Men’s Bracket Watch: No. 1 Seed Line Changes, Two Big East Teams Join Field

Conference tournaments are officially underway, and the process of all 68 tickets to the NCAA men’s tournament being punched has hit its home stretch. We won’t get our first automatic bid officially locked up until Saturday, but the race is on in several smaller conferences, including the Atlantic Sun, which got its tournament started Monday night.

Here’s a look at our first bracket refresh for the month of March and what to be watching for as bids start getting locked up this week.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

TCU Horned Frogs
Oklahoma Sooners
Michigan State Spartans
Villanova Wildcats

Last Four In:

Virginia CavaliersSeton Hall Pirates
St. John's Red StormJames Madison Dukes

First Four Out:

Providence Friars
New Mexico Lobos
Utah Utes
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Next Four Out:

Colorado Buffaloes
Texas A&M Aggies
Iowa Hawkeyes
Pittsburgh Panthers

Two new Big East teams join our projected field in Villanova and St. John’s. In some ways, these two teams’ fates are aligned: St. John’s benefits substantially from a strong Villanova, since the Red Storm have two wins over the Wildcats this season. Villanova winning at Providence on Saturday moved Kyle Neptune’s team into the field for now, and that plus a road win at the Butler Bulldogs last week boosted St. John’s enough to push it into the First Four.

Another wrinkle this week: James Madison. At 28–3, I believe the Dukes would be in the NCAA tournament if the season ended today, even with the Appalachian State Mountaineers currently holding the Sun Belt’s automatic qualifier spot. The issue: JMU taking an at-large spot requires it to lose once more during this week’s Sun Belt tournament, and that result might knock it right back out. Should that loss come in the championship game to Appalachian State, the Dukes would have the potent case that they’d have lost to just two teams all season (Appalachian State would have bested them three times). We’ll see how receptive the committee would be to that. Either way, JMU can lock in a spot in the dance with three wins in Pensacola, Fla., in the next week.

* Indicates a projected automatic qualifier

Related: Forde Minutes: Six Pressing Questions for the High-Major Stretch Run

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 Grambling Tigers*/Central Connecticut Blue Devils*
No. 8 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 9 Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 13 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 11 Princeton Tigers*
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 14 High Point Panthers*
No. 7 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 10 TCU Horned Frogs
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders*

Dropping Kansas to a No. 3 seed was a difficult decision, even after the Jayhawks took consecutive losses last week. Kansas’s résumé is so strong at the top, with wins over the UConn Huskies, Houston Cougars, Tennessee Volunteers, Baylor Bears and Kentucky, and none of the losses are overly damaging. The total number of losses is becoming a problem, though. At minimum, KU needs to beat the rival Kansas State Wildcats this week to stop the bleeding.

No team is in bigger freefall than Wisconsin, which has now lost seven of nine since Feb. 1 to fall to 18–11 on the season. That begs the question: Could the Badgers lose out and still land in the field? That would leave Wisconsin at 18–14 with a Quad 3 loss at home to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and losers of 10 of 12 heading into Selection Sunday. I still think the overall body of work would be worthy of selection, but the committee could send a message about the Badgers’ recent play by leaving them out. One more win, ideally Thursday against Rutgers, would be enough to remove all doubt.

Related: How Purdue Men’s Basketball Can Vanquish Past March Disappointments

East Region

No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Little Rock Trojans*
No. 8 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 Indiana State Sycamores*
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Charleston Cougars*
No. 7 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 Michigan State Spartans
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington Eagles*

Auburn may be the most difficult team to seed in the field. With the Ole Miss Rebels dropping out of the NET’s top 75, Auburn has just one Quad 1 win as things stand today. The profile most comparable to the Tigers, who predictive metrics love, is 2022 Houston, which landed as a No. 5 seed. I still think Auburn is in decent shape for a protected seed, but the Tigers could use a strong finish to bolster their résumé down the stretch.

The inverse of the Wisconsin problem is South Florida. The Bulls have won a ridiculous 20 of their last 21 games, but overall, the USF résumé is lacking, thanks in no small part to an early-season loss at home against the Maine Black Bears. Would the committee put in a hot South Florida team if it tripped up in the AAC tournament despite poor quality metrics? I doubt it, but it’s at least a conversation now.

South Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky Colonels*
No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 5 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 12 Richmond Spiders*
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 6 Utah State Aggies* vs. No. 11 St. John’s Red Storm/James Madison Dukes
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 7 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 South Dakota State Jackrabbits*

Duke’s seed ceiling is likely a No. 2, but the Blue Devils could make things interesting if they win out. Duke dominated a projected tournament team in Virginia over the weekend and gets a chance at revenge this week against North Carolina on Saturday at Cameron Indoor Stadium. That, plus an ACC tournament title, would have the Blue Devils at least in the conversation for the last No. 1 seed.

Gonzaga is now safely in the field after a pair of impressive road wins last week, with the Bulldogs winning at the San Francisco Dons and Saint Mary’s Gaels. Now that the Bulldogs are comfortably in the field, they have a great chance of wearing home colors in the first round thanks to their elite performance metrics. A WCC tournament win (which would likely include another win over Saint Mary’s) and the Zags might rise as high as a No. 6 seed.

West Region

No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers* vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*/Quinnipiac Bobcats*
No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 12 Appalachian State Mountaineers*
No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers/Seton Hall Pirates
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies*
No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 10 Villanova Wildcats
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats* vs. No. 15 Sam Houston State BearKats*

We have a change on the No. 1 line: Tennessee’s two big wins in the last week vaulted the Volunteers over Arizona for the fourth No. 1 seed. Playing in a stronger conference has without a doubt helped the Vols separate; Arizona hasn’t played a game since December that held as much meaning as Tennessee’s games this week against Auburn and Alabama. A strong finish this week with games at South Carolina and home against Kentucky could help the Vols solidify their spot on the No. 1 line.

Nebraska keeps inching toward its first NCAA tournament appearance of the Fred Hoiberg era, holding serve at home against Rutgers over the weekend to move to 21–9 on the season. At this point, the Huskers are a safe bet to go dancing, though they could eliminate any worry by beating a Michigan Wolverines team that has rolled over lately at the end of this week.