Trump, Biden look for edge in fundraising race

Former President Trump was able to outraise President Biden in April, but the next few months will be critical in determining whether the presumptive GOP nominee can close the president’s fundraising advantage over him.

A multi-million dollar fundraiser coupled with the elimination of any major candidate contesting him for the party nomination saw Trump make gains on Biden’s campaign war chest, but he still has work to do to make up ground after trailing in the money game for months, all while a considerable portion of his funds are still being directed to legal expenses.

Biden, meanwhile, raised $51 million in April, which falls short of the $76 million Trump raised over the same time. But when it comes to cash on hand, Biden still tops Trump entering June with $192 million total.

But the money each candidate has raised will matter less than how they plan to dole it out.

“I tend to think both of these guys will have a lot of money,” said David Lublin, a professor and chair of the Department of Government at American University. “I’d be more interested to try to see how they’re spending it and if they’re spending in ways that people think are effective.”

Since becoming the presumptive nominee in March, Trump was able to streamline donations through a joint fundraising committee set up for his campaign, a political action committee covering his legal expenses and the Republican National Committee, along with various state parties.

The terms of the joint fundraising agreement allows campaign donations to go toward Trump’s legal expenses and send the maximum amount permitted per person to Trump’s campaign before sending money to the party.

March was also big for Biden. The president brought in a $90 million haul that month, during which he campaigned in every battleground state, held a major New York City fundraiser alongside former Presidents Obama and Clinton, gave his State of the Union address and swept Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday. 

While Democrats are largely brushing off Trump’s April fundraising numbers as a one-time event, some point to Trump’s issues as all the more reason why Biden should be outraising him and not let him close the fundraising gap.

“Clinton and Democratic outside money groups out-raised Trump in 2016 and she still lost. We out-raised Trump in 2020 and it was still a race won on the margins,” said Michael LaRosa, first lady Jill Biden’s traveling press secretary during the 2020 campaign. “Given Trump's precarious legal issues, it would be pretty devastating if we were not out raising him in total.”

In April, Trump’s fundraiser in Mar-a-Lago raked in $50 million alone for the former president’s campaign. Trump earlier this month fundraised in blue Minnesota with Republican donors at the annual Lincoln Reagan dinner in St. Paul. In Texas this week, he drew in another $40 million in a single day from oil executives there, according to Bloomberg.

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s press secretary, credited small-dollar donations from every state as the source behind Trump outpacing Biden last month.

“The momentum is 100% on President Trump's side, Americans see the truth about Joe Biden's witch-hunt trial in New York, and they want President Trump back in the White House,” Leavitt told The Hill in a statement. “President Trump remains laser focused on earning votes on the campaign trail and winning big in November to make America great again

A high-profile fundraiser scheduled for June could give Biden a boost. The president will be in Los Angeles with Obama and Hollywood actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts, giving him the celebrity donor treatment.

“Heading into the critical summer months, only Joe Biden's campaign has built the strong grassroots fundraising program needed to fuel the efforts necessary to reach the voters who will decide this election,” Seth Schuster, Biden campaign national spokesperson, told The Hill.

“In the coming days and months, we will seize on high profile moments and events to raise big sums of money, while running an aggressive and durable grassroots program for November.”

Trump could get a fundraising boost after Republican Nikki Haley (S.C.) said she would vote for him over Biden this week. That could give her donors the greenlight to give to Trump and give other GOP donors, who may have supported other candidates in the primary like former Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.), the opening to rally around Trump as well.

“A lot of campaign fundraising comes from donors who would be called defensive in their giving habits. They're looking not so much to get behind someone they really are enthusiastic about, as much as they are wanting to curry favor with someone who might actually win the office,” said John Mark Hansen, distinguished service professor at the University of Chicago’s Department of Political Science.

The first of two presidential debates set for the end of June is expected to be an event that both campaigns will fundraise off of and, depending on performance, see an influx of donations after.

If the 2012 presidential race offers any insight, Biden may have a few months to go until he outraises Trump again.

When former Republican nominee Mitt Romney won the party nomination, he also was able to close the fundraising gap with Obama, the incumbent. Romney became the nominee in May 2012 and he and the RNC raised nearly $77 million that month, outraising Obama and the DNC.

In June 2012, Romney then raised $106 million, which was $35 million more than Obama. He outpaced Obama again in July, when he raised over $101 million compared to Obama’s $75 million. Obama was then able to outraise Romney come August, taking the lead back for the first time in four months. He raised $114 million compared to the Republicans’ $111 million.

The 2024 cycle though is starkly unique, considering a former president is running against the incumbent and faces mounting legal bills. Trump spent about $4 million on legal fees in March. He dropped about $30 million in the last half of 2023 on his legal bills alone.

But experts also stressed that money is not the only indicator of a candidate’s success.

Lublin pointed to the Maryland Democratic Senate primary from earlier this month in which Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) vastly outraised Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by a factor of more than 6 to 1 but still lost by about 10 points.

But Alsobrooks had still raised a respectable total in the primary, nearly $8 million.

“President Trump certainly has had his own strategy, and it’s worked for him and gotten him way further than most people would have dreamed,” Lublin said. “President Biden has been underestimated too. We’ll just have to see how they do.”