Who Will Dominate Men’s Boulder & Lead at the Paris Olympics?

With an athlete field this stacked, it's hard to pick winners. But these nine climbers are all poised to excel in Paris.

The post Who Will Dominate Men’s Boulder & Lead at the Paris Olympics? appeared first on Climbing.

No sane pundit can confidently predict who will win the men’s Combined Boulder & Lead event at Paris. In the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, where Speed was also one of the combined events, many people believed that the comp was a tossup between experienced competitors like Tomoa Narasaki, Adam Ondra, Alex Megos, and Jakob Schubert—yet only one of them even podiumed, and the far less famous Alberto Ginés López came out on top. But since speculating about the likely victors is part of the fun, I’ve identified nine climbers who are especially worth watching in Paris.

How Combined Boulder & Lead Sport Climbing event works

On Monday, August 5, 68 climbers will begin vying for medals at the Paris Olympics, competing in two separate disciplines. 40 of them (20 women, 20 men) will compete in the Combined Boulder & Lead discipline. The remaining 28 (14 women, 14 men) will compete in the Speed discipline. No climber is competing for both medals. Scoring for the Combined Boulder & Lead relies on the accumulation of points; in each round, there are 100 possible points on the boulders, and 100 possible points on the lead wall, with a perfect score—flashing all boulders and topping the lead route—being 200. The gold medalist in the Combined Boulder & Lead discipline will be the competitor who gets closest to that perfect score.

Nine climbers to watch

Listed in alphabetical order

Sorato Anraku

Japan’s Sorato Anraku is only 17 years old, but perhaps that’s why he feels like the quintessential competitor of climbing’s Olympic era. For the two years that Anraku has been competing on the adult World Cup circuit, the Combined discipline has been at the forefront of comp discourse—meaning that Anraku has grown up giving equal weight to both bouldering and lead training. The fact that this has worked for him is evidenced by the World Cup hardware earned in each discipline last year—two medals in bouldering and four medals in Lead.

Anraku capped his rookie season in 2023 by dominating the early rounds of the World Championships in Bern, Switzerland, but he struggled on a persnickety dyno in the Boulder discipline, got barely outclimbed by Austria’s Jakob Schubert in Lead, and fell above the headwall in the climax of the Combined discipline… yet still came away with a silver medal. (For comparison, consider that Adam Ondra’s rookie World Championships resulted in a bronze medal in Lead.) Anraku earned an Olympic berth three months later by winning an Asian Continental event.

While Anraku’s youth and relative inexperience should be considered X-factors at the Paris Olympics, those are offset by the fact that he is so undeniably great in both categories. Some people are calling Anraku the sport’s next “generational talent,” and there would be no better stage for that anointment than the upcoming Olympics.

Career highlight: It feels like Sorato Anraku’s best highlight is yet to come, but winning two Lead World Cups in a row in 2023 should be seen as his performative pinnacle right now.

Why he could win in Paris: Anraku has participated in 17 World Cups and finished Top 5 in all but four of them. In fact, he’s finished in the Top 3 in ten World Cups—an unprecedented performance record for someone so young.

Colin Duffy

When Colin Duffy qualified for the Tokyo Olympics in 2020, it surprised many people. Duffy was only 16 at the time, and many pundits expected the Tokyo Olympic berth to be secured by Sean Bailey or Zach Galla, both of whom were older and more experienced. Young Duffy soon proved that he absolutely belonged at those Tokyo Olympics, finishing in seventh place out of a field of 20.

Now that it’s 2024, Colin Duffy does not feel at all like a surprising Olympic selection. He’s equally proficient in Boulder and Lead, having earned World Cup medals in both, and is widely regarded as one of the best American competition climbers of his generation. In some ways, he feels like the USA’s answer to Sorato Anraku, and it’s not hard to envision Anraku and Duffy neck-and-neck after the Paris Olympics’ bouldering portion, with all the intrigue and the gold medal implications funneling into the lead route.

Career highlights: Colin Duffy won a Lead World Cup and a Boulder World Cup in Innsbruck midway through the 2022 season. But more recently, he won the World Cup in Chamonix on July 14 of this year.

Why he could win in Paris: Duff’s recent World Cup victory in Chamonix proves that he’s peaking at just the right time for the Paris Olympics, and it also likely gave Duffy the best possible confidence boost.

Jesse Grupper

The United States’s Jesse Grupper had a slow-burn rise to the top of the competitor field. He initially hit the World Cup circuit in 2017 but took part in just a single competition and then skipped the 2018 year entirely. When he returned to the circuit in 2019, his results were mostly middle-of-the-road—22nd place in Villars, 67th place in Chamonix, 56th in Briançon. Then the 2020 season was canceled as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Granted, Grupper won two national championships around the time—in 2019 and 2021—but since his international competitions up to that point had been so limited, it seemed like his climbing journey might lead him down some other, non-competitive path (as was briefly indicated by his impressive flash of Livin Astro (5.14c) in 2021.

