Trump Could Save Himself by Saving Obamacare

This isn’t the first time that we’re reading stories about Republicans taking their first baby steps toward a post–Donald Trump future. Pundits, rivals, and opponents have been looking over the horizon for signs that Trump’s grip on his party would fade since 2016. But the combination of sinking presidential job-approval ratings, terrible off-year election results, occasional acts of congressional defiance, and more-deranged-than-usual Truth Social posts has revived talk of Trump’s mojo eroding. Add in the fact that the president has run his last campaign and you can understand why the “lame duck” label is beginning to stick to him. If his so-far-faithful servants on the Supreme Court let him down in a series of big cases between now and next July, a real jailbreak atmosphere could infect the GOP and the whole world of political observers who have had to live with this turbulent man every minute for a decade.

This trend has to be excruciating for the president, who believes he has already saved the country and has earned the right to a perpetual victory lap in which he consolidates his lofty place in global history by ending wars and cutting big investment deals wherever he goes. Instead he’s having to deal with a rebellion in the very core of his MAGA movement over his relationship with the late Jeffrey Epstein, and cope with widespread public concerns over the “affordability” of life in America. This last problem clearly baffles and sometimes angers Trump, who has bought his own spin about the economy being better than ever and on the brink of new heights thanks to AI.

There is, however, something he could do right now that would reestablish his relevance, confirm his mastery of Congress, and address affordability concerns while reducing the odds of a GOP midterm apocalypse. He could reengage on the issue of extending Obamacare subsidies and buy some time for his party to finally figure out what to propose on health care.

As you may recall, the Democratic calculation immediately before and throughout the recent record government shutdown was that Trump would negotiate a subsidy extension deal and impose it on his party. But he refused to come to the table, and instead, began denouncing Obamacare itself as though it was still 2015. He also began encouraging Republicans to go back to the poisoned well of proposals to repeal and replace Obamacare with some sort of beefed-up individual health accounts instead of fixing the current system and heading off a huge insurance-premium price spike. It has sure looked like Trump was leading his party back to the agenda that bombed in 2017 and led to the loss of the House in 2018.

But now there are Republicans in both congressional chambers trying to steer their party and their president back to a temporary Obamacare subsidy patch that can head off electoral disaster while letting them continue to talk about some wonderful Obamacare alternative that will appear a bit down the road (say, after the 2026 midterms). As Punchbowl News reports, the talented dealmaker Katie Britt seems to be front and center in this effort:

Republican senators have been privately lobbying President Donald Trump to support a limited short-term extension of Obamacare subsidies, arguing it would save the GOP from a 2026 drubbing and buy time for Congress to pass a longer-term health care plan that mirrors the president’s preferences.

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) has spoken with the president several times this week to pitch the idea, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

Britt seems to have a special rapport with Trump based in part on her physical appearance. She’s also a shrewd politician who understands her party’s immediate needs:

A short-term extension of the Obamacare subsidies could mean one, two or even three years, with strict eligibility crackdowns, such as income caps and anti-fraud provisions. A Trump-led push would provide political cover for vulnerable Republicans; it would also save Thune from having to deal with a divided conference.

There’s activity in the House, too, where a bipartisan group that includes Democrats Tom Suozzi and Josh Gottenheimer and Republicans Don Bacon and Jeff Hurd have a two-year extension plan, per Punchbowl:

The bill would add a new income cap, extending the enhanced credits for families of four earning less than $200,000 per year and phasing them out for families of four earning between $200,000 and $300,000.

One other idea under discussion is a one-year subsidy extension with income caps and fraud-prevention changes, paired with a commission to negotiate a longer-term solution next year.

Time’s a-wasting, though, since the Senate vote on health care that John Thune agreed to is coming up in weeks and the politics of a short-term Obamacare subsidy-extension deal are tricky. Some Democrats are fine with Republicans doing nothing and giving them a powerful midterm message. And again, there is zero way House Republicans allow a vote on, much less agree to, any Obamacare extension unless Trump calls them in and demands it, along with all sorts of rhetorical window dressing about his determination to kill Obamacare and atomize its remains sometime real soon.

A deal is still a long shot. But Democrats need to retroactively vindicate their government-shutdown strategy, which fell short of its principal goal when Trump refused to play his part. Republicans need to get the Obamacare premium spike out of the news until November 2026. And Trump needs to show he’s still the Man, the straw that stirs every drink in American politics. The ingredients are there for the deal that has eluded everyone for so long.