Internal polling shows Harris ahead of Biden in net favorability
Vice President Harris led President Biden in favorability among key demographics, according to an internal poll run by the Biden-Harris campaign earlier this month.
Harris, who now holds the inside track to become the Democratic presidential nominee after Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday, was running ahead of Biden in large part because of her lower unfavorability numbers.
“What we are seeing in our data is that Harris has much better net favorability with key segments of Latino voters, segments that will be key to Democratic victory. This is driven by her general popularity, but also her much lower unfavorable ratings,” said Matt Barreto, president of BSP Research, a group that conducts internal polling for the Democratic presidential campaign.
“While Biden had unfortunately seen his unfavorable ratings increase among Latinos, the same is not true with Harris; she remains quite favorable with Latinos, in particular younger, undecided and third-party leaners who will be the critical element in November.”
The seven battleground state polls conducted between June 28 and July 10 among 2,001 respondents tested favorability for Biden, Harris and former President Trump.
According to a polling memo reviewed by The Hill, Trump’s net favorability among Latinos was net negative in all the battlegrounds surveyed, and Harris led both him and Biden in key segments.
“First, among undecided, independent and third-party voters, Harris is more popular than Trump or Biden. Second, among younger Latinos Harris has her strongest favorability advantage, exceeding the President by 16-22 points. Third among women, Harris has strong favorability,” reads the memo.
The vice president was also found to lead Biden among Puerto Ricans, in Pennsylvania, among Spanish speakers and with presidential-year surge voters.
The memo, written before Biden dropped out of the race, concluded that “the Vice President can be a significant asset to the Biden-Harris ticket and make strong connections with Latino voters on behalf of President Biden in the reelection campaign.”
Harris’s biggest lead over Biden, according to the poll, was among “double haters,” or voters who disapprove both him and Trump. In that group, Harris’s net favorability was 46 points higher than the president’s.
Among Latinos ages 18 to 24, Harris led Biden by 22 points, and she led by 20 points among Latino Republicans.
Specifically among Latinas in that age group, Harris’s advantage grew to 24 points.
Latino survey respondents who said they were planning to vote for a third party also broke heavily in favor of Harris, who led Biden by 21 points in net favorability among those voters.
According to Barreto, a large part of the vice president’s advantage is due to the negative effect Biden’s age had on his favorability.
“Given that a top concern for Latino voters was Biden's age, Harris almost immediately recovers that deficit and has the ability to push the Latino vote support numbers into new heights. We already know from her election as attorney general and U.S. senator in the largest Latino state that she has the ability to connect and win over Latino voters,” said Barreto.
“For those who don't remember, she defeated three Latino candidates in the Democratic primary for attorney general and defeated a Latina Democrat in her election to U.S. Senate. Harris has one hell of a good track record campaigning and winning the Latino vote, and these favorability numbers give me a lot of optimism.”