Bye-bye, Biden
The only person happier than Donald Trump after tonight’s presidential debate is Vice President Kamala Harris. Given the disastrous performance by President Biden, it would be political malpractice of the highest order not to replace him at the top of the Democratic ticket.
From the very start when he crept out uncertainly onto the stage, Biden was awful. The two-shot from CNN was brutal when Trump spoke. Biden was slumped, slack-jawed and stunned. His voice was hoarse and trembling. If the goal of an early debate and the bad rules by the Biden campaign was to test their candidate with an eye toward replacing him, then it was mission accomplished.
Without the crowd to push him along and the ability to interrupt, the restrictions of the night worked to Trump’s advantage. The former president had a great rejoinder when he said Biden cannot claim credit for the “bounce-back” recovery on COVID. Not surprisingly, Trump had the better rhetoric, while Biden’s “malarkey” line is as old and tired as him.
Going into the debate, the stakes were high for both sides; both candidates are old and unpopular, with raised serious questions about their mental fitness. The race, frozen for months, had the best possibility to move with this debate. The most risk was for Biden. His numbers on age and mental fitness are terrible and his issue numbers are even worse.
But Trump was at risk as well. Questions remain about his own temperament and acuity. But where Biden could not get through the State of the Union without flubbing multiple times – despite reading off a Teleprompter — Trump was more likely to be able to paper over his problems, given his greater experience speaking extemporaneously and decades of parry and thrust with the media.
The best part of the night for Biden was when Trump was led into the swamp of his legal troubles and the events of January 6. The former president had a good line when he said, “my retribution is success.” The problem for Biden is that this part was stuck in the middle of the evening. By then, the audience had already seen and heard the disastrous first 30 minutes, seriously limiting any advantage gained for Biden. Worse for Biden is that Trump’s legal issues are a side matter for voters, compared to inflation and immigration.
Of course, Trump exaggerated and will be fact-checked into the ground, but he performed with confidence. And even on that score, Biden had his own share of whoppers.
None of that matters. Tonight's debate ended Joe Biden’s political life.
Harris time
The real question now is how long it will take to shove Biden aside and replace him with Kamala Harris. It may take several awful polls for reality to set in for Biden’s delusional team, but the move has to be made — and there simply is not anyone but Kamala Harris to step up to the plate at this point in the game.
Only Harris, as vice president, has the name recognition and the platform to move in. There are no senators or members of Congress with the public profile or the standing to jump in. Of the 2020 primary candidates, Bernie Sanders is older than Biden; Elizabeth Warren is 75. Pete Buttigieg failed his 2022 tryout. As governors, Gavin Newsom and J.B. Pritzker are going to have a hard time transitioning to a national campaign (not to mention that California’s problems do not help Newsom).
Harris’s polling is not great, but her numbers are no worse than Biden’s going in. The RealClearPolitics approval average for Harris is negative 15 points, while the president’s is a bit higher at negative 15.6 points (as of the writing of this piece). There is not really much in-depth polling on Harris — although that’s sure to change now.
A recent Politico/Morning Consult poll looked more deeply at at Biden’s VP. The results were not that remarkable; they look as though they just track the partisan split in the country. Voters were asked if they trusted Harris on a series of issues. On the economy, she was down 45 percent to 46 percent, and down 40 percent to 50 percent on immigration. She is positive on protecting Medicare/Social Security 47 percent to 44 percent, and on abortion 51 percent to 40 percent — strong Democratic issues.
How would she fare against Trump? The most recent national poll is from Emerson all the way back in February, where Trump led Harris 46 percent to 43 percent. The RealClearPolitics national polling average has Trump leading 46.6 percent to 45.1 percent.
Looking at the recent YouGov poll, Harris is at roughly the same favorability level, at 37 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval, with Biden at 39 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval. Harris does a bit better with Independents, with a negative 37 points against negative 41 points for Biden.
On leadership, Trump trumps both, but Harris does better than Biden. Harris is still negative, at 44 percent, considering her a strong leader vs. 55 percent who do not. Biden is down 35 percent to 65 percent. She also does better with independents by 15 points. And, she does not have Biden’s mental fitness and age issues.
Switching in Harris must happen for the Democrats — even 159 presidential scholars should approve.
Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.