NFL playoff, seeding, and elimination scenarios for Week 17
Here is what is at stake in Week 17 of the NFL season
That’s right. Tom Brady is on the cusp of yet another division title.
Thanks to their comeback win over the Arizona Cardinals on Christmas night, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the brink of “winning” the NFC South. We put the winning in quotes there because, well, just look at the standing in that division.
However, the Buccaneers are not the only team who can punch their postseason tickets in the penultimate week of the NFL season. A few others can join them.
To that end, here are the playoff, seeding, and elimination scenarios for Week 17 of the NFL season.
Who has clinched, and what
NFC
We can start with the NFC, where four teams have now booked a ticket for the postseason. However, that is unchanged from a week ago. The New York Giants had a chance to clinch a spot, but their loss to the Minnesota Vikings prevented them from getting in last weekend.
With their win over the Chicago Bears back in Week 15, the Philadelphia Eagles clinched at least a playoff berth. However, thanks to Philadelphia’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Eagles have yet to clinch the NFC East, or the top seed in the conference.
The Dallas Cowboys’ win over the Eagles on Christmas Eve kept their slim chances of winning the NFC East alive, but they were already in the playoffs thanks to results from Week 15.
With their epic comeback against the Indianapolis Colts, the Minnesota Vikings clinched the NFC North. It will take another miracle for the Vikings to secure the top seed in the conference, but it is still possible.
The San Francisco 49ers locked up the NFC West with their Thursday night win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15. Similar to Minnesota, the 49ers have an outside shot at the top seed in the NFC, but it would take a lot of things breaking their way.
AFC
On the AFC side of things, three teams joined the playoffs this weekend, starting on Thursday night.
The Kansas City Chiefs locked up their seventh-straight AFC West title with their Week 15 victory over the Houston Texans. Now they have their eyes on the top seed in the conference, as do the...
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills wrapped up a playoff spot with a Week 15 win over the Miami Dolphins. They clinched the division this past weekend thanks to their win over the Chicago Bears. Now the Bills can turn their attention to securing homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. As we will see in a moment, Buffalo does have the inside track on securing homefield. Furthermore, according to playoff chances from 538.com, while the Chiefs have a 40% chance at earning homefield, the Bills’ chances are slightly better at 47%.
The Cincinnati Bengals clinched a playoff berth the best way possible: While watching on TV. When the New York Jets lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night, it locked up a spot in the playoffs for the Bengals. Now they can turn their attention to the AFC North division title, and they have a chance at the top seed, but would need a lot of help.
Like their division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens clinched a playoff spot this weekend. However, it took more than Baltimore’s win over the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday to get into the dance. But losses from the Jets and the New England Patriots did the trick.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers needed a win, and some help, to clinch this week.
They got everything they needed.
The Chargers needed losses from the Las Vegas Raiders, the New England Patriots, and the New York Jets to have a chance at clinching a playoff spot this week. They got all three, starting with the Jets’ loss on Thursday night.
The final piece was a win over the Indianapolis Colts, which the Chargers delivered on Monday night.
Playoff scenarios
NFC
We can start in the NFC, where there are currently three playoff spots remaining. Two teams can potentially clinch this weekend.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and someone has to win the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can do that this weekend with a win over the Carolina Panthers. A loss to Carolina would not eliminate the Buccaneers, but it would give the Panthers control of their own destiny. If the Panthers win this weekend, a Carolina win in Week 18 would give them the NFC South.
There is actually a scenario where the Buccaneers could still get into the playoffs without winning the division, but we can save that for next week, if necessary.
The Fightin’ Brian Dabolls can still clinch a playoff spot this weekend despite their loss to the Vikings. Here is how.
The easiest way? Beat the Indianapolis Colts. A victory this weekend gets the New York Giants into the playoffs.
However, there are a few scenarios where the Giants can back into the dance, even if they lose to Indianapolis. First, losses by the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Commanders get the Giants into the playoffs. Second, losses by Seattle and the Detroit Lions, coupled with either a loss or a tie from the Green Bay Packers, and the Giants are in. Finally, losses from Washington, Detroit and Green Bay get the Giants in, even with a loss to the Colts.
