Liberal Pollster Nate Silver Dismisses Hype Around Kamala Harris, Says Trump Remains Likely Winner in November
The liberal media is going all in on Kamala Harris, mirroring the efforts by Democrats to make it seem like there is tremendous excitement over the addition of Harris to the 2024 race.
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The liberal media is going all in on Kamala Harris, mirroring the efforts by Democrats to make it seem like there is tremendous excitement over the addition of Harris to the 2024 race.
Liberal pollster Nate Silver is not buying it and says that Trump remains the favorite to win in November.
It’s a clear contrast from what we’re hearing almost everywhere else in media.
The New York Post reported:
Trump remains the favorite in 2024 presidential race despite Harris’ rise: Nate Silver
Even after Democrats dramatically moved to re-top their presidential ticket and got an apparent jolt of momentum, famed election analyst and statistical guru Nate Silver still deems former President Donald Trump the favorite.
His election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of prevailing in the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris is at 38.1%.
Silver previously pegged Trump with a 65.7% chance of victory over President Biden during his model rollout last month.
In his most recent assessment, Silver included a slew of polling averages that gave Trump slight advantages nationally and in most of the battleground states, albeit not in Wisconsin, where Harris was ahead…
FiveThirtyEight had been one of the rare election forecasts that projected Biden was more likely to emerge victorious in the 2024 presidential election.
Jazz Shaw of Hot Air commented on this:
So Nate Silver sees Donald Trump’s chance of victory having dropped from 65.7% to 61.3%. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has crept up from the mid-30s to 38.1%. That’s still a fairly healthy margin. It’s not that it’s impossible for this analysis to be wrong, but you have to dig quite a way back into history to find an example of Nate missing a call by anywhere near that much.
I see him being cited on CNN nearly as much as he is on Fox News. In that sense, Silver has become the gold standard of election analysis, if you’ll pardon the precious metals pun. He doesn’t base his forecasts on his own political preferences (whatever those may be), but on the hit-and-miss rates of the other pollsters that he tracks.
That last point is important. Silver is just calling this as he sees it, based on data.
We’ll soon know if he is right.
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