UFC 304 Paths to Victory: How does Leon Edwards beat Belal Muhammad and retain his welterweight title?

Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad are set to run things back.

This Saturday, Edwards and Muhammad face off for the welterweight title in the main event of UFC 304, a rematch of their 2021 fight that ended in a no-contest after an inadvertent eye poke rendered Muhammad unable to continue. How much can we learn from their first fight, how much has each man changed since then, and who will leave Manchester, England with welterweight gold?

Let’s take a look.

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Paths to Victory for Leon Edwards at UFC 304

Edwards has become one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the sport because of his exceptional well-roundedness. Primarily a kickboxer, Edwards is an elite anti-wrestler, but he’s also willing to employ clinch tactics and wrestling of his own if the occasion calls for it, meaning “Rocky” can compete in all phases and take fights to the one that favors his opponent the least. The basis off all of this is footwork. Edwards is very good at controlling the range and angling out of pressure, or collapsing it when necessary. The straw that stirs the drink for Edwards is that he’s the one dictating where the action is taking place. And in the first fight with Muhammad, that gave Edwards a huge advantage.

Muhammad is a pressure fighter, and Edwards came out very aggressively, putting Muhammad on his heels where he’s least comfortable. From there, Edwards continually snapped in kicks to the body to set that range and stymie Muhammad. When Muhammad did try to get things going, Edwards would simply back out or switch stances, again disrupting Muhammad’s offense, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do the same on Saturday.

The other big weapon for Edwards in their first fight, and one that should carry through to Saturday, is the jab + rear-hand straight. Edwards does not have a great jab, but it’s a good enough setup punch and he used it to sneak in long rear-straights from either stance that found the mark consistently. Then, when Muhammad began to parry the straight punches, Edwards snuck a head kick over the guard that hurt Muhammad. Again, all of that should be available to Edwards on Saturday.

As far as something new, we saw some of it in the first encounter but Edwards looks to be the superior clinch fighter of the two. Edwards has good positioning in tie-ups and more importantly finds tricky ways to get angles and land good knees. One of the primary ways Edwards can lose this fight is to simply get out-worked by Muhammad, so finding refuge in the clinches should “Remember the Name” start building momentum is a good safety valve.

Ultimately for Edwards, the plan for Muhammad is simply to be a more aggressive version of himself. Taking the wind out of Muhammad’s sails early, and slowing the pace down, favors him substantially as he’s the superior technician of the two, and it’s unclear if Muhammad has a deep enough bag of tricks to find something else.

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Paths to victory for Belal Muhammad at UFC 304

Muhammad is currently on a 10-fight unbeaten streak backed primarily by his blend of pressure, wrestle-boxing, and cardio. It’s a potent combination but one that won’t be enough to overcome Edwards without some changes.

As discussed above, Muhammad really struggled with Edwards’s range and aggression in the first matchup, and those are problems that persist for Muhammad across all opponents. Muhammad is a snowball rolling down hill but he does need to get rolling first, and if you never let him out of first gear, his offense is lackluster. Muhammad cannot let Edwards dictate the pace and range of the fight or he’s lost before the bout is even begun.

So how does he do that? Well, the first part sounds simple but can be rather hard: he has to accept damage. In the first fight, Muhammad got stuck at range in part because he simply didn’t like getting hit when he came in. Well, tough cookies. Getting hit is no one’s idea of a good time (OK, maybe it is for Justin Gaethje), but it’s the price of admission to this fight as Edwards is bigger, faster, and has good footwork. And while it may suck to walk headlong into offense, the truth is that sitting at range is actually worse, because like Muhammad, Edwards doesn’t want to be pressured. Edwards wants to stand in space and have a slow-paced kickboxing match. Muhammad cannot acquiesce to that and hope to win.

Once Muhammad accepts that he’s going to have to walk through fire, the biggest priority is getting Edwards to the fence. Edwards is a very good anti-wrestler but if you put him near the fence, it restricts his ability to create space, and smothering Edwards is the key for Muhammad to find consistent success. To do this Muhammad is going to need to double and triple-up his jab. The jab was Muhammad’s only real weapon of success in the first match and it’s crucial in this one.

The last piece of the puzzle for Muhammad is the wrestling. Edwards is a great defensive wrestler and good at standing up, but when we have seen people stymie him, it’s been with smothering top control. Kamaru Usman’s greatest success against Edwards came from putting him along the fence and controlling him. Muhammad is not that level of wrestler or of control grappler, but he is exceptionally well-conditioned and that counts for a lot. Wrestle early, wrestle often and make Edwards work from the opening bell, because the same shots that might get stuffed in the first round will start to land as Edwards slows down. The more Muhammad can make Edwards work, the better his chances as the fight drags on.

X-Factors

The time.

This event takes place in Manchester, England and for some reason, the powers that be decided that regardless, it needs to happen on traditional U.S. pay-per-view times. That means that when Edwards and Muhammad actually make the walk, it will be around 5 a.m. local time. That is a huge departure from when most fighters are used to competing and could screw things up for either or both men if they aren’t properly prepared. Both men are professionals and clearly aware of this heading into the bout, but if either of them slacked on this specific preparation, that’s a huge advantage for the other come fight night (morning).

Prediction

As much as I like Muhammad as a fighter, this is a tough matchup for him. Edwards is bigger, younger, faster, and has a wider range of tools than him. Moreover, Muhammad does not have the sort of high-powered offense that would at least give him a gambler’s chance of landing something. It’s simply not who he is, and Edwards knows that.

This fight is extremely likely to look like every Leon Edwards fight, a masterclass of range and subtle movement that is not broadly appealing to the public because there aren’t big, flashy moments. Instead, Edwards will simply outland Muhammad for most of the fight and walk away with another clear but uninspiring decision.

Leon Edwards def. Belal Muhammad via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).