The Royals are definitely going to the playoffs
The only thing truly left to determine is their playoff seeding.
Mitch was trapped in a space station.
Up until this point, being in the space station was pretty cool. They had spent their time doing cool experiments, learning exciting new things, trying out zero-g games with friends, and just checking out the wonder and vastness of space or gazing upon the beautiful planet (and also the earth) out the windows.
But for a week, there had been a problem.
There was a small leak somewhere in the station. It wasn’t a crisis; it was just a small leak. But with every passing day with the source of the leak unidentified, it got harder and harder to breathe. Some of that was probably psychosomatic, but some was real, too. There was probably still plenty of time to find and fix the leak. But with every passing day, it felt more and more certain that no one would be able to find it, that the over-taxed air recyclers would fail, and Mitch would suffocate to death in space with all of his friends.
Then, finally, someone found the leak. A short time later, the leak was fixed and suddenly, finally, Mitch and everyone else could breathe freely and easily for the first time in a week.
The Royals fandom is Mitch. Michael Massey found the leak when he drove in a run during Wednesday night’s game. Tommy Pham fixed it when he smacked a three-run home run to give the Royals their first multi-run lead in over a week. Royals fans breathed easily again once the victory was secured.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the Royals remaining regular season schedule and I expected them to reach 90 wins, but even if they missed out on 90 wins they could easily secure a postseason berth. They are now 14 games into a 20-game stretch that many have called The Gauntlet or The Gauntlet Part Deux where they faced off against only playoff-contending teams. It hasn’t gone as well as anyone hoped, exacerbated by a seven-game losing streak where it quickly began to feel as if the Royals might never win again.
However, over that same stretch, the Red Sox and Twins - the two other teams that were serious contenders for the final Wild Card spots at the time - have gone 3-10 and 5-8 respectively. And neither the Twins nor the Red Sox faced a single first-place team over that stretch while the Royals went 5-9 against exclusively first-place teams!
The Guardians, unfortunately, bounced back from an awful August in a big way to greatly extend their division lead once more. But even with the division (most likely) out of reach, even with an awful seven-game losing streak, the Royals playoff chances seem brighter than ever.
All three of the major playoff odds websites now have the Royals pegged above 80% odds* to make the postseason. Their Magic Number dwindles every day. It is still technically and mathematically possible for them to be eliminated. But, even with the Tigers and Mariners trying to sneak back into the picture, the Royals are just so far ahead that it’s going to be nearly impossible for anyone to catch them.
*For comparison, the Tigers, Mariners, and Red Sox - the teams “chasing” the Royals - each have playoff odds below 10%, now.
Still, maybe you don’t believe me. So let’s go ahead and do that scheduling prediction thing for the Twins, Red Sox, Tigers, and Guardians and see what we come up with. (Note: I did most of these predictions prior to last weekend before abruptly having to change course when Vinnie got hurt. I have left those predictions in to allow you to judge my accuracy thus far.**)
First, a reminder for what I expected the Royals to do:
- Phillies: 1-2 *This is what happened
- @ Guardians: 2-2 *The Royals won an extra game
- @ Astros: 1-3 *The Royals lost an extra game
- Guardians: 2-1 *The Royals lost another extra game
- Twins: 1-2
- @ Yankees: 1-2
- @ Pirates: 2-1
- Tigers: 3-0
- Giants: 2-1
- @ Nationals: 2-1
- @ Atlanta: 2-1
Originally, this would have put the Royals at 90 wins. The Royals took an extra game from the Guardians on the road, but then got swept by the Astros - something I admitted was plausible - before they also lost an extra game to the Guardians at home. That means they’re now aiming for 89 wins. So let's look at the remaining Red Sox schedule.
- @ Tigers 1-2 *This is what happened
- @ Mets 1-2 *They lost an extra game
- White Sox 3-0
- Orioles 1-2
- @ Yankees 1-3
- @ Rays 1-2
- Twins 1-2
- @ Blue Jays 2-1
- Rays 2-1
If they had followed that path, they would have gone 13-15 over their remaining 28 games. That would have given them a final record of 82-80. They would have missed the playoffs entirely. I originally worried I might be a bit pessimistic about their chances, but they’re already playing behind even that pace after being swept by the Mets.
At this point, if the Royals just played .500 the rest of the way the Red Sox would have to go 16-6. That’s not happening. If the Royals went 7-14 - a truly terrible .333 winning percentage - the Red Sox would still have to go 13-9. That is also not happening.
