Could Dems Be Opening the Door for GOP in California’s Most Progressive Cities?
This story originally was published by Real Clear Wire.
It is no secret that California remains one of the bluest states in the union. A Republican has not won a statewide election in nearly 20 years. Democrats enjoy huge supermajorities in the state legislature and run the state’s overwhelmingly progressive coastal cities. All this to say, Republicans have been boxed out of holding any considerable power in the Golden State.
And those in favor of upholding public safety have borne the brunt of this. In 2014, California voters passed Proposition 47, reclassifying some theft and drug related crimes from felonies to misdemeanors at a time when violent crime was at a 38-year low. Unfortunately, the results have been disastrous for law abiding citizens. Since 2014, violent crime has increased 24%, motor vehicle theft has increased 10%, and shoplifting has increased 36%.
All of this turmoil came to a boiling point in 2024 when voters went to the polls and passed Proposition 36, a tough-on-crime ballot measure that strengthens penalties for theft and drug related crimes – passing with more than two-thirds support and rolling back portions of Proposition 47 that was passed just 10 years prior.
Crime was also on the 2024 ballot in Alameda County, home to Oakland, where residents voted to remove their district attorney from office. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, violent crime has increased 34%, including a 38% increase in homicides and 93% increase in aggravated assaults.
And just across the bridge in San Francisco, voters removed their district attorney from office in a recall election, a rebuke to far-left progressive activists.
According to a report from the National Retail Federation, the San Francisco Bay Area ranks 2nd in the nation for organized retail crime behind none other than Los Angeles.
However, voters in Los Angeles had their own solution. In 2024, incumbent progressive District Attorney George Gascón was ousted from office. His tenure as DA was marred with controversy leading to a 12% increase in violent crime, 16% increase in robberies, 20% increase in property crime, 23% increase in auto theft, and 133% increase in shoplifting.
Gascón’s successor was none other than Republican-turned-independent Nathan Hochman who served as U.S. assistant attorney general appointed by George W. Bush. Hochman beat Gascón by a staggering 20-point margin.
Needless to say, when partisanship is not on the ballot, liberal voters are willing to support a candidate with at least some conservative values – namely on quality-of-life issues such as combatting high crime.
LA county is hardly an anomaly. Right-of-center independents have also scored victories in San Diego County, Alameda County, and Contra Costa County – all areas dominated by a heavily Democratic electorate.
Things don’t appear to be looking up for California Democrats either. A new bill having just passed the State Senate would grant parole to murderers if the crime was committed before the age of 26. And protests against Immigration and Custom enforcement (ICE) raids don’t appear to be helping their cause either, with riots and looting ravaging the streets of Los Angeles.
With many cities and counties experiencing a crime epidemic reminiscent of the 1980s, middle-of-the-road voters crave a candidate who can restore law and order to California’s once great cities. It is axiomatic that in an electorate dominated by liberal Democrats, the Republican brand is a difficult hurdle to overcome. But center-right candidates running on an independent non-partisan line have already proven successful in forming a bipartisan coalition of voters ready to reverse the state’s epidemic of violent crime.
Tommy Aramony is a polling and data manager at NPA Polling, a political polling firm.
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