Has Justin Fields turned a corner?

Development is not linear, starring Justin Fields

Has Justin Fields turned a corner?

Three weeks ago, that statement seemed difficult to believe. It might even seem difficult to comprehend now. Three weeks ago the Chicago Bears were 2-1, but Fields was a huge question mark. Now? Now the Bears are 2-3, thanks to two-straight losses.

But might their second-year passer have turned things around since that win over the Houston Texans?

Consider this. After the week three games, we can look at where Fields stood in terms of quarterback efficiency, measured in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) along with his Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), courtesy of RBSDM.com:

The bottom-left quadrant is not where you want to be as a quarterback. Not only is Fields in that quadrant — representing the fact that he was below league average in both metrics, but he was pinned to the bottom-left corner, in a cluster with Trey Lance and Baker Mayfield.

Not great.

Diving into the numbers further, Fields ranked 32nd in EPA/Play among qualified quarterbacks over that stretch with an EPA/Play of -0.157. Only Matt Ryan was lower over the first three weeks of the season. During the first three weeks of the season, Fields’ CPOE was -13.5, ahead of only Mayfield and Lance.

According to Pro Football Focus charting data, Fields posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 58.1% during the first three weeks.

Dead last among qualified passers.

That led to pieces like this one, trying to figure out what was going on with Fields. The conclusion, at least from one analyst? It was a matter of trust.

Now we can look at how he has performed in the two weeks since then:

Improvement!

Over the past two weeks, Fields has pulled himself out of the bottom-left quadrant, and into the upper-right, illustrating an EPA/Play that has been above league average over those two games. At least over Weeks 4 and 5, Fields finds himself in a cluster with Zach Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow and Jacoby Brissett.

During that stretch, Fields posted a CPOE of -2.6, which is still a negative number, but an improvement over the first few weeks. That puts him 25th among qualified passers over the past two weeks. He also ranked ninth in the league over the past two weeks with an EPA/Play of 0.213.

Over at PFF, Field’s ACP of 74.4% over Weeks 4 and 5 ranked him 16th among qualified passers during this past two-week stretch.

Again, improvement!

Is this just a two-week mirage, or has Fields actually turned a corner? To try and answer that we turn to the film. In Chicago’s Week 4 loss to the New York Giants, Fields connected on 11 of 22 passes for 174 yards, and added another 52 yards on 7 rushing attempts. Not exactly prodigious production, but studying him from that game shows signs of something that was missing the first three weeks.

Trust. Trust in himself, and trust in those around him.

On this play from the first quarter, the Bears run an under-center, play-action concept. Watch as Fields executes the run fake and hits the route on the left side of the field in rhythm:

These kinds of play-action designs, where the quarterback has to turn their back to the defense, stress the QB’s “decision-making window.” Instead of having his eyes on the secondary the entire time, Fields takes his eyes off the defense, which requires him to snap his eyes back, pick up any coverage rotation, and make the right decision.

Here, the Giants slide into their single-high coverage look before the snap, so Fields has less to diagnose once he gets his eyes back upfield. But the timing is critical. With the Giants in Cover 3, the cornerback is reading Fields’ eyes and when he sees the quarterback start to throw, he drives on the route. If there is any hesitation from Fields, this play results in an incompletion, or worse.

Instead it is a Bears’ first down.

Later in the first quarter, Chicago called for a Burner concept, a variation on the popular post/over combination that every team has in the playbook. Instead of the post route, however, this design has that receiver stay vertical. In this case, it is Darnell Mooney who runs the vertical route along the left side of the field. Here, Fields comes out of another play-action fake with his back to the defense, and trusts Mooney to win downfield:

If you look at this play when Fields decides to target Mooney, the receiver has yet to get even with the cornerback, let alone get a step on the defender. Still, the quarterback trusts that Mooney is going to separate downfield, and gives him a chance to make a play.

56 yards later, the Bears are in Giants’ territory.

The play from Week 4 that gives me perhaps the most hope that Fields has turned the corner came from the second half. With the Bears facing a 3rd and 9, they dial up a double-dig concept, with a pair of dig routes coming from the left side of the field. With the Giants in Cover 3, Fields connects with Mooney on his dig route in the secondary throwing window to move the chains.

The best part of this play? Fields’ trust in the pocket:

Fields faces a bit of pressure off the right edge, as rookie pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux pushes into the pocket against a double-team. This is the kind of play where, in weeks past, Fields might tuck the ball and run, or at least pull the ball down and try and create space with his legs. Remember a similar play from a few weeks ago, where he pulled the ball down in a moment like this and missed a chance to connect on a similar route?

Instead of pulling the ball down, Fields hangs in the pocket, trusting in the protection in front of him. The result? A great decision, a good throw, and a first down for the Bears.

Watching this play, I had a flashback to another second-year quarterback who was once facing questions about his play, and about how he managed the pocket.

Jalen Hurts.

Last season, Hurts was facing similar questions, and then against the Denver Broncos in Week 10, you could almost see the transformation on this third-down connection with Dallas Goedert:

Hurts faces pressure in his face, and slides to escape the interior rusher. Instead of tucking and running as he had been in previous games, Hurts resets his feet and hits Goedert on his dig route, moving the chains.

Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, Fields posted his most efficient day of the season, completing 15 of 21 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown. He added another 47 rushing yards, which does not include a long touchdown run called back due to a penalty.

Beyond the production, we saw more examples of Fields trusting in himself, and in those around him. On this highlight-reel connection with Mooney, Fields again trusts his receiver to win downfield, and Mooney does with perhaps the Catch of the Year:

Similar to the earlier example where Fields targeted Mooney on a vertical route, Fields makes an aggressive decision, but an appropriate one. Mooney is even with the cornerback when Fields lets this throw go, but as the expression holds: “If he’s even, he’s leaving.” Fields gives Mooney a chance, the receiver rewards the decision, and the Bears are in the red zone.

Later in the game, we see an example of Fields trusting both his protection, and his eyes:

Starting in the shotgun, Fields faces a bit of pressure through the interior. Again, he stands tall, trusting his teammates up front. That gives him time to work through his options, and he gets his eyes from Mooney’s route — which is splitting the two-deep safeties in the middle of the field — to the deep out route from Equanimeous St. Brown on the right side of the field. This is a long throw, coming from the left hashmark to the right sideline, but Fields delivers with ideal timing, rhythm and placement.

And trust.

Now, is this enough for Bears fans to believe? Has Fields truly turned a corner? Perhaps, and the numbers and film do offer evidence to support such a proposition. But perhaps he has not, and after all Chicago lost both games.

Ultimately, however, it is important to remember that development is not linear. While we all have this image of a perfectly-straight trendline of growth when it comes to quarterbacks, or even life, it rarely works out that way. There are peaks and valleys along the way. What truly matters for quarterbacks, and in life, is if that trendline generally improves over time, even with those dips along the way.

Whether this is the start of that growth for Fields, or a mirage, remains to be seen. But in contrast to what we were seeing from him three weeks ago, the quarterback we have seen over the past two weeks is a better version, giving Bears fans reason to hope again.