Friday, October 5, 2024 • 4:08 PM Citizens Bank Park • Philadelphia, PA RHP Kodai Senga (1-0, 3.38) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57) FOX Sports 1 (FS1)
The New York Mets look to continue their incredible ride in Philadelphia this afternoon! Thursday night the Mets did the improbable. Pete Alonso launched a three-run home run in the top of the ninth to take the Mets from losing to winning a single moment. For the Mets, it has become their calling card – their ability to flip a game’s momentum in a single moment.
Now the Mets return to Citizens Bank Park, a park where they just dropped a three-game series in mid-September but came out strong in the first game, beating the Phillies to 11-3. Get the rally pumpkins ready, it’s October Baseball time!
What a surprise for the New York Mets tonight! Kodai Senga was rehabbing from a calf injury after his start in July. He had a setback in September which changed his status to “maybe in the postseason?”. He’s ready to go this afternoon and according to him, he can pitch anywhere between 10 and 200 pitches. In his only start this season he allowed only two runs from two hits against the Braves over 5 1/3 innings while striking out nine batters. Last season Senga had a spectacular start (seven innings, one hit, no runs) and a not-so-spectacular start (four runs, two earned, 5 1/3 innings) against the Phillies. The Phillies have the following career numbers against him:
The Mets will face off against an old friend tonight in Zack Wheeler. Over 32 games this season, his third season in his last four where he started 32 games, he pitched 200 innings with a 2.57 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 0.955 WHIP (league-leading), and a 158 ERA+. He’s been his excellent self in his last four starts, allowing seven runs over 26 1/3 innings (2.39 ERA, 2.75 FIP). This includes a start against the Mets where he allowed two runs over seven innings on September 22nd, a game the Mets won 2-1. The Mets have the following career numbers against Wheeler:
The Mets will play in the Division Series for the first time since 2015. Overall, it’s their ninth appearance in the series. The Mets are 12-4 all-time in the series.
The Mets are facing the Phillies in the Postseason for the first time in franchise history. The Mets are 2-4 against the NL East in the Postseason. The last time the Mets faced off against a divisional opponent was in 1999, when they faced the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS.
Kodai Senga is set to take the bump for the second time this season. He made one start on July 26 vs. Atlanta and allowed two earned runs on two hits with one walk and struck out nine over 5.1 innings. At the end of the start, he strained his left calf and has been on the 60-Day IL since then. He has made 30 career MLB starts, going 13-7 with a 2.99 ERA (57 ER/171.2 IP) with 78 walks and 211 strikeouts. He is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA (2 ER/12.1 IP) in two career starts against the Phillies.
Three Things To Watch For
Rest vs Momentum. Last season three 100-win teams were all eliminated in the division round, leading to an argument about the extra rest that the division winners got, allowing them to get rusty vs the teams that went through the wild card round. The Phillies have had a good amount of time since last Sunday to get rest, reset their lineup, etc. The Mets had an extra doubleheader and were the only team that played a wild card series to three games. If the Phillies are rusty, the Mets will need to jump on them early. If the Mets are tired, the Phillies will need to rob the Mets of their momentum early.
Mets Pitching. We are assuming that Senga is going to have a short outing followed by either Peterson or Megill. Peterson had a terrific start at the end of the season against the Brewers, holding them to one run over seven innings, and then closed the game on Thursday, allowing a hit and nothing else over one inning. His two starts before the Brewers were against the Phillies where he allowed five runs over 3 2/3 innings at Citi Field, and held the Phillies to one run over 7 2/3 innings at CBP. Tylor hasn’t pitched since the doubleheader on Monday where he allowed three runs over 5 2/3 innings. Before that he allowed one run over four innings against the Phillies.
Big Hits from the Big Bats. Both the Mets and Phillies have hitters that can change a game in the moment. For the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber is a lead-off home run-hitting machine. Between Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper, there is power up and down the lineup. The Mets have their own lead-off home run power in Francisco Lindor. Pete Alonso is coming off of the biggest swing in his life. Mark Vientos has been a revelation. In the regular season, the Mets hit 207 home runs and the Phillies had 198 (6th and 7th in the league respectively).
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