NFC Divisional Round Player Props: Buccaneers vs. Lions
The Detroit Lions will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday in a divisional playoff game. The home team is favored by 6.5 points and the total is at 49.5 on SI Sportsbook -- the second-highest total of the week at 49.5.
That high number has us eyeing some player props that we think will hit the over.
Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102)
Baker Mayfield over 256.5 passing yards (-115)
Mayfield passed for 337 yards and three touchdowns vs. a poor Eagles secondary on Monday, and the Lions allowed even more passing yards than the Eagles during the regular season- to the tune of an average of 268 passing yards per game.
Baker also threw for 2-plus touchdowns and 283-plus yards in three of his final four games of the regular season.
Another interesting fact? With all the talk about how good Jared Goff is at home, people overlook how good Baker Mayfield is on the road. In nine away games this season, Mayfield threw 18 touchdown passes with just three interceptions for a 100.8 passer rating.
Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+110)
Forget last Monday. Evans is going to have a big game this weekend. Mike Evans tied with Tyreek Hill for an important regular-season counting stat: they led all wideouts with 13 receiving touchdowns. Evans scored in eleven of 17 regular-season games. The Lions allowed the third-most touchdowns to wideouts this season (22), and I like Evans to find pay dirt.
Jeffrey Becker/USA TODAY Sports
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 91.5 receiving yards (-110)
St. Brown had the same number of catches as Tyreek Hill in the regular season (119), and logged the third-most receiving yards in the league for an average of 95 yards per game. He will go off on this Bucs defense that allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and the sixth-most catches (13.5 per game) to wideouts during the regular season. We saw DeVonta Smith have a massive game last week, hauling in eight of his twelve targets for 148 yards and a score for the Eagles on Monday vs. Tampa Bay, so we expect success from the Sun King. Amon-Ra caught seven passes for 110 yards last week vs. the Rams when we played the over on his receiving prop, and we’ll bet he cashes for us again this weekend.
Jameson Williams over 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
Sure, Josh Reynolds had the bigger game last weekend, but that was a revenge game narrative for Goff and Reynolds. Though it doesn’t show up in the box score, Williams played 70% of the snaps last weekend. That was his highest snap count of the season, so I’m going back to Williams this week, who has speed that the Bucs won’t be able to keep up with. Williams burned the Bucs for a 45-yard score earlier this year in Week 6.
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