Mailbag: Why the Vikings Won’t Let Go of Justin Jefferson Anytime Soon

Despite signs of trouble coming out of Minnesota, and a pending QB spot, it’s likely Kevin O’Connell & Co. will do what it takes to keep their star receiver.

You guys brought the questions. I’m bringing the answers. Here’s our free-agency-in-progress mailbag …

From Nick (@nvm551): Justin Jefferson trade a possibility?

Nick, I know there have been signs of trouble. That Jefferson didn’t sign a new deal after his third year, when he was first eligible for one, isn’t the best sign. That he got hurt playing a fourth year on his rookie deal doesn’t help, either. And then there’s the reality that Kirk Cousins is now gone, Sam Darnold has arrived, and who will be playing for the Minnesota Vikings in September or October—let alone in 2025 or ’26—is still very up in the air.

That said, I know the Vikings haven’t planned to move Jefferson. It’s hard to see how they could come to a place where it would benefit them to offload a 24-year-old who’s probably among the top 10 or so players in football, regardless of position.

But to have fun with this, let’s say Minnesota is offered two first-round picks for Jefferson. That sounds like it could be good for a Vikings team that’s in the midst of a two-year roster reset, which might be accelerated by the departure of Cousins. That said, it’s likely the team you’re trading with (a contender, or one Jefferson will willingly do an extension with) is picking in the back end of the first round. It’s also logical to think that said team will have a lower pick next year, with Jefferson on the roster. So we’re maybe talking about two picks in the 20s.

That sounds a lot different than just saying two first-rounders, doesn’t it? And sure, there’s the financial benefit that those two players would come at a cheaper price than Jefferson, but it’s also no sure thing that they’ll be, you know, any good. That’s why, in the end, I’d bet on Minnesota jumping through the hoops it needs to in order to get a deal done for the NFL’s 2022 OPOY—and it’s also certainly possible Jefferson has a new quarterback in late April who might change his viewpoint on all of this.

From Ryan (@RTinDenverCO): What is going on with Justin Fields?

From Michael Ames (@Michael_Ames1): What’s going on with Fields?

From Buck Kodiak (@BuckKodiak): Justin Fields?

Guess which question I got the most this week?

The landscape on Justin Fields is simpler than you might think. The supply at the quarterback position this offseason has hurt him in two ways. On the front end, the pending availability of Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield kept offers for Fields from coming in early. On the back end, with the Chicago Bears waiting for the top of the quarterback market to shake out, a bunch of other quarterbacks who wouldn’t require draft-pick compensation (Russell Wilson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett) became available … and then were acquired.

Yes, the league is saying something here—at this point, Fields hasn’t done enough for another team to acquire him and lock him in as starter for the foreseeable future. If teams felt like he had, then he’d have had a market the way Cousins did, and Mayfield presumably would have if he’d gotten to Monday without a contract. That left Fields in the second group and, again, the fact that you’d have to trade for him and that his contract is what it is (one year left, plus a pricey option year) hurt his value.

That doesn’t mean Fields doesn’t have a future or can’t play. It does mean, however, that he may have to be a backup for a year, the way former first-rounders such as Mitch Trubisky have before getting a second shot at being the guy.

From Dimitry (@Dimitry7688): Denver QB. GO lol

Dimitry, at a baseline, and you aren’t going to like this, my sense is Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton feels like Jarrett Stidham can go out and start for him. That doesn’t mean Stidham is going to be the quarterback in 2025, much less five years from now, but I do think it gives Denver some flexibility in how it operates moving forward at the position.

From there, they’re picking 12th in April, which likely puts them out of range to get Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. The Broncos’ evaluation of Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, who has some traits that I think would mesh well with Payton’s offense, would then come into focus. Part of that might be whether they have to trade up to get him, and what that might cost.

So you add all this up, and I don’t think Payton and the Broncos will force anything this year at the position, with a lot of holes on the roster to fill and a rebuild now underway.

From Skol Rant (@SkolRant): What the HELL is happening with guard contracts?

Skol, so you noticed Robert Hunt getting $20 million with the Carolina Panthers, Mike Onwenu getting $19 million with the New England Patriots, and Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson getting $17 million and $16 million, respectively, with the Los Angeles Rams? You probably should’ve seen it coming for two reasons.

First, it’s the way the franchise tag is set up. All offensive linemen are grouped together, so guards and centers must be tagged at the tackle number. Teams will balk at it, and that leads to higher-end guards and centers making it to market more often than similar players at other positions. Second, there just aren’t enough great offensive linemen to go around, and so the free agency supply/demand equation usually works in the big man’s favor.

So the Philadelphia Eagles get aggressive to prevent a difficult situation with Landon Dickerson next year, and Hunt, Onwenu, Jackson and Dotson break the bank. Good for all of them.

From John Richardson (@JohnIsaac55): Are the Raiders working to trade up, and if so, how far?

John, yes, the Las Vegas Raiders have had exploratory talks on moving up into the top three.

Will they do it? I don’t think the first three picks will wind up being traded, and, after you get past that, it depends on the team’s evaluation of McCarthy (and maybe a couple others). And from there, it depends on whether it gets to the point where the former Michigan QB won’t make it to No. 13 (which is certainly possible). We’ve still got a long way to go.

From Ronnie (@Tray4o): Could the Seahawks be in the mix to trade for Justin Fields? Which other teams could be in the mix for Fields right now?

Ronnie, I like the idea of it. Fields would get to learn from Geno Smith and compete for the starting job. I don’t have any evidence that it’s some strong possibility, but I can see where it’d be a worthwhile swing for the Seattle Seahawks to take.

