Third GOP Debate May Have Just 3 Participants

So far, only five candidates have qualified for the stage in Miami. Trump and Ramaswamy may skip it, creating a very different debate.

At the second Republican debate in Simi Valley on September 27, the level of discourse was, by general consensus, atrocious; multiple candidates talked over one another, and one candidate — Doug Burgum — kept shouting for recognition out of turn. Perhaps it will be quieter on the set of the next debate on November 8 in Miami. At this point, only five candidates have met the RNC’s qualifications for making the stage (4 percent in two national polls — or in one national and two early-state polls — plus 70,000 unique donors from 20 states). One candidate, the overwhelming front-runner, Donald Trump, will skip the debate, just as he skipped the first two. And now Vivek Ramaswamy, burnishing his reputation as a Trump mini-me, is publicly mulling a no-show as well, apparently out of chagrin over his rough treatment from debate rivals, as Fox News reported:

The candidate, who took plenty of incoming fire from some of his onstage rivals at the first two debates, said that “my view is what best advances substantive debate for the future of the Republican Party and for the future of our country, and so we’re weighing what best accomplishes that.”

“I’m going to be looking at what best does, and we’ll evaluate whether participating in that third debate really is something that moves the ball.”

Three past debate participants are still struggling to meet the heightened requirements. Burgum has never hit the required 4 percent poll showing at any point in the campaign, so it’s unlikely he’ll hit it in two national or two state polls now. And Tim Scott, once considered a viable long-shot presidential prospect, has been regularly falling short of 4 percent in national polls as well. Mike Pence has met the polling requirement but not the donor requirement, and it’s anybody’s guess as to whether his underwhelming campaign, which is running on fumes, has enough energy to meet it.

If the debate does attract just three participants, the dynamics could be a lot calmer because the candidates won’t be competing for time to speak — or it could be more vicious as the survivors of the “invisible primary” try to become semi-viable alternatives to Trump. The recently escalated sniping between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley shows the kind of blood that might be shed on a smaller debate stage.

But the other possibility is that a smaller debate field will simply underline the irrelevance of an event without Trump, who will be taunting his semi-vanquished rivals at a rally near the debate venue. Will curious viewers tune in on a Wednesday night to watch DeSantis, Haley, and Chris Christie (and maybe Pence) strut their stuff? You never know, but it’s more likely the field of even remotely viable candidates will soon diminish even further amid wholesale apathy.