There are also a number of scenarios where the Giants can clinch a playoff spot if they tie the Colts. For example, a tie with Indianapolis, a tie from the Seahawks and a loss from the Commanders, gets the Giants into the playoffs. For more on these potential scenarios involving a tie, they are identified here.
Washington Commanders
Yes, even with last week’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Washington Commanders can still clinch a playoff spot this weekend. First, they would need to beat the Cleveland Browns. Then, they would need Seattle, Green Bay, and Detroit to all lose.
AFC
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins can clinch a playoff spot this weekend with a win over the Patriots, and a New York Jets loss to the Seahawks. However, they might be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in that game, as he was placed in the NFL’s concussion protocol on Monday.
Seeding or division title scenarios
There are a few seeding scenarios to watch this week, as well as some teams that can lock up their division.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles
While the Eagles have already clinched a playoff spot, they can clinch the NFC East division title with either win or a Dallas loss.
In addition, the Eagles clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with either a win over the Saints, or losses from all three teams chasing them: Dallas, San Francisco, and Minnesota.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As noted above, the Buccaneers clinch the NFC South with a win over the Panthers.
AFC
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have already clinched both a playoff spot and the AFC East, but thanks to their win earlier in the season over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills could secure homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals, and a loss by the Kansas City Chiefs to the Denver Broncos.
Cincinnati Bengals
Speaking of the Bengals, if they were to beat the Bills, and the Ravens were to lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers, then Cincinnati would win the AFC North for the second-straight year.
Elimination scenarios
And now, a bit of bad news.
Week 16 saw some teams find coal in their stockings Christmas morning, as a few different teams joined the ranks of the eliminated.
NFC
We can start in the NFC. Four teams are now eliminated: The Los Angeles Rams, the Chicago Bears, the Arizona Cardinals, and the Atlanta Falcons, thanks to their loss to the Ravens.
Here is who can join them this weekend.
The New Orleans Saints are still alive, but they would need some help to get into the playoffs. Their easiest pathway to the postseason is by winning the division. However, they would be eliminated from the NFC South title race with a Buccaneers win, or a Saints loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Saints are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot without winning the division, but a loss would eliminate them from playoff contention along either pathway.
Detroit Lions
Despite their late season charge, the Detroit Lions can be eliminated this weekend. A loss to the Chicago Bears, coupled a win from the Commanders, and the Lions are eliminated. But if the Lions win — or Washington loses — Detroit is still alive in Week 18.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers face a similar scenario as their division rivals. While the Packers are still alive, they need wins, and some help, to stay in contention. However, a loss to the Vikings, coupled with a Lions win over Chicago, would knock Green Bay out of the playoffs. A loss to the Vikings, along with a Commanders win over Cleveland, knocks the Packers out.
Seattle Seahawks
Then there are the Seattle Seahawks, who cannot be eliminated simply with a loss to the New York Jets, but would need help to stay alive in such a scenario. However, a loss to the Jets coupled with a Commanders win would eliminate Seattle.
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Buccaneers.
Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders can clinch a playoff spot this weekend, as outline above. But they could also be eliminated. If Washington loses to the Browns, and both the Packers and the Lions win, the Commanders are eliminated.
AFC
On the AFC side of things, the Denver Broncos and the Houston Texans were joined this weekend by the Cleveland Browns and the Indianapolis Colts in the group of eliminated teams.
Here are the teams that can join them this weekend.
New York Jets
Thanks to the Chargers’ win on Monday night, the Jets can be eliminated this weekend with a loss to the Seahawks.
New England Patriots
Thanks to the Chargers’ win on Monday night, the Patriots can be eliminated this weekend with a loss to the Miami Dolphins.
Yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers are still technically alive for another week. Furthermore, a loss to the Ravens on Sunday night does not automatically eliminate the Steelers.
However, a loss to the Ravens, along by wins from either the Jets or the Patriots, would eliminate the Steelers.
Las Vegas Raiders
Like the Steelers, the Raiders are still alive, but the odds are long. A loss to the 49ers this weekend eliminates the Raiders. However, a win from the Raiders does keep them alive for one last week.