As for other teams, I can’t get the Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs out of my head as potential destinations, mostly because those teams have always seen value in distressed assets at quarterback; if Fields is going to go be a backup somewhere, I think it’d have to be at places like those. Philadelphia, in particular, intrigues me, because it has the scheme infrastructure to get the most of Fields, and Jalen Hurts has been banged up.

From Jared (@jaregss): What are the Jets doing? Why is there eerily a lack of urgency with a 40-year-old Rodgers and a roster with notable holes?

Jared, this question sets up the perfect example of why panicking on the Tuesday of the first week of free agency probably isn’t so logical. In the time since I opened the mailbag, the New York Jets traded for right tackle Morgan Moses, a durable, tough pro who returns to the team he played the 2021 season with as a viable starting option. David Bakhtiari has the obvious connection to Aaron Rodgers, too, so he could be added as well.

After that, I could see the Jets adding another skill position piece, but they’re getting closer to the cap, so my guess is the help they get from there comes in the draft.

From The Sauce Savant (@SauceGenius): Make the Bears do something... anything. $65 million in cap space and I need closure QB-wise. Either way, I just need closure so I can move on.

Sauce, I’ll give you closure: Your team should be pretty good this year; you’re about to have a generational talent at quarterback; and maintaining the flexibility to trade for a veteran that comes available later in the offseason isn’t such a bad thing. And, no, I don’t have the power to make Ryan Poles or Matt Eberflus do anything.

From robert burgess (@PortCityRob): In a year where the Patriots seemed so competitive, to start the year losing close games with poor game planning, does the 3–4 year rebuild just seem like something people say not to get hopes up cause I have a feeling two to three more FA signings and a solid draft can get them there?

Robert, I appreciate your sense of optimism—everyone should be excited about their team this time of year, so I’m telling you not to look forward to the 2024 season.

But in pro football, there are really five premium positions: quarterback, tackle, receiver, pass-rusher and corner. Normally, and there are exceptions, you fix those by throwing money, draft capital, or both, at them. That makes it difficult to fix more than one or two of them in a single offseason. Now, how many of those positions do the Patriots have filled, as we sit here? I’ll give you corner, with Christian Gonzalez. I think pass-rusher is dicey, with Matthew Judon now 31 and coming off a torn pec. And that, really, is it.

That leaves four premium spots to fill, and even with a ton of cap space, plus a high pick in each round, addressing each of those voids in earnest isn’t a single-offseason job.

I’d say sit back, enjoy the run up to the draft and then look for improvement from your new young guys over the course of the season. The hope should be that the Patriots are competitive early and turn the corner late in the year, to build some momentum going into the 2025 offseason. At that point, they’ll be set to add another draft class and may be in a better spot to spend money they carry over from ’24.

Obviously, this is a new position for Patriots fans to be in. Wins will have to come in a different way. I’d get used to it. The build is gonna take a bit.

From JLK7299 (@JLK7299): Would the presence of Sam Howell make the Commanders wary of drafting his former backup with the second pick?

JLK, actually, no. My understanding is those two get along great. In fact, I heard the former Tar Heel teammates played a round of golf recently, near where Maye has been training in Alabama. I think having Howell on hand would be a benefit, not a detriment, when it comes to the Washington Commanders drafting Maye.

From ⎝Keep Pounding BR⎠ (@KeepPoundingBR): How does this WR draft class impact the WR free agency market? Especially for the Panthers?

Keep, I think it has. The draft class is phenomenal at the top, with a No. 1 guy (Marvin Harrison Jr.) who might be the best to come along since Julio Jones and A.J. Green, and two other prospects (Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze) that would be top-10 picks in most classes. From there, you also have really good depth, from Brian Thomas Jr. to Xavier Worthy, A.D. Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey and more.

Meanwhile, the free agent lot was led by Calvin Ridley, who turns 30 this year, and Tee Higgins, who’s tagged and would cost a bunch in a trade. Then, you have Tyler Boyd, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, and, well, you get the picture.

So I’d say with the recent history of players at that position producing as rookies, from the top 10 (Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson) to the middle rounds (Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St. Brown), it’s not hard to figure out why smart teams with receiver needs would wade cautiously in free agency this year.

From Henry Matthews (@henrymHuss26H): The remaining players that got the franchise tag. What is the possibility of the players staying to get traded?

O.K., Henry, with Brian Burns tagged, traded and extended, and Justin Madubuike, Jaylon Johnson and Michael Pittman Jr. paid, let’s wrap up this mailbag with a look at the other four that were franchised …

• Jacksonville Jaguars edge-rusher Josh Allen is well-positioned to get an extension—the question is at what price. His tag number is $24.007 million. I think it’d take going into the neighborhood of $28 million per to get a long-term deal, up near what Burns and Danielle Hunter got. And I do think Jacksonville gets there, probably in July, to lock Allen up long-term.

• The Cincinnati Bengals really do intend to keep Higgins, at least for 2024, with their whole focus being on winning a Super Bowl. But it’s not hard to see how this could turn into an A.J. Brown situation, where the team gets an offer close to the draft that it can’t refuse. So my guess would be eventually Higgins gets dealt.

• We already know the Chiefs are looking at trading L’Jarius Sneed, and the chances of it happening only increased when Chris Jones got his contract. I think Sneed will be dealt for a second-round pick at some point between now and the draft.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers value Antoine Winfield Jr. so much that they used the tag on him, rather than on Mike Evans or Baker Mayfield. That tells me the Bucs love him enough to get a deal done, plus get the $17.123 million lump sum the franchise tag inflicted on them off their books.