Why the next two races are critical for Sergio Pérez’s Red Bull future, and present

With the grid closing up to Red Bull, Sergio Pérez is facing renewed pressure to keep his seat

Rumors about Sergio Pérez’s status with Red Bull refuse to go away.

The 2024 Formula 1 season began with the driver on a contract that expired at the end of the campaign, and rampant speculation that he could find himself on the outside looking in before 2025. With four drivers for three spots — counting Pérez, Liam Lawson, Yuki Tsunoda, and Daniel Ricciardo as those four drivers — Red Bull and their sister team Visa Cash App RB F1 Team faced some looming decisions.

Ahead of the Canadian Grand Prix, it seemed some decisions were made. Red Bull announced a new contract with Pérez that could keep him in his current seat through the 2026 season, and then word came that VCARB was retaining Tsunoda, exercising an option on the driver for the 2025 campaign.

So, now three of the seats were set for 2025 — given that Max Verstappen’s current seat at Red Bull is his as long as he wants it — with just Ricciardo and Lawson as potential options for the final slot.

Or so we thought.

Because much has changed since then, Pérez is in the midst of a difficult run of form that Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner has described as “unsustainable,” as the driver has secured just 11 points since that announcement. He finished outside the points in Canada and last weekend in the British Grand Prix and managed just an eighth-place finish in the Spanish Grand Prix. His best result over the past several race weekends came at Red Bull Ring when Pérez finished seventh.

Right behind Haas driver Nico Hülkenberg, whose 16 points since Montreal have seen the Haas driver outscore Pérez (and Charles Leclerc for that matter, but that is a discussion for another time).

As a result, Pérez is now under renewed pressure, thanks not just to his recent poor form but also because 2024 is not 2023 in Formula 1.

Consider this. The British Grand Prix was the 12th race weekend of the 2024 F1 campaign, meaning we have reached the halfway point. Here is how the top four teams sit in the Constructors’ Championship standings.

Standings at the halfway point (12 races) this year:

Red Bull: 373
Ferrari: 302
McLaren: 295
Mercedes: 221
Aston Martin: 68

How were the top-five teams aligned at the midway point last year?

Standings at the halfway point (11 races) last year:

Red Bull: 452
Mercedes: 223
Aston Martin: 184
Ferrari: 167
McLaren: 87

Things are much different now. Red Bull needs both Verstappen and Pérez to perform at a high level to fend off their rivals.

And at the moment, they are not getting that from Pérez.

“[Pérez] knows it’s unsustainable to not be scoring points – we have to be scoring points in that car, and he knows that,” said Horner after the British Grand Prix. “He knows his role and his target, so nobody is more eager than Checo to find his form again.

“It’s something we’re acutely aware of, that to win the Constructors’ Championship you need both cars scoring.”

If that was not enough pressure on Pérez, the ever-quotable Dr. Helmut Marko has added to the stress the driver must be feeling.

Speaking with 247 Grand Prix this week the Red Bull Senior Advisor discussed “exit clauses” in all Red Bull contracts, and how a decision on Pérez will come during the summer break, following the next two races.

“All Formula 1 contracts have exit clauses, most of them related to performance or let’s say for the top drivers,” said Marko. “As I mentioned before, we will have an evaluation during the summer break and then we will make a decision”

As far as who might replace him Marko deflected the discussion away from Lawson — who is driving the RB20 today at Silverstone in a filming session — and towards Tsunoda.

“First we have to see,” added Marko. “Lawson is testing at Silverstone on Thursday. And yeah, so two more races and there will be more outings with Lawson. There’s also Yuki Tsunoda who is doing very well.”

Those two races? The Hungarian Grand Prix the next weekend, and the Belgian Grand Prix the following weekend. Those were both strong weekends for Pérez a season ago. He only qualified ninth in Hungary but worked his way through the field to finish third. Then at Spa the following race weekend he qualified third for the Grand Prix and picked up a spot on the track to finish second.

Those results added 33 points to Pérez’s account, helping to ease concerns after he endured a similar down stretch of races.

A pair of drives like those from a year ago these next two race weekends will go a long way towards easing the current concerns about Pérez at Red Bull. Results such as those will also aid Red Bull as they try to fend off teams like Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes who have been nipping at their heels these past few weeks.

However, if Pérez’s struggles continue, the door does seem open to him being replaced following the summer break.

As for who would replace him — whether Lawson, Ricciardo, or Tsunoda — that remains to be seen. But Marko bringing up Tsunoda when asked about Lawson seems, at least to this writer, to be noteworthy.