I have repeatedly insisted on the podcast, in the rumblings, and on Twitter that the Tigers aren’t a real threat. But, fine, I’ll do this for the Tigers, too.*
*This set of predictions was made this week because I originally refused to even consider them competitors when I tried to write this the first time
- @ Athletics 2-1
- Rockies 2-1
- Orioles 1-2
- @ Royals 1-2
- @ Orioles 0-3
- Rays 2-1
- White Sox 3-0
If the Tigers do this they’d finish 82-80, right there with the Red Sox and nowhere near the Royals. Only, the Tigers have things even worse than the Red Sox because while the Red Sox hold the tiebreaker over the Royals and can pass them simply by winning as many games as the Royals, the Tigers would have to win a game more than the Royals. And, in many ways, this is a very optimistic reading of the Tigers’ chances. Sweeping the White Sox isn’t a guarantee. Nor is winning the series against the Rays. Maybe it would be hard for the Orioles to sweep them, but they could also slip up and lose an extra game to the Athletics or Rockies. They almost got swept in San Diego!
Next, let’s take a look at the Twins
- Blue Jays 2-1 *This is what happened
- @ Rays 2-2 *This is what happened
- @ Royals 2-1
- Angels 2-1
- Reds 2-1
- @ Guardians 1-3
- @ Red Sox 2-1
- Marlins 2-1
- Orioles 1-2
The Twins would go 16-13 over their remaining schedule. That would put them at 88-74. That’s if they take two out of three from the Royals and don’t slump again before the finish - they lost five out of six to the also-ran Cardinals and barely-in-it Atlanta before this.
Finally, just for fun, let’s talk about the Guardians. When I initially did all this predicting, the Guardians were slumping and the division seemed a lot more attainable.
- Pirates 2-1 *This is what happened
- @ Royals 1-2 *They won an extra game.
- @ Dodgers 0-3
- @ White Sox 2-1
- Rays 2-1
- Twins 3-1
- @ Cardinals 1-2
- Reds 1-1
- Astros 1-2
If they had followed that path, they would have gone 13-14 over their final 27. That would have given them a final record of 89-73. So now they’re looking at 90. If they deviate, I’d probably expect them to be better than this. They might only win one against the White Sox as they’ve gone 5-5 against them. But they might split with the Twins, despite the Twins having their number prior to this. Or maybe the Dodgers won’t be able to sweep them.
The division would appear to be the Guardians’ to lose in the same way that the third Wild Card spot would appear to be the Royals’. Still, it does seem more reasonable to dream on a division win than missing out on the playoffs despite a similar number of games separating the teams. Why? Because the Guardians, like the Red Sox and Twins, haven’t been especially good since the break while the Royals, despite their seven-game losing streak, have. Even so, that difference is only enough to give the Royals an outside chance at the division.
If all of this went down the way I had predicted from here on, the Royals would lose the division by only a game and finish in the second wild card barely ahead of the Twins. If the Guardians lose an extra game or the Royals win an extra game, however, the Royals would win the division because they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Guardians.
Regardless, what must be abundantly clear now is what the title of this article says:
The Royals are definitely going to the playoffs.
The Red Sox simply don’t have the horses to get there. The Tigers are, at least in some ways, in an even worse position. The Mariners are in a similar position to the Tigers but they don’t even have three games against the White Sox to count on.
That means the Royals’ playoff battle is in the Central and it isn’t for who gets to go to the playoffs; as impossible as it seemed in the preseason, the incredibly strong AL Central will send three teams this year: the Guardians, Twins, and Royals. The battle will be only for who gets the division crown and which two teams take the final two Wild Card spots.
It’s an important battle, to be sure. Winning the division guarantees at least a chance to host the Wild Card round. Trying to take two out of three in Houston, Baltimore, or New York would not be a series anyone could feel good about. Doing it in Cleveland or Minnesota wouldn’t exactly be fun, either.
But it is, notably, not a battle to get into the playoffs. That’s a foregone conclusion. Anyone out there who is still trying to insist the Royals might miss the postseason should be laughed at. Seriously, just laugh at them. Don’t argue with them, they can’t see the reality in front of their face. (This is a real do as I say, not as I do statement...) And certainly don’t let them get your blood pressure up. Why be upset? Your favorite team is going to the postseason for the first time in nine years! Enjoy this last month of baseball as best you can, don’t let the losses bring you down too far, and pray that Salvador Perez has kept enough of that Royals Devil Magic to cause havoc in the playoffs once more.
**I was 31-5 in my predictions to this point. So I’m doing pretty good.