UFC Vegas 95 predictions
Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac, a rematch four years in the making!
OK, show of hands. How many of you didn’t know Saturday’s UFC Vegas 95 headliners had fought before? Be honest. Regardless, when you have two top-10 heavyweights ready to go, you have yourself a main event in the ESPN UFC era, so buckle up.
Tybura has done it all in the UFC except fight for a title. He just keeps chugging along into his 20th appearance for the promotion, having won more than he’s lost competing against some of the best heavyweights of his generation. This is also Tybura’s third straight Fight Night main event, so he has to be doing something right.
As strange as it sounds, Spivac remains one of the division’s most intriguing fighters, with a 7-4 record at just 29 years old. That’s youthful in heavyweight years! Since losing to Tybura four years ago, Spivac has won six of eight, with his setbacks coming at the hands of Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall. There’s no shame in that, but it’s fair to ask whether “Polar Bear” will ever surpass expectations.
Other main card highlights include a penultimate bout banger between Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal, bantamweight veteran Chris Gutierrez welcoming the undefeated Quang Le to the UFC, and Yana Santos in a do-or-die matchup against Chelsea Chandler (who didn’t come close to making weight on Friday).
What: UFC Vegas 95
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Aug. 10. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN and ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings)
Marcin Tybura (8) vs. Serghei Spivac (10)
When I re-watch Serghei Spivac’s first crack at Marcin Tybura, I don’t see an under-skilled fighter, just one who’s inexperienced. Spivac has improved and developed physically since then. I’m picking him to earn a measure of revenge and creep further up the heavyweight ranks.
Tybura isn’t a veteran to be counted out, of course. He’s the epitome of workmanlike. You can shrug at his main event bookings all you like, but the 38-year-old continues to find ways to win and to keep cashing UFC checks. There’s something admirable about that.
Could the thicker Tybura bully his way to another decision win? His grappling has taken him far in some difficult matchups, but Spivac is no slouch on the ground either. I just feel like Spivac — 25 years old and in just his third UFC fight when he first fought Tybura — was schooled by an older, wiser, opponent. Lesson learned.
Spivac’s improvements on the feet and maturity give him the edge in this rematch. After a slow first round that sees him fending off Tybura’s takedowns, Spivac turns up the heat in Round 2 and puts Tybura away with strikes.
Pick: Spivac
Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal
Love that Damon Jackson and Chepe Mariscal are getting such a high placement on the card, hate that Mariscal missed weight. That gaffe could have a material impact on this fight as so much of Mariscal’s game is predicated on being able to pressure for 15 minutes. Is the miss a sign that he’s not in tip-top shape, or did he eschew the stresses of a weight cut to make sure he’d be less drained for fight night? It’s impossible to say for sure.
If Mariscal is his usual self, this is his fight to lose. Jackson is tough, but historically not great fighting on the back foot. A slow start could prove costly for the 36-year-old, and if Mariscal hurts him early, this could be over in the opening five minutes.
That said, Jackson is always in great shape and he’s not going to take Mariscal’s weigh-in mistake lightly. Look for Jackson to make a point of being first, putting Mariscal off-balance to goad him into a mistake. Jackson is dangerous when he gets his offense going and no one should be surprised if he becomes the first to force Mariscal to tap out.
I’m expecting a fun back-and-forth battle that sees both fighters threatening to finish, only to be foiled by their opponent’s durability. Then it goes to Jackson earning a close win on the cards.
Pick: Jackson
Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but Danny “LeftHand2God” Barlow has a pretty great left hand.
How the orthodox Nikolay Veretennikov deals with Barlow’s methodical southpaw style will dictate much of how this fight goes. Veretennikov handily dealt with lefty Ashley Reece in his most recent win, but Reece’s reach is 10 inches shorter than Barlow’s and his power isn’t comparable. This is a whole new ballgame.
Barlow’s offense revolves more around single shots than combinations, which could leave openings for Veretennikov to close the distance. Veretennikov isn’t exactly known for his brawling style either, so this will likely be more of a chess match as the fighters battle to establish range.
So far, Barlow has lived up to the hype, so I see no reason to doubt him in this matchup. That monster left makes all the difference and Veretennikov stepping in on less than two weeks’ notice limited his time to prepare for Barlow’s setups. He’ll do his best given the circumstances, but it’s only a matter of time until Barlow connects with his signature weapon and ends this.
Pick: Barlow
Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le
Wild card time!
LFA veteran Quang Le steps in on less than a week’s notice for Javid Basharat, which is a favorable switch for Chris Gutierrez on paper. Quang is completely unproven outside of his limited regional experience and he’s taking an enormous jump up in competition here. I don’t like his chances.
Give this to Quang, he’s not timid. If anything, Gutierrez has to be careful not to let Quang rush him down and catch him with something random. Quang has great hand speed, so look for him to hang around in the UFC just based on his potential to incite brawls.
He’s going to have a hell of a time closing the distance against Gutierrez though. Gutierrez has fought better strikers than Quang, who just doesn’t have the standup vocabulary to throw something at Gutierrez that he hasn’t seen before. Gutierrez simply chops Quang’s legs to bits while the UFC newcomer is still adjusting to the bright lights of the octagon.
Props to Quang for taking this on short notice, but Gutierrez takes him out in the first.
Pick: Gutierrez
Yana Santos (9) vs. Chelsea Chandler
Seriously, what should we make of Chelsea Chandler?
The former Invicta FC standout came to the UFC with plenty of promise, only to make headlines for all the wrong reasons. She became a meme in her second UFC fight when she literally ran away from Norma Dumont and then followed that up with a pair of weight misses, including an egregious five-pound miss on Friday. On a positive note, she looked good against Josiane Nunes in a matchup that seemed destined to end with her flat on the canvas.
So I don’t know.
Yana Santos is in a serious slump, so she’s not the most inspiring pick on this card. Skill-wise, she should have more than enough in the toolbox to foil Chandler. No one would accuse Santos of lacking in the activity department as she’s constantly on the move, constantly looking for angles and ways to muddy up the fight. Where Chandler has the advantage is in raw power, which could be the difference if Santos has lost a step in Year 15 of her fighting career.
My gut tells me Santos outworks Chandler for a decision, but it’s hard for me to ignore the size advantage Chandler could have on fight night. Chandler avoids a straight striking battle and secures a few timely takedowns to win a decision.
Pick: Chandler
Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou
Toshiomi Kazama is uhhh, how you say, “not good?” And Charalampos Grigoriou could also be generally described as “not good.” This is not a very good main card opener.
I should take that last sentence back. If you’re looking for someone to get brained, then this opener is perfect, actually. Kazama has developed a fine reputation as someone whose head is a magnet for hard punches, while Grigoriou’s striking defense has holes of its own. If this goes to the scorecards, we should all feel let down.
Maybe I’m being too harsh on Kazama, but it just feels like Grigoriou is, how you say, “slightly less bad,” and that could make all the difference here. I’m going Grigoriou by knockout, either by capitalizing on a chaotic exchange or tackling Kazama and finishing with ground-and-pound.
Pick: Grigoriou
Preliminaries
Karol Rosa (8) def. Pannie Kianzad (10)
Jhonata Diniz def. Karl Williams