Raptors Draft Watch: Buying Low in Isaiah Collier

Isaiah Collier’s draft stock has plummeted over the past few months, but should the Toronto Raptors “buy low” and take a chance — and perhaps, hit the jackpot?

Up next on our Raptors Draft Watch prospect series is Isaiah Collier. Collier is his class’s #1 ranked high school prospect but had a tumultuous season as a USC Trojan, which is why we are discussing him as a potential 19th pick instead of someone who should be in the mix for the top half of the lottery spot.

An injury-riddled freshman season led to inconsistent production and poor performance at times, but it did show more than flashes of excellence—things that should translate well at the NBA level. There’s also an argument to be made that coaching and a lack of better-fitting, heck, just make it “decent” teammates made it a difficult environment for him to succeed.

Collier’s form after coming back from a layoff from an injury showed us a glimpse of what he can do, showcasing the things that made him one of the top high school prospects in the nation. He capped off his lone Trojan season by putting up his best stretch, averaging 17.6 points, 3.3 boards, 4.5 dimes, and two stocks while shooting 37.5% from behind the arc on three attempts. He also got to the line at least six times per game. Could he be hiding in plain sight?

Why Isaiah?

Let’s face it. The chances of landing a marquee talent outside the lottery range are slim. If Isaiah Collier drops and is still on the board when the Raptors are on the clock, President Masai Ujiri and GM Bobby Webster shouldn’t overthink this decision. A “distressed lottery talent” rarely drops this far, and there are only three such prospects in this draft (Collier, Nikola Topic, Kel’el Ware).

Every year, a distressed lottery talent would slide like Cam Whitmore last year and Jaden McDaniels a few years ago. With the Raptors able to pick again after 11 turns, it’s a good gamble to take a swing like this.

Collier is one of the best facilitators in this draft. He’s exceptionally dangerous in the open court and semi-transition, using his ability to get to the basket or his vision to find open teammates. In the half court, Collier’s really patient operating in ball screens, comfortable staying in the pocket and assessing his options, while capable of making every possible scenario happen — from scoring in the floater range, going strong for a layup, spinning around the help defender, drawing a foul, hitting the roll man, a teammate at the dunker’s spot, or finding a kick out option around the perimeter.

Overall, Collier’s ability to “touch the paint” AND be a multi-threat weapon is elite, and it should translate well, especially with better finishers around him and possibly better spacers as well.

Collier hasn’t shown consistent explosive first step, and we could probably partly blame injuries. Still, his combination of handles, footwork, change of speed/gears, feints, and bully ball to generate advantage should translate well at the NBA level.

Collier’s perimeter shooting is one of the reasons why he’s outside of the lottery on most mock drafts, but his post-injury stats looked encouraging — he shot 37.5% on three attempts. He’s much better at catch-and-shoot than pulling up for the trifecta, which should help him stay on the court.

Mock Draft

• ESPN: 21 (New Orleans Pelicans)
• NBADraft.NET: 16 (Philadelphia 76ers)
• Tankathon: 17 (Los Angeles Lakers)
• The Ringer: 22 (Phoenix Suns)
• No Ceilings: 21 (New Orleans Pelicans)
• NBA Draft Room: 19 (Toronto Raptors)
• The Athletic: 16 (Philadelphia 76ers)
• Bleacher Report: 16 (Philadelphia 76ers)
• SB Nation: 10 (Utah Jazz)
• For The Win: 27 (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• CBS (Boone): 10 (Utah Jazz)
• CBS (Parrish): 11 (Chicago Bulls)
• CBS (Finkelstein): 16 (Philadelphia 76ers)
• CBS (Cobb): 14 (Portland Trail Blazers)
• CBS (Branham): 21 (New Orleans Pelicans)
• CBS (Ward-Henninger): 15 (Miami Heat)
• CBS (Salerno): 19 (Toronto Raptors)

Areas of Concern

Unfortunately, some issues have caused Collier’s stock to drop this far. At the macro level, considering the number of offers he received, his decision to go to USC wasn’t the best idea. The coaching was a train wreck; they struggled to balance the poor roster construct and the circus that came with one of their bench players.

While Collier would have probably fared well, say, if he played with Adem Bona and Aday Mara, we couldn’t give him a complete pass for the disastrous Trojans season. His productivity doesn’t consistently match his usage rate, and his turnover issues — rooted in being sloppy with the ball, settling, and sometimes getting too deep without a plan B — didn’t help.

Collier’s perimeter shooting is inconsistent at best, and it’s clearly not one of his first two options unless he’s feeling it. He has only attempted more than five perimeter shots once throughout the season. His shooting isn’t that bad, but it could use some tweaks here and there.

Another area of concern is Collier’s OG Anunoby-like knack for getting injured. In November, he suffered knee and ankle injuries days apart that limited him from practice. In December, he exited a game, injuring his left knee when he drove to the basket. Then we have the hand injury that cost him several weeks and pretty much dashed their team’s hopes of getting to the big dance. Back in high school, he also suffered a shoulder injury.

Could those injuries have contributed to Coller being more of an under-the-rim finisher? He’s only 6’2.5” w/o shoes, with only a +2.25 wingspan and a Max Vert of only 34” — for comparison, Devin Carter’s just a shade shorter but boasts a 42” Max Vert. But hey, at least he’s got the jelly finish package.

Aside from that, perhaps the most disappointing part is Collier’s defense. He’s shown flashes of making good reads playing the passing lane. However, given how he sees the floor as a playmaker and his physical tools, it’s disappointing that he can’t even be a neutral defender on every down. In a way, he’s still got the AAU in him, where kids don’t need to play good individual and team defense at all times because they can always get the score back in a hurry.

Raptors Fit

With the Raptors, Isaiah Collier should be at least a backup point guard. If he can defend better and provide decent spot-up shooting, he might not be a bad option to start alongside Immanuel Quickley in the backcourt. Collier should be able to generate scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates, especially when coach Darko Rajakovic’s halfcourt offense doesn’t go anywhere.

Jakob Poeltl, while his days as a Raptor may be numbered, should see Collier as a welcome addition, as the latter should be capable of being a PnR operator at the next level. Having stability in the backcourt is undervalued and something that the Raptors learned the hard way these past two seasons.

Now, if Collier’s perimeter shooting comes along, we could be looking at one of the steals of the draft and, perhaps, another player to add to this team’s young core. In a way, Collier is the opposite of Immanuel Quickley. Their paint touches present differing threats, with Quickley looking for routes avoiding defenders, while Collier is much more open and, sometimes, seeking the contact. He’s probably got a much better decision-making package at the PnR pocket than Quickley, and the latter can concentrate on scoring when these two point guards share the floor.

A “Forderon” situation could happen, and while that situation might not be ideal, that’s a welcome problem that could be better resolved with modern coaching and playstyles this time around. At the 19th spot, it’s hard to pass up high-level talent and a potential star upside like this, and if Collier continues to hide in plain sight, the Raptors shouldn’t think too hard and take him right away.