US enacts full-court diplomatic press as fears grow of larger Middle East war

The Biden administration is carrying out a full-court, diplomatic press on its allies and partners in the Middle East to limit escalation in the likely attack by Iran and its proxies against Israel. 

President Biden and Vice President Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, were set to meet Monday with national security officials in the White House Situation Room after Iran reiterated its intention to punish Israel for the apparent assassination of top Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Biden on Monday spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah II following Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s calls with the Qatari prime minister and Egyptian foreign minister. Blinken also over the weekend spoke with his counterparts of the Group of Seven nations and held separate calls with the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom and France and the Iraqi prime minister. 

“We don't want to see Iran take further action, and that's the message we are consistently delivering to our partners in the region,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said at the Monday briefing.

“We’re at a critical moment for the region, and it’s important that all parties take steps over the coming days to refrain from escalation and calm tensions. Escalation is in no one’s interest.”

In a show of diplomatic urgency, Jordan Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made an extremely rare trip to Tehran on Sunday, seeking to influence Iran’s response. The Associated Press reported it was the first visit by a senior Jordanian official to Iran in more than 20 years. 

But it’s unclear whether the diplomacy will have an impact, said Gordon Gray, former ambassador to Tunisia and a more than three-decade State Department veteran who served in senior roles focused on the Middle East. 

“I give them credit for trying, if that's what they did, but that's not going to be a message that's listened to,” he said. 

“I think there will be retaliation, I think that that's inevitable. It's a question of, if nothing else, of saving face or national honor. The question is the scope of that retaliation.”

Even as the U.S. sought to cool tensions, the Pentagon dispatched significant resources to the region in anticipation of the attack.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday ordered a fighter jet squadron, Navy ships and air defenses to the Middle East in an effort to “mitigate the possibility of regional escalation by Iran or Iran’s partners and proxies.”

The Pentagon also said it would maintain a carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, move more ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the European and Middle East regions and ready additional land-based ballistic missile defenses for the area.

The beefing up of military might in the region makes good on Biden’s promise last week to bolster Israel’s security, a vow made in a Thursday phone call to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Biden “discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments,” according to a readout of the call.

The administration maintains that the U.S. priority is to prevent a wider war in the Middle East.

“The United States also remains intently focused on de-escalating tensions in the region and pushing for a cease-fire as part of a hostage deal to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza,” Austin said Friday.

U.S. Central Command head Gen. Michael Kurilla, the ​general in charge of American forces in the Middle East, is also in the region, the Pentagon confirmed Monday. Although the trip was planned ahead of the recent escalations, he is reportedly trying to help mobilize an international and regional coalition to defend Israel’s skies.

The U.S. military last played a major role in directly defending Israel nearly four months ago, on April 13 and 14, when its forces helped shoot down hundreds of missiles and drones launched by Iran.

Biden’s dispatching of serious military assets demonstrates the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security, but his patience is reportedly wearing thin with Netanyahu over the failure — so far — to achieve a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas and the wisdom of killing Haniyeh inside Tehran at a crucial moment in the talks. 

Netanyahu had been in the U.S. on a high-profile visit the week before the Haniyeh killing.

The New York Times reported that Biden told Netanyahu Haniyeh’s assassination was “poorly timed.” An Israeli broadcaster went further, saying Biden told Netanyahu to “stop bulls‑‑‑ing me,” after the Israeli leader told the president that his country was moving forward with negotiations on a hostage deal.

Biden described his call with Netanyahu as “very direct” and said he told Netanyahu he should “move” on the cease-fire immediately. 

“We have the basis for a cease-fire. He should move on it, and they should move on it now,” Biden said Friday.

While families of hostages held by Hamas emerged after a meeting between Biden and Netanyahu in Washington on July 25 expressing new optimism that the deal was within reach, dangerous events on the ground have outpaced any goodwill between the negotiating parties.

“I wouldn't characterize them as stalled,” Miller said at the State Department on Monday. “That agreement still stands. Nothing that's happened over the course of the past week has done anything to erode the fundamental agreement on the framework to this cease-fire.”

That framework, which Biden laid out at the end of May, would halt the fighting, release Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The truce would also allow for the scaling up of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip, and allow displaced Palestinians from the north to return to their homes. 

The White House said earlier it believed gaps between Israel and Hamas were bridgeable — but Hamas has accused Israel of adding new terms in the discussions, which Israel reportedly said is false. 

Israeli negotiators reportedly met for hours in discussion in Cairo on Saturday, but there’s little indication that gaps were closed.

“The two decisionmakers in this are Benjamin Netanyahu and [Hamas chief in Gaza] Yahya Sinwar, and it’s not clear to me that either perceives that it’s in their best interests to have a cease-fire agreement,” said Gray, who is the Kuwait professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula affairs at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.  

“As a former diplomat that has spent a lot of time in the Middle East … you almost have to be optimistic,” Gray continued. “But we have to look at the situation — and it's hard to be too upbeat about the prospects for conclusion of a cease-fire agreement anytime soon.”