Winning these 2 states would make Harris or Trump 'overwhelming favorites' to win election

The breakdown of Electoral College math changed after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. But two battlegrounds remain must-win states in the contest between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

According to the Wall Street Journal, both campaigns have zeroed in on Georgia and Pennsylvania as the cornerstones to their overall victory. While there are other hotly contested swing states up for grabs like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, there is a growing consensus among both Democrats and Republicans that their most direct path to 270 requires securing both Georgia and Pennsylvania in their own respective win columns. Democratic strategist and former Bill Clinton adviser Doug Sosnik described those states as the two major "pivot points" in the 2024 race.

"If Trump can win Pennsylvania or Harris can win Georgia, I think they are then overwhelming favorites to win the election,” Sosnik said. “It’s still possible for Trump to win without Georgia, it’s still possible for Harris to win without Pennsylvania, but it’s a lot more difficult."

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The Trump campaign has reportedly outlined their easiest path to victory as winning the three swing states of Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania ahead of all others. Should Republicans carry those three states, they could secure an election-clinching 271 Electoral College votes even if they lost all other battleground states including Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Alternatively, Democrats have identified Georgia and Pennsylvania as the linchpins to keeping the White House. If Harris won in Georgia and Pennsylvania, she would only need one other state between Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin to go her way. Losing all but Wisconsin — which has the fewest electoral votes between those four states — would still leave her with exactly 270 electoral votes, assuming Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District remains in Democratic hands.

Both Georgia and Pennsylvania have been subjected to a deluge of political spending given their importance in deciding the election. The Journal reported that both Harris and Trump and their allied super PACs have spent more than $85 million in Pennsylvania alone since Biden exited the race. Meanwhile, Trump is currently spending more in the Peach State than Harris, committing $25.4 million to her $17.5 million.

Polls in each state show Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck. FiveThirtyEight's aggregated polling data for Pennsylvania shows that the candidates are in a statistical tie in the first surveys of Keystone State voters taken since the Democratic National Convention. Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in Georgia polls, though the former president is still within the margin of error in the Peach State, which has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1996 with the exception of 2020.

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Harris' path to 270 is slightly more varied than Biden's was prior to him dropping out of the race. Previously, the Biden campaign placed all of its hopes on keeping the so-called "Blue Wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from flipping red, as they did in 2016. But with Harris at the top of the ticket, Democrats are once again competitive in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, as Biden had never once polled ahead of Trump in any polls taken of voters in those states since the start of 2024.

Dan Kanninen, who is the Harris campaign's director of battleground states, told the Journal that while he expects the major swing states to be "really competitive again this time around," he's confident Democrats will outwork Republicans between now and November 5.

"We have a record of winning close races in these states—and in Pennsylvania and Georgia, our record is stronger than Team MAGA,” he said.

Click here to read the Journal's report in its entirety (subscription required).