Astros series preview: Signs of struggle
The buzz on the Astros is they may not be what they once were.
The Astros have been in the ALCS in each of the last seven seasons, winning four pennants and two titles. But they fired GM James Click after the 2022 season and last year their 90 wins were their fewest wins in a full season since 2016. This year, the Astros have stumbled out of the game, falling to a four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees to start the season. They’ve won four of seven since then, including a no-hitter by Ronel Blanco, who the Royals will fortunately miss this series.
Houston Astros (4-7) vs. Kansas City Royals (6-4) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Astros: 4.27 runs scored/game (17th in MLB), 4.18 runs allowed/game (10th)
Royals: 4.40 runs scored/game (16th), 2.50 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Jose Altuve continues to be a lightning rod due to his involvement in the sign-stealing scandal in 2017, one of the few players still in Houston from that era. The 34-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down, and is currently ninth among all hitters in wRC at 206 with a line of .341/.408/.636. Yordan Alvarez is not far behind him with a line of .295/.367/.614 as he continues to be one of the most feared sluggers in baseball.
On the flip side, José Abreu was looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 season, but is off to a 2-for-30 start with 11 strikeouts. The Astros are one of the hardest teams to strike out - as a team they have struck out just 18.4 percent of the time, the third-lowest rate in baseball.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
All-Star left-hander Framber Valdez was scratched from his scheduled start Tuesday with an elbow injury. The Astros will instead turn to Cristian Javier who hasn’t given up a run through 11 innings in his first two starts, with opponents hitting just 5-for-37 against him. Javier throws a 92 mph four-seamer with a slider and a changeup that generated a 39.2 percent whiff rate last year.
Hunter Brown won 11 games in his rookie season last year, but with an ERA over five, and the Royals roughed him up for six runs in three innings last September. He has had a rocky start this year, with six runs allowed in seven innings with six walks. He had a groundball rate over 50 percent last year, relying on a four-seamer, cutter, splitter, and a knuckle curve.
J.P. France also now 11 games in his rookie season last year, but with a much better ERA than Brown. The Royals handled him well, scoring eight runs in 9 1⁄3 innings over his final two starts in September last year. His 92 mph fastball and cutter have been very hittable, but he has had better success with his change and curve. This could be his last start in the rotation with Justin Verlander expected to return next week.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
Astros relievers have struggled so far this year, with an ERA of 5.40, eight-worst in baseball. They signed All-Star closer Josh Hader to a lucrative five-year, $95 million deal, but he already has two losses and one blown save with an ERA of 7.20. All-Star reliever Ryan Pressly has also struggled, giving up five hits and four runs in facing just six batters on Saturday against the Rangers. Tayler Scott was signed as a minor league contract and could be an interesting project. He’s throwing his change up a lot more, and though he has walked a lot of hitters, he has ten strikeouts in just six innings, and has given up just three hits.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
The Astros have been the dominant team in the American League for awhile now, but there are cracks in their edifice. The Royals dodge a few bullets missing Blanco, Valdez, and Verlander, but the Astros have built their franchise on a deep pitching staff. It’s one thing to sweep the lowly White Sox, the Astros will prove an interesting test for the plucky Royals.