California not on track to meet 2030 emissions goals: Report

California would need to triple the rate of emissions cuts that the state has undertaken since 2010 in order to meet its climate goals for 2030, a new report has found.

The Golden State's aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent below 1990's levels by 2030 may be unachievable, according to this year's California Green Innovation Index, released Thursday by the San Francisco-based nonprofit Next 10.

After California's emissions plunged during the pandemic, they jumped 3.4 percent, per the report, prepared by Beacon Economics and citing information from the California Air Resources Board (CARB).

“The increase in emissions following the pandemic makes it all the more difficult for California to meet its climate goals on time,” F. Noel Perry, founder of Next 10, said in a statement.

“In fact, we may be further behind than many people realize," Perry continued. "If you look at the trajectory since 2010, California won’t meet our 2030 climate goal until 2047. We need to triple the rate of decarbonization progress each year to hit that target.”

Preliminary data from CARB has pointed toward a renewed decline in emissions in 2022, but 2021 levels stood at 121.3 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) — a unit used to measure greenhouse gases — above the 2030 target of 260 MMTCO2e.

The California Legislature in 2016 tasked CARB with ensuring that statewide greenhouse gas emissions were slashed to that 40 percent threshold by 2030, per the text of the law, signed by the governor.

CARB took this responsibility one step further in 2022 — publishing a proposal for an even greater 48 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

To meet even the 40 percent statutory goal, California would need to go from an average annual reduction of about 1.5 percent per year to 4.6 percent per year, according to the Innovation Index.

Nonetheless, the report acknowledged that California's emissions policies are heading in the right direction. Out of all 50 states, only New York and Massachusetts have lower per capita emissions, the analysis found.

Emissions stemming from transportation — which are responsible for almost 40 percent of the state's carbon footprint — surged by 7.4 percent from 2020 to 2021, after pandemic-era travel restrictions loosened, per the report.

However, emissions from passenger cars, heavy-duty trucks and other vehicles were more than 10 percent lower in 2021, in comparison to those of 2019. 

The Innovation Index also examined statewide electricity generation, finding that this sector experienced the biggest jump in planet-warming emissions among all industries from 2019 to 2021 — surging 3.5 percent. 

“While California is moving in the right direction in many ways, renewable electricity generation must greatly increase in the coming years in order to reach the state’s goal,” Stafford Nichols, research manager at Beacon Economics, said in a statement.

That goal, according to a 2018 law, involves powering 50 percent of the state's electricity with renewable energy resources by the end of 2026 and 60 percent by 2030.

To meet the 50-percent target for renewables, Nichols stressed that Californians "need to double the speed" at which they are adding renewables to the state's energy mix — upping the annual increase in renewables' share of power generation from 4.3 percent to 8.7 percent.

While California has been a leader in the rooftop solar energy sector, the Innovation Index found that recent changes initiated by the California Public Utilities Commission — which slashed incentives for homeowners — reduced the pace of residential panel installation.

Utilities observed a 66 percent to 83 percent decline in residential rooftop-solar interconnection applications in the five months following the implementation of these new rules in April 2023.

“While California is well-positioned as a leader on climate, there are substantial obstacles to accelerating our decarbonization efforts in an equitable way that benefits all Californians,” Perry said.

“These are not insurmountable, but we need to act urgently in order to achieve these goals on time,” he added.