Phillies news and rumors 3/25: Team projected to have best bullpen in MLB

Sure, but did they have the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the second half last year? Given how bad the early 2020s were in the realm of Phillies bullpens, it still feels a little weird — though entirely correct — to consider the current unit a strength. But Sunday brought a new level of praise, with […]

Sure, but did they have the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the second half last year?

Given how bad the early 2020s were in the realm of Phillies bullpens, it still feels a little weird — though entirely correct — to consider the current unit a strength. But Sunday brought a new level of praise, with FanGraphs projecting the Phillies to have the best bullpen in MLB.

It’s based on FanGraphs WAR projections, which gives the Phillies’ group a 4.8 mark, 0.6 clear of second place, the Atlanta Braves. A 4.8 fWAR might not be enough to lead the league — 11 teams elicited that mark or higher out of their relief corps last year — but the point stands that the projection is bullish on the group.

It’s easy to see why. The Phillies ranked third in bullpen fWAR last year, as well as seventh in ‘pen ERA. Part of that can certainly be attributed to usage. The group was the least-taxed bullpen in the league, with its 543 1/3 innings ranking last in MLB, thanks to at least 192 innings from each of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and the overall production the Phillies got from their starting rotation. That isn’t some anomaly, though. Those two pitchers are known to be workhorses, and the bullpen can expect a similar lack of stress this season. That would only boost production for a group that figures to excel even with a league-average workload.

Even if you think Jeff Hoffman should regress somewhat to the mean this year, you can argue the exact opposite of Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto, whose 2023 seasons were both harmed by inconsistency. José Alvarado has, at this point, established himself as one of the best relievers in the sport, Matt Strahm’s performance in a versatile role earned him a contract extension and Orion Kerkering — whose season-opening injured-list stint isn’t expected to be a long one — could pitch his way into the closer role.

The elephant in the room is the departure of Craig Kimbrel, whose rough postseason didn’t change his 3.26 ERA across 69 regular-season innings last year. They’ll have to find a way to replace that. Maybe they should’ve just signed Josh Hader. But maybe the answer begins and ends with Kerkering. It’s easy to imagine a world in which he, plus some minor improvements from Domínguez and Soto, account for Kimbrel’s production, and the pitching staff as a whole stays healthy enough to replace the volume.

The bullpen will be given a boost if the starting rotation lives up to its billing again, and that group is also viewed among the league’s elite heading into the season. MLB.com ranked it the third-best in the league, behind the Mariners and Braves, so if you aggregate the two units based on respective rankings, you can say the pitching staff as a whole is tied with Atlanta’s for the very best in baseball.

Just imagining such a world is a far cry from the proclamations, outlined seven paragraphs ago, of Andy MacPhail when the Phillies’ bullpen was about to make history for all the wrong reasons just a few short years ago.

Must-read Phillies content

Sunday saw a flurry of Phillies news, much of it with roster implications. Catch up our coverage on all of it:

• They traded Jake Cave, from Bailey Digh.
• They extended Matt Strahm, from Destiny Lugardo.
• They still want a lefty-hitting outfielder, from Destiny.
• Taijuan Walker will start the season on the injured list, from Destiny.
• Johan Rojas’ and Cristian Pache’s Opening Day roster outlooks, from Tim Kelly.
• And in case you missed the last Tiny Mic video from PN’s Grace Del Pizzo, please watch and join in on being disappointed in Matt Strahm.

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