Will the Weather Freeze Iowa Caucus Turnout?

Iowans are proud of their ability to deal with winter conditions. But on the margins, the better-organized Trump and DeSantis campaigns could benefit.

Eight years ago, when I was covering the Iowa caucuses on-site in Des Moines, all any of us out-of-town scribblers could talk about was an impending blizzard due to hit the state the day after the voting. Would our flights be canceled? Could we get safely back to wherever we lived before the winter weather immobilized us?

You didn’t hear much fretting from the locals, who were very accustomed to snow and ice and wind and the necessity to dress in many warm layers, and who weren’t trying to leave town anyway. So is it possible that all the speculation from national political writers about the impact of the record-cold temperatures forecast for Iowa on caucus night this year may be underestimating the hardiness of likely caucus-goers — as opposed to the journalists covering their decisions?

Without question, Iowa is being buffeted by some really bad, and even dangerous, weather, as KCCI-TV reports:

A Blizzard Warning officially went into effect at 10 a.m. Friday morning.

Due to the snow and high winds, travel is not advised for most of the southeast quarter of the state, from Interstate 35 east to Illinois and Interstate 80 south to Missouri. Road conditions are dangerous — and getting worse, according to the Iowa DOT.

But the weather wizards are predicting that by Monday the blizzard will give way to dry but bitterly cold conditions, with subzero temperatures and far-below-zero wind chill. It will likely be the coldest caucus night ever. Will that significantly affect turnout?

In answering that question, it’s important to remember that marginal voters — the kind of people most likely to skip voting if it’s inconvenient or uncomfortable — don’t generally attend caucuses, which require a significant weeknight time commitment, in any event. There’s also some precedent for robust turnout on especially chilly caucus nights, notably in 2008, as the Des Moines Register recalled:

On Caucus Day, Jan. 3, Cedar Rapids endured an overnight low of 4 degrees below zero. Des Moines also recorded a low of 4 degrees, and Sioux City, 9.

The day stayed dry, but there was plenty of snow on the ground — 10 inches in Cedar Rapids, 5 in Des Moines and 3 in Sioux City.

The cold deterred few. A then-record 119,000 Republicans turned out statewide, and nearly 240,000 Democrats caucused …

The epic 2008 caucus cycle plays into the lore of the Iowa Caucuses and the weather in another way. Iowans are a hardy lot, used to the cold and snow, and can regard panic about severe weather as a sign of a newcomer who doesn’t know Iowa.

Skeptics might point out that there were red-hot Iowa contests in both parties (Barack Obama versus Hillary Clinton among Democrats; Mike Huckabee versus Mitt Romney among Republicans) in 2008; with Donald Trump expected to win easily this time around, how motivated will voters really be? There’s also the possibility that later-than-expected snow could produce icy roads on caucus night, which might deter some otherwise likely caucus-goers, particularly older voters and those in rural areas.

Maybe turnout wasn’t going to be that high in 2024 regardless of the weather. But whatever the weather, the candidates with the best caucus turnout organizations are likely to have a turnout advantage. In Iowa this year, that means Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. If any candidate is going to be hurt by a drop-off in participation by more casual voters, it’s probably Nikki Haley, though she may have enough momentum to edge DeSantis anyway.

What’s much harder to assess is how the current blizzard conditions are interfering with essential last-minute campaign events and caucus preparations. As the Register reports, the campaigns are all struggling with weather-driven plan-B scenarios:

Nikki Haley’s campaign has canceled three in-person events scheduled Friday in Fort Dodge, Le Mars and Council Bluffs due to the weather. Instead, campaign officials said they would be hosting telephone town halls …

Ron DeSantis spoke at the Northside Conservative Club in Ankeny Friday morning alongside Gov. Kim Reynolds, but Never Back Down, the PAC supporting DeSantis’ campaign, canceled the rest of his events for the day.

But the heavy front-runner in Iowa is apparently going to risk his reputation for holding jam-packed rallies:

As of Friday morning, former President Donald Trump’s four planned weekend rallies in Atlantic, Sioux City, Cherokee and Indianola were still on. 

A senior advisor to Trump’s campaign, asked Wednesday by reporters about the coming winter storm and snow, had a simple response:

“Wear a coat,” Chris LaCivita said.

Don’t count on the weather upending the caucuses, but keep an eye on the forecasts.