Pirates series preview: Arrrrgh you ready for some baseball?
The Royals look to plunder Pittsburgh.
The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 2018, but their rebuild seems have brought them to the cusp of being a .500 team, with hopes they can get over the hump next year. They have the third-youngest pitching staff in baseball with two of the more electric young arms in baseball. The team flirted with .500 and actually had a winning record at the trade deadline - where they were buyers with an eye for the long-term. But an 8-19 August sunk any hopes of making the post-season.
Kansas City Royals (80-67) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-76) at PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Royals: 4.71 runs scored/game (10th in MLB), 4.07 runs allowed/game (8th)
Pirates: 4.24 runs scored/game (19th), 4.55 runs allowed/game (21st)
The Bucs have played better in September and are currently enjoying a four-game win streak that includes a sweep of the Marlins, a team they’re 7-0 against this year. The Pirates are just 39-53 against teams with a .500 record or better this year.
Only four teams have hit fewer home runs than the Pirates and they have the fifth-lowest on-base percentage in baseball. The Pirates average 4.39 runs-per-game at home compared to 4.08 on the road, and 54 percent of their home runs have come at PNC Park.
Oneil Cruz is a poor man’s Elly de la Cruz, but the Pirates have moved him to centerfield due to erratic defense. At the plate he has good power and speed, but has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 30.6. Veteran Andrew McCutchen is hitting .339/.414/.746 with 7 home runs in 17 games since the beginning of August, despite missing some time with a knee injury. Bryan De La Cruz is hitting just .200/.281/.267 in 33 games since the Pirates acquired him from the Marlins at the trade deadline. Joey Bart acquired after being designated for assignment by the Giants, is tied for 14th among all catchers in home runs with 13. Former Royals outfielder Michael A. Taylor is hitting just .137/.203/.214 at home this year.
The Pirates have the highest success rate on stolen bases in baseball at 85 percent. Taylor and newly acquired infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa are terrific defenders, but the rest of the team is poor defensively.
Luis L. Ortiz (not to be confused with Luis F. Ortiz of the Phillies) began the year in the bullpen, but has flourished since moving to the rotation in July, with a 3.10 ERA in 12 starts. Lefties have hit 10 of the 13 home runs he has allowed, although righties have a higher batting average against him. He throws his slider the most, getting whiffs 30.1 percent of the time, while also mixing in a 96 mph fastball, sinker, and cutter.
Mitch Keller was an All-Star last year for the Pirates, winning 13 games as a 2.9 rWAR pitcher. He got off to a good start this year, but has struggled in his last six starts with a 6.61 ERA and opponents hitting .319/.354/.556. Keller as been much better at home with a 2.82 ERA in Pittsburgh, compared to 4.82 on the road. He has a deep arsenal with good command, throwing a 94 mph fastball, sinker, sweeper, cutter, curve, and slider.
The Royals will miss pitching phenom Paul Skenes, but Jared Jones has been nearly as prolific missing bats with a strikeout rate of 26 percent. He struck out nine with no walks in his seven innings in his last start against the Nationals, just his third game since returning from the Injured List with a lat injury. Jones 97.3 mph fastball is one of the fastest in baseball and opponents are hitting just .187 with a 38.5 percent whiff rate against his slider.
The Pirates bullpen has the third most blown saves in baseball and the fourth-worst ERA at 4.65. Former All-Star David Bednar has completely collapsed in the second half with a 7.45 ERA since the All-Star break, and six blown saves overall, leading manager Derek Shelton to yank him from the closer’s role. Former Royals reliever Aroldis Chapman will likely get most save opportunities, but it could be a roller coaster as he has the highest walk rate among relievers, but the sixth-highest strikeout rate. Dennis Santana hasn’t allowed a run in his last 15 outings, covering 18 innings. Jalen Beeks has a 2.30 ERA in 20 games since the Pirates got him from the Rockies and lefties are hitting .182/.250/.261 against him. Kansas City native Joey Wentz was acquired by the Pirates earlier this month.
The Royals don’t visit beautiful PNC Park much, but they have dropped 11 of their last 14 games there, and haven’t won a series there since 2000. The Pirates swept them at Kauffman last year, but this is a different Royals club. The Pirates have some good pitching and can be a bit feisty, but the Royals should be expected to win this series on the road.