MLB Today: Milwaukee Turning Around Slow Start
This week, former MLB closer Octavio Dotel died in a horrific nightclub accident in the Dominican Republic; Shohei Ohtani shook off a mini slump on Monday, finishing just a double shy of a cycle; and eating tainted wings forced Cody Bellinger out of the starting lineup (and, assumedly, to the bathroom) on Tuesday. Some other Fantasy baseball stories we’re following include…
Chad Patrick Staking his Claim to Rotation Spot
The Milwaukee Brewers last missed the playoffs in 2022, when they won just 86 games, but since then they’ve posted campaigns of 92 and 93 victories. This season, however, their modest streak of two straight postseason appearances could be in jeopardy.
Through 11 games, the Brew Crew is just over .500 and finds itself two games back in the Wild Card race. No biggie this early, but Milwaukee was projected by most experts to finish below 85 wins, so regression won’t be a surprise. And it’s taken six wins over the last seven games just to erase a very sluggish start (0-4).
Still, from a Fantasy perspective, with Milwaukee in Colorado this week, it’s a great time to start your fringe Brewers.
On the pitching side, rookie Chad Patrick has come out of nowhere to catch our eye as someone to consider, or at least monitor. He had a rough MLB debut in relief, but has looked solid in his two starts (one run over 10 IP), earning his first career win on Sunday with two-hit ball over 5 1/3 frames after tossing shutout ball in his first start.
We’re loving the ERA and hit rates from the Purdue Northwest product (see video below), but he’ll need to improve his control to survive in the rotation. A 2021 fourth round pick by Arizona, Patrick enjoyed a breakthrough campaign at Triple-A last year, going 14-1 with a 2.90 ERA while whiffing 145 over 136 1/3 IP. If the walk rate he flashed there can emerge in the bigs, we’ll be onto something here.
There’s a great opportunity in the Milwaukee rotation given injuries to Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, Nick Mears and Brandon Woodruff, so if Patrick – who was ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season before the health woes necessitated him sticking around – can keep limiting runs, he could get a longer run that anticipated.
That could make him someone to consider for your Fantasy team, and if he enjoys one more solid start, you better jump. For now, pay attention, but be aware that he’s been lucky so far (xFIP of 5.72).
Merrill Kelly Helps Snakes End Skid
The Arizona Diamonbacks suffered through a 110-loss season in 2021, but have steadily improved since then, rising to 74 wins in 2022, then 84 (when they shockingly went to the World Series) and ultimately 89 last year.
This season, the Snakes are off to a sluggish start, plodding along at a .500 mark through the first dozen contests, putting them 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race. On Monday, Arizona dropped a 5-1 decision (to B-More), marking the first time its offense didn’t manage at least three runs, so it’s little surprise that FanDuel lists the team at +1100 to be the last in the bigs to be shut out.
At any rate, on Tuesday, the D-Backs bounced back to snap their three-game skid, as starter Merrill Kelly turned things around after a rough first inning. He pitched well in his season debut, but was simply molested by the Yankees (as has every starter) on Thursday, so when he gave up a two-run single in the first inning on Tuesday, it looked like he was headed for another short night.
Kelly really got in a groove after that, sending down 12 straight batters until a two-out error in the fifth. All told, he stuck around for six innings for his second win, surrendering three hits and three runs (two earned) with four Ks against two walks for his best outing of the season.
Kelly went a sweet 5-1 last year, but had his worst ERA since 2021 and missed most of the season with a shoulder strain. This year, he’s pitched well in two of three starts, but his ERA remains bloated because of that Yankee beatdown. Kelly has been dumped in many leagues this week, but we think that’s a mistake; think about his 2022-23 performance when he was healthy before you jettison him. And if he has been dumped in your league, grab him if you can – especially if his command starts turning around like it did on Tuesday.
Waiver Wire Pick of the Week
Zac Veen, OF, Colorado Rockies (ESPN: 6.2 per cent; CBS: 47 per cent): A former Top 100 Prospect who dropped off our list this season, Veen has been promoted to Colorado and made his MLB debut on Tuesday, recording a hit in the process. It’s been a long wait for the ninth overall pick in 2020, but after just missing out on winning a job this spring, he’s finally arrived in the Show. Veen was absolutely killing it at Triple-A, forcing the Rockies’ hands, and now wise Fantasy owners will jump all over his mix of tremendous speed, decent pop and solid on-base skills.
RotoRob Tune of the Day
Uriah Heep has undergone tons of personnel changes over their lengthy career, with just the one original member left (Mick Box). Here’s “Look at Yourself,” another track from their 1973 album Uriah Heep Live.
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