In a First, Arizona Republicans Rush to Dismantle a Total Abortion Ban

Even Kari Lake, the GOP senate candidate, opposes a total ban. It’s a striking change for Republicans: After decades of tactical advances in the fight to ban abortions, they’re engaging in tactical retreats.

“Incrementalism” has been a standard feature of anti-abortion activism, both before and since the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade. While Roe was in place, many anti-abortion advocates and their Republican allies sought to chip away at abortion rights at the margins with bans on rare late-term abortions and various efforts to make life difficult for abortion providers and their patients. Just before Roe fell in 2022, some red states put into place the kind of limited bans they were used to proposing but then moved as quickly as possible to total or near-total bans that would take effect as soon as SCOTUS green-lit them (known as “trigger laws”). A good example was Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis and Republican lawmakers first enacted a 15-week ban when it was clear Roe would fall, then passed a six-week ban the following year.

As a backlash to abortion restrictions swelled across the country, voters prevented or forced roll-backs of bans wherever they could, even in red states like in Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio. For the most part, however, Republican stayed in the trenches, tried to change the subject, or argued over abstractions like a proposed national abortion ban (impractical so long as enough Democratic senators were in office to kill or filibuster it). But now a court decision in Arizona has created a new phenomenon: Republican politicians at the state level rushing to dismantle a total abortion ban and replace it with something more “moderate.” It’s anti-abortion incrementalism in reverse.

On Tuesday, a 4-2 majority of the Arizona Supreme Court — all appointed by Republican governors — brushed aside a 15-week abortion ban enacted just prior to the reversal of Roe and instead resurrected a statute dating back to 1864 that outlawed all abortions (other than those performed to save the life of the mother) and imposed criminal penalties on medical providers performing them. So overnight one of the most complete and atavistic abortion bans anywhere descended on this politically competitive state that will be a presidential and Senate battleground in November. Arizona Republicans are in disarray, and in many cases, full retreat.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Republicans in competitive congressional districts are already denouncing the court’s decision and the law it revived, as Axios reported:

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), who represents a seat President Biden won in 2020, called the ruling a “disaster for women and providers” in a statement posted to social media.

Ciscomani said the 15-week ban “protected the rights of women and new life,” but the territorial law is “archaic.”

Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), another Biden-district Republican, said the issue “should be decided by Arizonans, not legislated from the bench,” urging the state legislature to “address this issue immediately.”

Kelly Cooper, a Republican running to challenge Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), called for the state legislature to “begin work immediately on reinstating” the 15-week ban.

But the call for a retreat has extended into the heart of MAGA country, as illustrated by U.S. Senate candidate (and narrowly defeated 2022 gubernatorial candidate) Kari Lake, who is also backing restoration of the 15-week ban. And pressure on legislators to kill the 1864 law may soon become intense as prior abortion extremists back-track, suggests the Guardian:

Some of the criticisms of the Tuesday ruling came from politicians who had previously supported the 1864 ban or cheered the end of Roe v Wade. Lake previously called the ban a “great law”, according to PolitiFact. David Schweikert, an Arizona congressman who is facing one of the most competitive House races in the country this November, said on Tuesday that he does not support the ruling and wants the state legislature to “address this issue immediately”, but in 2022 said the fall of Roe “pleased” him….

“This is an earthquake that has never been seen in Arizona politics,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican consultant in Arizona, of the decision. “This will shake the ground under every Republican candidate, even those in safe legislative or congressional seats.”

Hanging over Arizona Republicans and anti-abortion advocates isn’t just the political backlash to the restoration of a total ban, but the high likelihood that the November general election ballot will include a citizen-initiated state constitutional amendment restoring abortion rights as they existed under Roe. If Republicans don’t quickly dial back abortion restrictions, voters may well go further than allowing abortions up to 15 weeks and pregnancy and take down some GOP candidates while they are at it.

This is a whole new world for the anti-abortion movement and the GOP. It’s not just a matter of being decisively on the wrong side of public opinion nationally and in most states, wherein a majority of voters reject the abolition of abortion rights. It’s that after decades of tactical advances in the fight to put the law of the land behind forced birth policies, they’re now having to engage in tactical retreats. And in November and beyond, voters will have an opportunity to give them a swift kick to continue in that direction indefinitely.