When he returned to the circuit in 2022 at age 25, Grupper had a slow start in the Boulder World Cups before surprising the field by taking command in Lead, reaching the podiums at Innsbruck and Villars and then winning his first World Cup in Briançon. Now, at age 27 and having won the 2023 Pan American Games, Grupper is a qualified Olympian. It makes for a peculiar mix; with age as a metric, Grupper is a pseudo-veteran, but since he didn’t start winning until a couple years ago, he still feels like a relative newcomer to the highest echelon. Grupper has battled some injuries lately, including a knee injury last year and a finger injury that limited his training for much of the early summer. He has also been open about having ulcerative colitis, which complicates competitions for him. But this adversity, and his near-constant smile, make Grupper a competitor for whom you cannot help but cheer.

Career highlights: Jesse Grupper’s win at the Pan Ams last year, which entailed besting other American crushers like Sean Bailey and Zach Galla, confirmed that Grupper is a force to be reckoned with in the Combined discipline.

Why he could win in Paris: There are better boulderers, but fans would be hard-pressed to name a more bankable Lead crusher than Grupper.

Dohyun Lee

There was some humorous confusion a couple years ago when South Korea’s Dohyun Lee started to refer to compatriot Jongwon Chon as his “older brother” in interviews. But while the two Korean teammates were not actually related, fans could be forgiven for having taken Lee’s words literally. After all, Lee had come to prominence on the Boulder World Cup circuit right on the heels of Chon’s appearance at the Tokyo Olympics, and the two shared a dynamic and lithe climbing style that at times looked uncannily similar. It was as if Chon, seven years the elder, had trained Dohyun Lee to be a performative mirror-image. Lee earned his first World Cups medal—a silver at Innsbruck—in 2022 and took a gold in Prague in 2023, so he was still a relative newcomer when he earned his Olympic berth as the top qualifier in the Olympic Qualifier Series. Even though Lee recently tweaked his shoulder, he remains one of the major players at the upcoming Paris Olympics.

Career highlight (thus far): Lee’s first place in the standings of the Olympic Qualifier Series is very impressive given the strong field—and there was arguably nobody else who looked more impressive in that multi-city, multi-date event.

Why he could win in Paris: Lee possesses the perfect mix of youth (he’s 21) and experience (having taken part in the 2019 and 2023 World Championships).

Alberto Ginés López

Spain’s Alberto Ginés López has had one of the most fascinating careers of any active competitor. Three years ago, when most of his contemporaries decided to abstain from participating in World Cups in the run-up to the Tokyo Olympics, Ginés López competed in more than half a dozen of them. It was a risky strategy—inviting overtraining, mental fatigue, and potential injury—that, not surprisingly, raised eyebrows from pundits. But Ginés López got the last laugh when he took Olympic gold in Tokyo.

In the years since then, injuries have kept Ginés López from lighting the World Cup circuit on fire; and his 29th place finish in the Combined discipline at last year’s World Championships was particularly disappointing. But just as some fans were ready to write off Ginés López, he besterd his injuries and surged back to the top at the Olympic Qualifier Series this year. Having already defied the odds by winning Gold once, I don’t think anyone is ready to write him off this year.

Career highlight (thus far): Alberto Ginés López has had some success in World Cups, including earning a bronze medal (in Lead) last year in Koper. But, of course, the gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics is what he’s most remembered for.

Why he could win in Paris: And the Olympic Qualifier Series—particularly the leg in Shanghai—proved that he’s recovered from his injuries and is climbing better than he was at this time last summer. And, as the defending Olympic champion, Ginés López should enter the Paris Olympics with more confidence than anyone else. He’s done it once; there’s no reason to think he cannot do it again.

Tomoa Narasaki

Japan’s Tomoa Narasaki debuted on the World Cup circuit in 2012, but he did not start consistently finishing in the Top 5 until 2016, right as parkour was starting to influence the bouldering discipline in a significant way. Narasaki thrived as setting styles came to favor more dynamic, coordinated moves on volumes. Over the next few seasons, Narasaki naturally developed a fan base because he was so proficient at bouldering’s newfangled, highly entertaining style. As the dynos grew bigger and the run-and-jumps got more complex, Narasaki made podium after podium and became the face of the new-age bouldering at the World Cup level. But then, in 2017, Narasaki started also doing well in Lead World Cups—where the parkour style remains subordinate to the small-hold resistance style. And then, in the run up to Tokyo, he started doing well in Speed too, even inventing the “Tomoa Skip,” a variation on the speed route that bears his name. He was considered a favorite at the Tokyo Olympics, but a rough set of final boulders and a low fall on the lead route dashed his hopes for hardware. Now he’s back for revenge, and he’s once again considered a favorite.

Career highlights: In addition to numerous World Cup victories, Narasaki’s first-place finish in the Boulder, Lead, and Combined disciplines at the Asian Continental Championships in 2016 were stirring—as were his wins of the Boulder World Championships in 2016 and in 2019.

