Historian Allan Lichtman boasts having accurately predicted the outcomes of all but one US presidential election since 1984
Historian Allan Lichtman, widely acclaimed as the ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential elections, has predicted that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will beat her Republican rival Donald Trump in November. The history professor at American University says his method shuns polls altogether, and is instead based on a set of 13 true-or-false questions that supposedly hold the “keys” to the White House.
Originally, the anticipated GOP candidate was supposed to run against incumbent president Joe Biden. However, following the veteran politician’s dismal showing during a televised debate in late June, the Democrats replaced him with Vice President Harris as their nominee.
Speaking to The New York Times on Thursday, Lichtman said: “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States – at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race.” He explained that of the 13 so-called ‘keys,’ eight favored the Democratic nominee. He claimed that Harris has gained from the absence of a strong third-party candidate after Robert F Kennedy Jr. pulled out of the race last month. He also cited positive short- and long-term economic indicators, supposed legislative achievements enacted by the Biden administration, and a perceived absence of social unrest or scandal attached to the White House, as stacking the odds in the Democratic candidate’s favor.
In addition, Lichtman says, the fact that Harris did not have to undergo a party nomination process, with all the other candidates rallying behind her, is also a plus for the vice president.
Speaking to Fox News Digital on Saturday, the renowned election forecaster stood by his prediction, saying that, following the “unprecedented” withdrawal of Biden from the race, the “Democrats finally got smart and united behind Harris.”
Lichtman says he has correctly predicted the outcomes of nine out of ten presidential elections since 1984. The only time he failed was during the contested faceoff between George W Bush and Al Gore back in 2000, the historian insists. That election was decided after the US supreme court ruled in Bush’s favor following weeks of legal wrangling over disputed ballots.
Meanwhile, another influential American election analyst, Nate Silver, claimed on Wednesday that Trump’s chances of beating Harris were higher than at any point since the vice president entered the race in July.
His prediction stood in stark contrast with several polls over the past few weeks that have consistently shown Harris slightly ahead of Trump.
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