Republicans fear Trump may not have Senate coattails

MILWAUKEE — Senate Republicans were riding high after President Biden’s implosion on the debate stage in Atlanta — but they were soon confronted with polling showing Democratic incumbents leading in every single battleground state except Montana.

The polling showing Senate Democratic candidates doing better than the beleaguered Biden in their respective states raised alarms among GOP lawmakers that former President Trump may not have long enough coattails when it comes to Senate races.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) says the Democrats’ advantage in key states such as Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is simply a matter of incumbents’ name ID.

Daines points out that Republican candidates are polling more closely to their Democratic opponents in open-seat races in Arizona and Michigan.

But the stubborn fact remains that Democratic Senate candidates have run well ahead of Biden for months, suggesting that while voters have a poor opinion of Biden, that view isn’t translating to Democrats more widely.

A pair of polls by The New York Times/Siena College showed a pair of Democrats — Sens. Bob Casey (Pa.) and Tim Kaine (Va.) — outperforming Biden by 14 percentage points and 15 percentage points in their respective states.

The recent public polls reflect the sobering reality check Republican senators got when they attended a special briefing on the 2024 political landscape at the NRSC’s headquarters in Washington last week.

“We’re going to continue to run like we’re 5 points behind, because right now, the polls show that. But it’s not lost on us that as we turn the corner into Labor Day and to the finish, you’re going to see these races tighten up,” Daines said, noting that of the past 69 Senate races, 68 have mirrored the results of the presidential race. Sen. Susan Collins’s (R-Maine) reelection win in 2020 was the lone exception. 

“You’re always concerned by that. Always concerned,” he said of the possibility that trend gets bucked. “That’s why there’s an intensity and a work ethic right now at the NRSC and amongst our candidates unlike any before.”

One Republican senator who attended the meeting said a mix of internal and high-quality public polling has Montana Republican candidate Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) by only 3 points despite Trump leading Biden in the state by 21 points — a margin reflected in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) average of polls.

And the source said party strategists privately concede Sheehy may even be “down a little bit,” though they expressed confidence that Republicans who ultimately defeat Tester on Election Day.

The senator said polling also showed Republican candidate Bernie Moreno trailing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) by 3 points despite Trump leading Biden in the Buckeye State by 10 points. The Hill/DDHQ’s average, though, put Brown ahead by about 6 points.

But in Ohio, as in Montana, Republican strategists think Moreno will be able to catch up to and surpass Brown as he gains more name ID from huge political advertising expenditures.

Pennsylvania is another red flag for Senate Republicans.

“In Pennsylvania, Trump was up 4 or 5, and [Senate GOP candidate] David McCormick is down 7,” the source said of Senate GOP polling.

Daines dismissed concerns, arguing the numbers represent early summer polls that will tighten in the coming months. 

“I just don’t put a lot of weight in those. There’s still a lot of time left to define the Democrat incumbents that has not been done yet. That’s coming,” Daines said, arguing he is encouraged the races are within striking distance.

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate, earlier this year floated his concern that Trump may trounce Biden so completely in Ohio that Republican voters may not be fully motivated to show up at the polls for Moreno and other downballot candidates.

“I actually worry that Biden is doing so poorly in Ohio, which is obviously good on the presidential side. But I want people in Ohio to actually turn out, and if the perception — rightfully — is that Biden is getting his rear end kicked in Ohio, you worry about turnout among our voters. If the turnout among our voters is lower, Trump will still win, but it might affect some of the downballot races,” Vance told The Hill in May.

“So I do think we have a job in the Ohio Republican Party to keep people engaged,” he said. 

Moreno downplayed Brown’s lead in the Ohio Senate race as a reflection of Brown’s wider recognition among voters after three terms in the Senate.

“I was coloring with crayons when Joe Biden was running for public office,” Moreno said. “It’s a factor of name ID. Once people know who I am, I think it will be pretty good for me. I started the campaign last April, I was polling at 4 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error. So theoretically I could have been negative 1, and I ended up winning [the GOP primary] by 18 points.”

A Democratic aide said internal Democratic polling shows Brown leading Moreno by 6 points. 

Asked about the disparity between Trump and Senate GOP candidates, Daines said the polls reflect the power of incumbency. 

“Wherever we have an incumbent — Republican incumbent — running like Ted Cruz and Rick Scott … the Trump number and their own number match virtually identically. Where you have an open seat like in Michigan — Michigan is the best example of that  — you’ve got a race that’s basically tied at the Senate level, when Trump’s up a couple,” Daines said. 

“You’ve got [Democratic] incumbents in these states where our challengers are running a bit behind the Trump number. That’s a function of name ID. It’s still early. I think we found May through July polls are usually not indicative of what happens in November,” he said. 

“What we’re seeing in terms of trends from 2008, ‘12, ‘16 and ‘20, there’s been a split from ticket splitting,” he said of the trend over the past four presidential cycles of Senate races closely following the outcomes at the top of the ticket in battleground states.

The stability of Senate Democrats’ leads in the polls since April is comforting Democratic lawmakers who are worried about Biden’s viability as a candidate.

One Democratic senator who has privately questioned Biden’s ability to win in November noted that his political problems are largely confined to his own candidacy and acknowledged it’s uncertain whether Democratic incumbents would be polling as well if Vice President Harris replaced Biden as the nominee.

“Biden’s problem is that voters think he’s too old, but they don’t think that about Tester or Sherrod,” the senator said.

Daines also added that if the election were held today, Trump would win in a “landslide” and sweep the battleground states. 

The Biden issues for Democrats were on display during an event in the Republican National Convention host city Monday as Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) campaigned alongside Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and avoided mentioning the president, including when pressed by reporters afterward.

According to a new YouGov survey, Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde by 7 percentage points — a stark contrast to the presidential side, where Trump leads Biden by a 5-point margin.

The Wisconsin Democrat pressed that she still believes the state will provide close calls come November but attributed her current polling strength to “showing up” across the state. 

“I listen to the concerns of the people of this state, and then I go fight for them, and that crosses partisan lines,” she said, adding that she is skeptical that there will be many ticket-splitters come the fall. 

Booker put a finer point on it, saying that her support goes back to her ability to bring funds and projects to Wisconsin.

“Why are people in this state supporting her more than they support potentially other people on the ticket? It’s because for the last decade … she’s delivered for this state,” Booker said.

One GOP operative with knowledge of internal polling says Baldwin’s leads have consistently mirrored public polls, though the gap between her and Hovde is sometimes within the margin of error.

A second Republican strategist pressed that while the wide gap between Democratic incumbents and Biden is of concern, it should shrink in the coming months. 

"It's definitely something that anybody working on Senate races should be concerned about,” the strategist said. “But it's not an existential crisis.”