Why he could win in Paris: Narasaki is arguably the best coordination boulderer in the men’s field, and if the set of blocs in Paris fits Narasaki’s dynamic predilections, he will crush. If he can follow that up with a solid Lead performance, he could be uncatchable.

Adam Ondra

The only competitor in the Combined discipline to truly rival Jakob Schubert’s (see below) veteran status is the Czech Republic’s Adam Ondra. At 31 years old, Ondra is slightly younger than Schubert, yet Ondra is perhaps even more revered by the general climbing public (i.e., climbers beyond the diehard comp fan base) because of his historic accomplishments on real rock, where he’s climbed at the highest level in all the disciplines. In addition to being the first climber to establish a climb graded 5.15c (La Dura Dura) and a climb graded 5.15d (Silence), he’s climbed the Dawn Wall (a 5.14d Yosemite big wall), onsighted 5.14d, flashed 5.15a, climbed the world’s hardest trad grade, and done the first ascent of one of the world’s hardest unrepeated boulders, Terranova, which some think may have been the world’s first V17.

Those outdoor sends veil Ondra’s comp achievements, which are historic in their own right and include winning the World Championships in 2014, 2016, and 2019. While Ondra is not synonymous with modern bouldering’s parkour style in the way that someone like Tomoa Narasaki is, he possesses one of the greatest climbing minds of all-time and often manages to find creative beta that bypasses full-on coordination sequences. Frankly, there is not a single accolade at the highest level of comp climbing that Ondra has not yet earned… except an Olympic medal.

Career highlight: Adam Ondra claimed World Championship gold medals in both Boulder and Lead in 2014; he was the first person to ever win both simultaneously.

Why he could win in Paris: A gold medal at a Lead World Cup in Chamonix in 2022, as well as a silver medal at a Lead World Cup in Villars last year, proved that Ondra can beat younger competitors in both disciplines.

Toby Roberts

In April, when Great Britain’s Toby Roberts won the second Lead World Cup of his career, it felt like a throwback to the nascent days of the World Cup circuit—a time when Great Britain’s Simon Nadin perpetually battled against France’s Didier Raboutou, Jacky Godoffe, and J.B. Tribout. That’s not to imply that there have not been some captivating male British competitors in the three decades that separated Nadin’s two World Cup golds in 1989 from Roberts’ two wins in 2023, but Roberts does feel cast in an old-school mode in the best way. When he was 15, he became the youngest British climber in history to send the 5.14d grade (Steve McClure’s Rainshadow). Now, he “obsesses” about the condition of his skin and is a multi-time national champion. And since Great Britain didn’t send a male climber to the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Roberts’s qualification for the Paris Olympics (earned when he won a European Continental event a few months ago) carried its own historic significance. Yet what’s truly fascinating is Roberts’s cerebral approach to his entire Olympic qualification, which entailed a six-year training plan! It’s safe to assume that, with a little adjustment, that same methodical plan is now locked onto a new goal: Olympic victory.

Career highlight: Beating Japan’s Sorato Anraku, USA’s Jesse Grupper, Germany’s Alex Megos, and France’s Sam Avezou (among others) to win a gold medal at the Lead World Cup in Chamonix, France, in 2023.

Why he could win in Paris: Roberts has admitted that the pressure to perform affected his climbing at the 2023 World Championships, where he fell just above the headwall in the lead portion of the Combined discipline and resultantly took fifth. But that performance undoubtedly forged valuable experience that may allow him to stay more relaxed under pressure at the Olympics.

Jakob Schubert

Austria’s 33-year-old Jakob Schubert has been on the World Cup circuit for 17 years and amassed 25 Lead gold medals and 11 Boulder medals (three of which were gold). He is also one of only three men to have climbed 5.15d,  famously livestreaming his send of B.I.G. in Flatanger, Norway, approximately one year ago. Of course, for the purposes of Paris Olympics hype and postulation, it’s really only pertinent to look at Schubert’s competition results from the past few seasons—but even those tell an incredible story: Schubert won a Lead World Cup in Villars last year, and he earned a bronze medal at a Boulder World Cup this year, underscoring how incredibly good he still is at each discipline. Perhaps most telling, however, is that he won the Combined discipline at last year’s World Championships in Bern, beating a field of nearly 70 competitors to clinch his Olympic ticket. If veteran experience counts for anything (which I think it does), then Jakob Schubert has a major advantage over most of the field.

Career highlights: Take your pick: Schubert won a gold medal in Lead at the World Championships in 2012, and he also won a gold medal in Lead at the World Championships in 2018.

Why he could win in Paris: Schubert was a bronze medalist at the Tokyo Olympics, and that was when the Combined discipline (which included Speed at the time) did not particularly suit his natural skill set. There’s no reason to think he won’t do even better in Paris.

The post Who Will Dominate Men’s Boulder & Lead at the Paris Olympics? appeared first on Climbing.