Bolivia: fake or real, the attempted coup exposes the country’s deep underlying turmoil

As the dust settles on the attempted coup in Bolivia, people are pointing the finger at the country’s president.

When heavily armed troops, spearheaded by a tank, broke through the gates of Bolivia’s presidential palace in La Paz on June 26, it appeared that the country’s military was mounting an armed coup with the aim of replacing the left-wing government of Luis Arce.

The leader of the uprising, Juan José Zúñiga, who was a military commander until his sacking on June 25, the day before the coup attempt, pronounced boldly that “there will be a new cabinet of ministers”. But even as the coup seemed to be taking shape, order was quickly restored.

Arce was filmed confronting Zúñiga as he entered the palace hallway, instructing him to stand his troops down. And within just three hours the troops had retreated, Zúñiga had been detained and Arce had named a new military high command.

Latin America is no stranger to attempted coups, and Bolivia even more so. The country tops the global rankings with 23 attempted coups since 1950, 12 of which have failed. But when he was taken into custody, Zúñiga insinuated that the coup was staged. He told the press that Arce had asked him to “prepare something” to “boost his popularity”.

His remarks have been seized upon by the opposition which has demanded a parliamentary inquiry into the claims. In Bolivia’s southern neighbour Argentina, the government of right-wing president, Javier Milei, also declared the coup attempt “fraudulent”.

It’s certainly possible that the attempted coup could have been a carefully orchestrated ploy intended to boost Arce’s standing ahead of general elections that take place in 2025.

Bolivia, which is experiencing a steadily intensifying economic crisis that Arce has struggled to address, is in a state of political turmoil. Ahead of the elections, a power struggle for control of the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party looms between Arce and his one-time ally and former leftist president, Evo Morales.

Arce became president when Morales sought an unconstitutional third term in 2019. Morales was ousted by the army and went to exile. When he returned, he announced his intention to run against Arce in 2025, a move the president has condemned as “unconstitutional”.

The struggle for control of the party has stalled government operations, worsened economic problems, and ignited street protests. Morales’s supporters in Congress, for example, have obstructed Arce’s administration by blocking efforts to secure loans and hindering plans to attract foreign investors for lithium mining.

Bolivians are currently suffering from high inflation, low economic growth and a shortage of US dollars – a situation that in the heat of the coup prompted Zúñiga to demand that the Arce government “stop impoverishing our country”.

The roots of Bolivia’s economic problems can be traced back to the presidency of Morales. The concept of “vivir bien” or “living well” formed a central part of his socialist vision. Under his governance, the state assumed control of strategic sectors such as oil and gas, mining and electricity to capture and use the tax proceeds to reduce poverty and inequality through social programmes.

Despite high levels of waste and corruption, the measures led to rapid economic and social development. Bolivia’s economy has tripled in size over the past 15 years, and poverty has been cut in half. The proportion of Bolivians living on less than US$2 (£1.58) a day fell from 45% in 2003 to 19% a decade later, while income inequality dropped substantially.

But the economic model clearly relied on the export of extractive resources. The mining and gas sectors contributed to 80% of Bolivia’s exports and half of the country’s income. This dependence exposed the country to the end of the commodity boom in 2013, when exports peaked and tax windfalls declined.

Since then, diversifying the economy has proved difficult. Bolivia is a landlocked country where around 83% of the population work in the informal sector, largely in farming and services. Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises make up 99% of Bolivia’s businesses.

Gold has been the country’s top export since 2021. But it is produced by many small-scale cooperatives that are exempt from paying tax, so has done little by way of replacing the windfall from gas exports.

One promising avenue for growth is unlocking Bolivia’s untapped lithium reserves, which are the world’s largest. But despite significant investment by Bolivia’s state-owned lithium company, Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos, exploitation is yet to start.

The economy also took a battering during the pandemic. The healthcare system collapsed and the imposition of a strict lockdown caused the loss of many people’s livelihoods, which led to low reserves of foreign currency as the government had to increase public spending. Bolivia’s government debt is now equivalent to around 80% of the country’s gross domestic product.

Do-it yourself coup?

Arce has strongly denied accusations that he was behind the attempted coup. On Thursday, when normality had been restored, he said: “We are never going to authorise weapons to be raised against the people.”

But self-coups, (auto-golpes), have happened before in Latin America. One of the most notable examples occurred in 1992 by the then president of Peru, Alberto Fujimori.

On April 5 1992, Fujimori appeared on television to announce he was “temporarily dissolving” Congress, suspending the constitution and “reorganising” the judiciary. He then ordered the army to block access to Congress with a tank, and tear gas was thrown at a parliamentary group who attempted to hold a session.

Fujimori then ruled by decree until November 1992 when he called for elections to form what he called the Democratic Constituent Congress, which was tasked with amending Peru’s 1979 constitution. In 2009, Fujimori was jailed for corruption and abuse of power during his time in office.

But most military coups and self-coups in Latin America tend to fail. The last successful coup in the region occurred in Honduras in 2009, and even then it led to fresh elections within a few months.

Whether what happened in La Paz was an attempted coup or a self coup remains to be seen. But what is clear is that Zúñiga has succeeded in generating doubt in the minds of Bolivians as the country returns to face its mounting economic, social and governance challenges.

Nicolas Forsans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.