Good-McGuire matchup could head to a recount next month

Final results of the intra-GOP brawl in the 5th district between U.S. Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire might be a ways off.

With McGuire’s lead of about 300 votes and yet-to-be received mail-in ballots, the race hasn’t been called in any candidates’ favor just yet. A busy week of work lies ahead for the Virginia Department of Elections to count votes and for the state’s Board of Elections to certify results on July 2. From there, the Good-McGuire matchup could be headed for a recount.

Virginia law allows for candidates to request a recount if the margins are less than 1%. Such was the case last fall when Kimberly Pope Adams challenged Del. Kim Taylor, R-Dinwiddie, to represent the 82nd district in Virginia’s House of Delegates. After ostensibly losing by 78 votes, the recount confirmed that Taylor had topped Adams by 53 votes.

As of Thursday, Good’s campaign did not respond to an inquiry into whether he is considering a recount, but he noted optimism in a social media post on Wednesday.

“This race remains too close to call. We are in a period where the law provides a process for evaluating the accuracy of all the vote totals from election day to ensure everyone can have full confidence in the certified results,” he wrote. “Provisional ballots and mail-in ballots are also still to be counted. We are asking for full transparency from the officials involved and patience from the people of the 5th District over the coming weeks as the certification of results is completed. We believe we can still prevail.”

Indeed, the Department of Elections will receive mail-in ballots by noon Friday, as long as they have been postmarked on or before election day. The department will also review and verify provisional ballots, which are typically used when someone forgot identification while voting or if someone is registering on the same day that they’re voting.

After all the various ballots are counted, the state board of elections will certify election results on July 2. Once completed, Good would have 10 days to file a petition for a recount if he meets the less than 1% threshold.

While the 5th Congressional District is reliably Republican-leaning, the primary matchup between Good and McGuire was hotly contested — at times drawing national attention. More locally, it represented the lawmakers’ different factions and styles. Good hails from Campbell County where he served on its board of supervisors and McGuire has represented the Goochland area in the state legislature for several years.

Good has previously been insulated by a convention nominating process with tuned-in party activists while his challenge from McGuire is the first time he’s defended his seat in a district-wide primary.

But former President Donald Trump loomed large in the Virginia race. Aside from the various high-profile congresspeople who stumped for both men and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon rallying with Good — Trump backed McGuire.

Though Good has been a longtime fan of the once-and-possibly-future president, it’s his brief endorsement of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis last summer before he dropped out of the presidential race that has haunted Good. He backed DeSantis shortly after indictments were levied against Trump for cases that are still playing out in court. When DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race, Good supported Trump again.

McGuire’s campaign went on to label Good a “Never Trumper.”

“By definition, you can’t be a ‘Never Something’ that you have documented evidence that you currently are (a supporter of),” Good said at a campaign event this year.

U.S. Rep. Bob Good, R-Va, has been sent a cease and desist letter from former President Donald Trump for including his name on signs, despite his endorsement for Good’s opponent John McGuire.

But Trump didn’t forget the months Good boosted his former opponent and fealty to Trump emerged as a key issue between the candidates leading up to the primary.

“John McGuire has my complete and total endorsement,” Trump said in a tele-rally for McGuire ahead of the election. “I want that to be understood, because Bob Good’s going around saying we’re friends. I mean, he was fine the last six months, but before that, he was a basic disaster.”

While Trump loyalty was a litmus test that attracted national attention, congressional races are still somewhat local in nature.

“If there’s one thing I guess we can take away is that a Trump endorsement alone — even in one of our most conservative districts — does not necessarily guarantee an outcome,” Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner said during a press call on Thursday.

Whoever wins will face Democrat nominee Gloria Tinsley Witt in November’s general election. A Republican-leaning district, voters have historically favored GOP candidates, though Democrat Tom Periello represented the district from 2009 to 2011.

In the meantime, McGuire believes he’s likely won. On election night, he called it an “honor” to be the Republican nominee and echoed his stance on X this week.

“There are still a few votes left to count,” he wrote. “But it’s clear that all paths end with a victory.”

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