New York Dems’ Huge Redistricting Win Could Swing the House

In a 4-3 decision, New York’s highest court ordered Congressional maps to be redrawn — again.

In a seismic decision on Tuesday, New York’s highest court ordered that the state’s Congressional districts be redrawn ahead of next year’s election cycle The ruling will likely transform state maps ahead of the 2024 elections, and could result in Democrats winning back several seats they lost in 2022 — which could prove pivotal to regaining a national House majority.

In their 4-3 decision, the Court of Appeals’s justices ordered the state’s independent redistricting commission to submit a new map to the legislature, agreeing with the argument made by Democrat-aligned petitioners that the panel failed to complete its constitutionally mandated duty last year. The commission must provide the map no later than February 28, 2024.

Chief Judge Rowan Wilson wrote that, “the IRC failed to discharge its constitutional duty. That dereliction is undisputed. The Appellate Division concluded that the IRC can be compelled to reconvene to fulfill that duty; we agree. There is no reason the Constitution should be disregarded.”

In last year’s midterm elections, Democrats overperformed expectations around the country, but not in New York, where Republicans flipped four pivotal Congressional districts in the aftermath of a failed Democratic attempt at gerrymandering the state. Since then, Democrats have looked to overturn the lines put in place in 2022 — a strategy that hung in the balance this week.

The maps story began in earnest last year, when the state’s independent redistricting commission was tasked with redrawing district lines in the aftermath of the 2020 census, which resulted in New York losing one House seat. But the bipartisan panel failed to come to an agreement on a set of maps, prompting the predominantly Democratic state legislature to step in and draw its own lines that heavily favored the party. When Governor Kathy Hochul signed the new map into law, it was immediately challenged in court by Republicans, starting a drawn-out saga of rulings and appeals that led all the way to the Court of Appeals. The court would ultimately rule the map unconstitutional and appointed a neutral special master to draw new lines for the districts. Colleagues found themselves drawn into districts together, prompting some to either seek new seats or challenge their newfound neighbors. The new map made several districts more competitive than they would have been under the Democratic version, with Republicans winning most of the races in tight districts.

Petitioners, backed by the Democratic Party, argued that the court never determined if the map drawn by the special master was intended to be in place for the traditional 10 year period or if it was temporary due to the highly unique circumstances. They also claimed that the redistricting commission did not fulfill its constitutional duty when it failed to return a map.

In a statement, Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James said, “Today’s redistricting decision will ensure all New Yorkers are fairly and equitably represented by elected officials. As the Court of Appeals reaffirmed today, district lines should be drawn by the Independent Redistricting Commission. We will continue our efforts to protect voting rights for all New Yorkers.”

The Court of Appeals’s new composition likely played a role in the success of the petitioners’ argument. Since the Court last ruled on redistricting, Wilson, who dissented in the court’s previous decision to strike down the previous map, was appointed chief judge and former state solicitor general Caitlin Halligan replaced him as an associate judge, tilting the body to the left. Halligan went on to recuse herself in the matter and was replaced temporarily by Dianne Renwick, an appellate judge from the state Supreme Court, for this case.

The seats Republicans managed to wrest away in 2022 are a top electoral target for both parties next year. Right now, districts represented by Republican congressmen Anthony D’Esposito, Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro are currently listed as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Another unknown variable is the now vacant seat of former Congressman George Santos who was expelled from the House earlier this month. The February special election to finish his term is also expected to be a toss-up, but the court’s decision means the winner could possibly end up running in a completely new district for the prescheduled 2024 primary and general elections. With Santos’ exit, Republicans’ control of the House has decreased to three seats.