Republicans have 65 percent chance of winning House

Republicans have a two-thirds chance of retaining their House majority in November, a warning sign for Democrats as President Biden struggles to tamp down concerns over the impact of his candidacy downballot, according to a Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecast released Tuesday. 

DDHQ noted that the chances of the GOP winning the House rose 1 percentage point since its forecast this week, with Republicans seen as the favorite to win 11 out of 16 toss-up races. 

The forecast comes less than two weeks since Biden's disastrous debate performance against former President Trump, which has amplified concerns about his party’s chances of keeping the White House and Senate and flipping the House.

“Six, seven months ago, it was a disaster for Republicans and Kevin McCarthy and all that turmoil,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ. 

“But by and large, the generic ballot for Republicans has been good, unusually good, in a presidential year, and that has really trickled down to some of these House races, which is why we see the Republicans slightly favored in 11 of the 16 toss-ups,” he continued. 

Tranter explained that “atmospherics” tend to drive House races during a presidential year and noted that a “fair bit” of that is being driven by Biden’s debate performance. 

“I think the early data is a good trend for Republicans, and if the early data continues, the trend will only get better for the Republicans,” Tranter said.

The Decision Desk HQ forecast also noted that Trump has a 58 percent chance of flipping the White House in November, while Republicans have an 82 percent chance of flipping the Senate. 

The forecast underscores Democrats’ lingering fears that keeping Biden at the top of the ticket could impact their ability to keep the White House and hold onto the Senate majority in the fall. 

Seven House Democrats have called on the president to withdraw from the race, though Biden has remained adamant that he’s staying in the contest — much to the chagrin of members within his party.