Did Trump’s Shooting End the Push to Replace Biden?

The assassination attempt on Trump paused public chatter about ousting Biden — but top Democrats are still expressing concerns in private.

Joe Biden’s 2024 candidacy appeared to be on its last legs following a June debate performance that left many Democrats questioning his viability. But Biden resisted pressure to step aside, and the assassination attempt against his Republican rival Donald Trump has largely pushed the “is Biden too old to run” debate off the front page. Biden has repeatedly condemned the attack and urged the country to come together — yet he hasn’t entirely quelled the unrest in his own party. Here’s a look at where the debate over removing Biden from the ticket stands after a string of wildly dramatic days in U.S. politics.

Talk of replacing Biden has lost momentum

Saturday’s assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, left the former president with a wounded ear; one audience member was killed and two others were badly injured. In response to the shooting, the Biden campaign announced that it was pausing advertising and communications as the president denounced the violence — a notable concession ahead of the Republican National Convention, which began Monday evening. Biden followed up his initial statement denouncing the attack with several on-air remarks, including an Oval Office address in which he urged Americans to tone down the heated political rhetoric.

Even after Biden’s largely successful NATO press conference last week, several additional Democrats came out in favor of replacing him. But the Saturday night attack effectively halted the public “replace Biden” discussion, as Democratic politicians suddenly had to navigate a sensitive national moment. One Biden-aligned source told NBC News that they believed the attack’s would essentially put an end to any talk of changing the Democratic ticket. “I think it’s over,” they told the outlet. “You just lose all momentum.”

But the behind-the-scenes push continues

Though public statements have tapered off, discussions about Biden’s chances in November are still taking place behind closed doors. Politico reported Monday that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been making calls since late June in an attempt to find a way to replace Biden on the ticket. She and former president Barack Obama have reportedly spoken privately, both voicing concerns about Biden’s ability to defeat Trump.

Meanwhile, Representative Adam Schiff warned donors over the weekend that the Democratic Party will likely suffer extensive losses in November with Biden at the head of the ticket, according to the New York Times.

In addition to these private conversations, Biden is also said to be getting some pressure directly. Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg sent polling memos to the president and his top aides warning that Biden is on the path to losing significantly in the fall, per CNN. But there are reports that members of Biden’s team are not being frank with him about his drop in the polls. On Saturday, Biden had a tense call with members of the New Democrat Coalition who raised concerns about his candidacy. The president reportedly raised his voice on the call during an exchange with Representative Jason Crow over national security.

Despite this, the party still seems largely committed to Biden as its nominee. The DNC is slated to hold a virtual roll-call vote that would officially make Biden the nominee before the Democratic National Convention begins in August. And in an NBC News interview that aired Sunday, Biden reiterated that he has no intention of leaving the race.

The latest polls don’t have much good news for Biden

Recent polling has been clearly trending downward for the president, though overall it remains a close race. A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released Monday shows Trump leading Biden by 3 percentage points in Virginia. Biden is also trailing Trump in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, 45 percent to 48 percent, while only slightly leading him in Virginia, according to a New York Times–Siena College poll. That same poll shows Vice-President Kamala Harris, who has been floated as a potential replacement candidate for Biden, faring better than her running mate. In Virginia, Harris is beating Trump 49 percent to 45 percent, while only trailing him by one point in Pennsylvania.