Nikki Haley’s Three Paths Forward After Super Tuesday
She can let her 2024 bid slowly die, go to the GOP convention with minimal clout, or shock the world with a No Labels candidacy.
We’re just days from Super Tuesday, the March 5 batch of presidential primaries and caucuses in 15 states and one territory that will award over a third of the total delegates to the 2024 Republican convention in July. There is zero reason to doubt that Donald Trump will sweep all these contests, bringing him to the brink of securing the GOP presidential nomination (he’ll likely clinch by March 19 at the latest). Nikki Haley will have to look high and low for silver linings in the results, even as a growing number of Republicans publicly and privately press her to get out of the race so the party can unite behind its tarnished champion.
It’s hard to believe that Haley, whose political instincts have always been first class, is just blundering ahead with no idea what she will do after her extremely slim hopes of becoming the Republican presidential nominee expire on March 5. So what are her realistic options? I see just three, one of which could upend the 2024 general-election campaign overnight.
Option No. 1: Play out the string and quit when it becomes necessary.
One theory as to why Haley hasn’t already dropped out is that she’s getting a significant share of the vote in Republican primaries and that donors big and small are still giving her money. Both of these reasons for keeping on keeping on may fall by the wayside after March 5, but until then, and perhaps until Trump’s nomination is secure, there’s no particular reason for Haley to pack it in — particularly if, as is likely, she has given up on any prominent role in a prospective Trump administration.
In this scenario, Haley could still grudgingly endorse Trump and preserve a role in a post-Trump Republican Party, which may occur sooner rather than later if her predictions that the 45th president is a sure loser against Joe Biden prove accurate. In the bleak morning after a second Trump defeat in November (assuming he and his supporters choose to accept defeat this time around), nobody’s going to remember or care about exactly when Haley chose to drop out of the race.
Option No. 2: Go to the convention and see what happens.
One scenario you used to hear about was that Haley is hoping a freaked-out Republican convention will turn to her if something very bad — a health crisis or a felony criminal conviction — happens to Trump before the event is gaveled in on July 15. But given Haley’s increasingly bitter and personal tone toward Trump in recent weeks, the odds of all those MAGA delegates (who would be legally bound to vote for Trump unless he drops out of the race or the convention itself releases them) choosing Haley as a sort of dime-store consolation prize are literally incredible. Approximately 200 or 300 Republican politicians and Trump family members would be ahead of her in the line to become a stand-in for the former president. So forget about Haley as plan B.
Conservative pundit Henry Olsen, however, offers a much more limited path to the convention for Haley:
Haley will arrive in Milwaukee in possession of a cache of delegates — how many is unclear; at the moment, she has 20.
The rules don’t simply give power to a candidate based on the number of delegates they possess. Candidates cannot have their names placed into nomination, and thereby get television airtime at the convention, unless they have a plurality of delegates in at least five states.
Olsen figures Haley may reach that threshold and basically use the disruptive threat of having her name placed in nomination to shake down Team Trump for … whatever it is she really wants:
Against that backdrop, Haley’s continued campaign makes a great deal of sense. The more delegates she can acquire, the more power she can exert on the floor. And the more power she can exert on the floor, the stronger hand she has to deal from to get concessions from former president Donald Trump on things she cares about, such as U.S. support for NATO. Indeed, given that the party did not even write a platform in 2020, simply insisting that it draft a new one for this election might be a significant request.
I guess anything is possible, but the last time a losing candidate followed this strategy for spoiling a coronation was in 2012 when Ron Paul’s supporters were an annoying presence at the GOP convention that nominated Mitt Romney. It did not endear Republicans to the man or his cultlike followers or bend a hypothetical Romney administration in a libertarian direction.
If Haley sticks it out until Milwaukee after being crushed in the primaries, it’s more likely she will find herself speaking to an empty hall at three in the afternoon than in some back room cutting deals to save NATO.
Option No. 3: Go No Labels.
The most perilous, but potentially the most profitable, path ahead for Haley is to leave the Trump-addicted GOP altogether (albeit temporarily) and accept a presidential nomination from the nonpartisan No Labels organization, which already has ballot access in 16 states and could wind up on many more. No Labels has publicly and repeatedly expressed interest in Haley as someone who might head their proposed unity ticket. And with other prospects like Larry Hogan and Joe Manchin ruling out a No Labels run, there’s not much question the group would greet Haley with open arms, roses, and Champagne — in part because her candidacy would ostensibly address Democratic fears that No Labels is consciously or unconsciously paving the way for a Trump general-election victory, if you assume Haley would win over a lot of GOP voters.
The question, of course, is whether Haley would make this fateful change of direction. As recently as February 26, she’s pooh-poohed the idea, saying “I’ve been a conservative Republican my whole life. I’m not going to switch over and have a Democrat vice president. That’s not something I would do.”
But it’s worth noting that her campaign-trail rhetoric has shifted of late from warning Republicans that Trump is a general-election loser against Biden to warning both parties that majorities of voters don’t want either of these candidates. It’s certainly a No Labels–compatible message. And it wouldn’t be that big a reach for Haley to morph from trying to stop Trump by begging independents and Democrats to participate in Republican primaries into appealing to both parties’ disgruntled voters.
No Labels has made it known that it will hold a virtual convention of delegates on March 8 to make the initial decision as to whether to pursue a unity ticket this year (the same delegates will later have to approve that ticket if one is formed). If these delegates have reason to believe Haley may be their presidential candidate, a “go” decision would be unsurprising. Given her positioning at the moment, polls would likely give Haley at least 20 percent of the national vote right off the bat (certainly a lot more than alternatives like Jon Huntsman would get), as Never Trump Republicans, true independents, and disgruntled Democrats who think of her as “moderate” consider backing the South Carolinian.
Unlikely as it might seem given her expressed disinterest, a Haley No Labels candidacy could create an instant splash that would generate excitement and probably attract some serious dough. Sure, in time the excitement might wear off. “Sore loser” laws in some states could make her appearance on the Unity Ticket problematic. If there’s any Haley oppo research left in Team Trump’s vaults, they would certainly unleash it if she threatens to cut into the GOP’s general-election base. And without question, Democrats hoping to limit defections to Haley while helping her among Republicans would provide constant reminders of her history, which includes hard-core anti-abortion positions, a zest for “entitlement reform,” and some of the most virulently anti-labor sentiments any politician has expressed since Taft and Hartley.
I have no idea whether Haley is capable of leaping out of her party and into a seriously powerful role in this election. If she’s going to give No Labels delegates a high sign, the night of or the day after her Super Tuesday repudiation by the GOP may be a good time to do so. And that might be a flip-flop too blatant to succeed.
The problem is that the other paths forward for Haley just aren’t very promising or even interesting. She’s doomed as a Republican and is just making herself less popular to her GOP colleagues every single day. She doesn’t strike me as the kind of person who will let the fires of her ambitions die out so easily.