UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer Preview & Best Bets
A middleweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 236 as unranked prospect Joe Pyfer takes on No. 11 Jack Hermansson. Joe Pyfer is favored to win at -265.
A middleweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 236 as unranked prospect Joe Pyfer takes on No. 11 Jack Hermansson.
- Date: Saturday, February 10, 2024 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+
In a middleweight bout, Rodolfo “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira takes on Armen “Superman” Petrosyan. Vieira is 2-2 over his past four UFC fights but is one of the greatest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu athletes ever. Petrosyan has won back-to-back UFC contests, beating A.J. Dobson and Christian Leroy Duncan.
Petrosyan is three inches taller, but Vieira has a two-inch reach advantage. Vieira has better striking than you’d expect a one-dimensional fighter to have, but 89 percent of his wins are by submission. Meanwhile, Petrosyan is strictly a striker and will depend heavily on his takedown defense. This fight is all about Vieira’s wrestling and Petrosyan’s defense. If Vieira gets this fight to the ground, it’s over.
Vieira is a slight favorite at -122, but we must improve our payout and take him by submission.
Don’t Touchy 50KNo. 13 ranked featherweight Dan “50K” Ige faces Andre “Touchy” Fili. Ige is fresh off a September loss to Bryce Mitchell but had back-to-back wins going into that bout. Fili won his last time out against Lucas Almeida but has alternated wins and losses over his previous four contests.
Fili is four inches taller and has a three-inch reach advantage. Both fighters have similar knockdown and submission rates, but Ige wins by submission more than Fili. They also land significant strikes at a similar rate per minute at 3.76 and 3.86. However, Fili absorbs 0.1 more. Touchy is the more active wrestler, averaging 1.12 more takedowns per 15 minutes.
The line is pretty reasonable either way, but expect Ige to edge this one out at -176.
UFC Middleweight Main EventJack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
- Odds to Win: Hermansson +205 | Pyfer -265
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -130 | Submission +250 | Decision +280
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +290 | No -430
Jack “The Joker” Hermansson looks to stand in the way of Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer’s middleweight rise. Hermansson has alternated wins and losses over the past eight fights, dating back to 2019. Meanwhile, Pyfer has won five straight, three in the UFC, and all finishes (4 KO/TKO, 1 Submission).
Pyfer is one inch taller, but Hermansson has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. Bodybagz has significantly more power at 1.19 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Hermansson’s zero. Hermansson lands significant strikes at volume, averaging 5.13 per minute to Pyfer’s 3.64. However, Hermansson absorbs 1.35 more. Still, Pyfer averages 1.31 more takedowns per 15 minutes but will have to contend with The Joker’s 75 percent takedown defense rate.
Pyfer is riding quite a bit of momentum, and if he continues his finishing touch, expect it to be in the earlier rounds. Take Pyfer to win in Round 1, 2, or 3 at -115.
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer Betting Card- Vieira by submission (+180)
- Ige to win (-176)
- Pyfer Round 1, 2, or 3 (-115)
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