Critical labor union endorsement may not land at Democrats’ door

President Biden stands to face a major blow in 2024 if he doesn’t secure the endorsement of the Teamsters labor union that is vowing to do its “due diligence” instead of automatically backing Democrats.

Teamsters president Sean O’Brien so far appears to be playing both sides, calling Biden “definitely the most pro-labor president we’ve ever had, we’ve ever seen” but then also landing a spot as a keynote speaker at this year’s Republican National Convention with former President Trump in the crowd.

There, he called Trump “one tough SOB” after an assassination attempt at a rally. O’Brien has said he’s asked to speak at the Democratic National Convention slated for next month, but has not been invited yet.

That circumstance proves peculiar given Biden often lauds himself as the most pro-union president, often visiting labor union halls and even once joined a picket line.

“There’s a fair amount of frustration in labor, overall, and I think there’s political malpractice on the part of Democrats. And as a result, you have Sean O'Brien addressing the Republican Convention, signaling that, as a union member, you could think that it might be okay to vote for Trump,” said Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of the progressive group Our Revolution.

While Biden enjoyed union support in 2020 and won several key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Democrats still lost many union workers that cycle to Trump, whose anti-free trade message and other rhetoric resonated with the labor vote, including in Ohio. In 2016, there was a significant shift in union support toward Republicans, helping lead to Trump’s victory in states like Ohio and Michigan.

Union workers are among the essential voting blocs in 2024 that Biden needs as he works to rebuild the coalition that won him the White House in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump has named Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (R), who is seen as a way to boost the former president’s support among middle-class and working-class Americans.

Geevarghese argued that the Teamsters withholding their vote could be indicative of a possible shift for union workers turning to Trump, like in 2016.

“I think the working class vote and the union vote is up for grabs,” he said. “I don't think they've necessarily witnessed a dramatic turnaround, even though, the president’s made some significant investments in infrastructure, in manufacturing. The problem is that return on investment is going to be several years down the road…none of this is happening overnight. I think that’s something that Donald Trump’s going to exploit.”

Kate Bronfenbrenner, director of Labor Education Research at Cornell University, though argued that O’Brien’s appearance at the convention and the Teamsters’ lack of an endorsement isn’t part of a larger trend with unions, it’s a political play.

“I think that what we're seeing now is the president of the Teamsters thinking that Trump's probably going to win, and that if the Teamsters go with a winner, it's going to help them,” she said. “I don’t think they're going to endorse, I think what he's doing is getting as much mileage as he can without endorsing.”

The Teamsters told The Hill they have traditionally endorsed after the conventions and that Teamsters are getting members’ input in a variety of ways and using that to inform whatever decision is made.

And, the DNC hasn’t officially announced its list of speakers for August, yet.

“I've never known them to exclude the union that wanted to come,” Bronfenbrenner said of the Democrats. “[O’Brien] believes [O’Brien’s] playing his cards in a smart way. And the question is, will it backfire with his membership and with the rest of the labor movement? And if Biden or a Democrat were to win, would it backfire significantly?”

Biden received early endorsements from other major union groups, including the top union organization, the AFL-CIO in June 2023 along with AFSCME and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, among others.

His allies back his support among unions and also argue that he is the most pro-union president in American history.

“We have the most pro-union, pro-worker president in the history of this country and I say that as a union member, who’s there for our collective bargaining rights, who’s there for our workers’ safety, who’s there for our pension,” Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) said on Wednesday.

Biden in March met with the Teamsters to try and sway them to officially endorse him, in an effort to lock in more critical support from a major labor union.

He’s also spoken at various labor conferences to tell unions they “brung me to the dance,” a phrase he repeats in labor circles, and to try to align himself to them.

“Some folks learn very different lessons growing up than you and I did… they learn, and my opponent learned, the best way to get rich is inherit it,” Biden said in April to the conference for International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), a big labor group that has endorsed his reelection bid.

He then told a conference of the North America’s Building Trade Union, which endorsed him, “we all know people like Trump who look down on us. Don’t we? We all know somebody we grew up with like that.” 

Meanwhile, polling indicates that Americans don’t have confidence in Biden’s handling of the economy and Biden has struggled to sell Americans that his economic agenda is working. 

An ABC News/Ipsos poll in May found that 46 percent of Americans say they trust Trump on the economy and inflation while 32 percent said the same of Biden, despite the economy shifting away from high inflation for months.

Biden also has a history with the Teamsters during this presidency. O’Brien had asked the White House not to intervene if UPS workers started to strike last July, after the White House had intervened in September 2022 to avoid a nationwide railroad strike.

Biden in September 2023 became the first sitting president to cross a picket line when he joined a United Auto Workers strike in Michigan, leading to an endorsement months later from the group that was skeptical of his electric vehicle push.

But, the hold out from the teamsters and O’Brien’s appearance in Milwaukee is “highly problematic” for Biden, Geevarghese said.

“Whether or not O'Brien formally endorsed at the Republican convention is beside the point,” he said. “What Sean O'Brien did was give a permission structure for rank-and-file union voters to be open to voting the Republican ticket.”