RFK Jr.'s possible alliance with Trump threatens to roil election

The growing possibility that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could drop out and endorse Donald Trump is injecting further chaos into an already unpredictable moment in the election.

Kennedy’s allies emphasize that nothing is final yet, and members of his team are in disagreement over how to move forward. But the two campaigns have been negotiating this week, The Hill has learned, with one scenario having Kennedy drop out as early as Friday and back the former president.

The prospect of such a move is already causing speculation about what it means for Vice President Harris, with some observers suggesting it could seriously impact her odds against Trump.

“It’s a very big deal because we’re talking about an election that will be decided by inches on the electoral map,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell.

Meanwhile, there are still potential hurdles for the Kennedy and Trump campaigns as they weigh a potential deal. One source close to Kennedy, who has been briefed on the deliberations, said the third-party candidate’s stipulations could pose a problem for Trump’s team.

“Bobby wants to bring people with him onto the Trump campaign and this might be a deal breaker,” the source said.

Kennedy, 70, is also getting considerable pushback from the closest and most important member of his inner circle, his wife and actress Cheryl Hines, the source said, who “really does not want him” to back Trump.

“He’s contending with that,” the source said.

Running a third-party insurgent campaign against considerable headwinds has been difficult from the start for Kennedy, a former Democrat. But as his chances of securing the White House went from unlikely to practically nonexistent, he has been warming to the idea of dropping his bid, sources close to Kennedy said. 

Tempted by a potential role in a second Trump administration, the environmental lawyer now sees advantages to joining the former president’s effort to defeat Harris and reclaim the Oval Office. And he’s setting the stage by sharing his favorite parts about Trump while he runs his own campaign.

Trump has returned the favor. The Republican nominee has heaped more praise this week on Kennedy, whose candidacy threatens to take votes away from the former president in critical swing states. On Thursday, Trump said he would be “honored” if Kennedy endorsed him, the latest in a string of compliments he has offered his rival.

The mutual infatuation, which has happened now in public and private, has been building as both candidates prepare to give speeches on Friday in Arizona. Trump’s stop is expected to offer voters more standard campaign fare, while the chatter around what Kennedy will say has gone in several directions.

In an announcement, his campaign said the remarks will address “the present historical moment and his path forward.”

But Kennedy’s own circle is facing an existential crisis over how to handle the event. A second source directly familiar with the negotiations told The Hill that there’s a massive debate between different factions of his team over what is the best outcome for Kennedy.

One group believes that he should formally end his campaign during the speech and give Trump his full-throated support. Their preferred scenario would be to set up Kennedy for a post within Trump’s possible administration, where he can help bring some of his outsider policy ideas into fruition. 

The other camp wants Kennedy to push for specific demands before he lends his backing to Trump. Top on their list is for Trump to give assurances that he will help protect the ballot access infrastructure that Kennedy’s team has built up through a complicated process where they’ve faced pressure from donors.

“It’s literally a $15 million asset they’re negotiating over,” said the second source with knowledge of the talks, speaking without attribution to discuss internal deliberations.

“Somehow you can negotiate to keep Bobby on the ballot in the hardest-won states,” the source added, naming Arizona, Pennsylvania and New York as a handful of places where maintaining his ballot line is particularly crucial.

The second source, who believes Kennedy should pursue that strategy, views the former president somewhat cynically. He believes that Trump wants Kennedy’s voter base but is not necessarily inclined to help the candidate himself, despite his recent flattery. He would have to make a formal promise that he would help put resources behind any efforts to kick him off the ballot, including enlisting the RNC to counter-sue Democrats’ lawsuits in some cases. 

“If Kennedy has made the right deal, that he gets everything he wants, he’ll back Trump,” the source added. “If not, he’ll walk away.”

Kennedy has appeared to be reaching out on both sides of the aisle as he falls in polls to single-digits. He reportedly tried to get a meeting with Harris about a Cabinet position, and chatted with Trump about it too, though his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, shrugged off any traction with Harris in a recent interview calling a Harris-Walz presidency a "risk" of staying in.

Democrats initially saw Kennedy as the bigger threat. But this spring, polls started to suggest that Kennedy could hamper both men, and some Republican strategists suggested concerns were building in the former president’s orbit.

Now, after Biden’s historic withdrawal, polls are flashing warning signs for Trump. Harris has a nearly 3-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head, according to the latest averages from Decision Desk HQ, with around 49 percent to Trump’s 47 percent. In a three-way contest, Harris drops just 1 point, to 48 percent, while Trump falls almost 3 points, to 44 percent – with Kennedy pulling in 3 percent.

“The polling has sort of shown that he's been pulling from both candidates, and at different times he's pulled from one more than the other,” Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak said of Kennedy. “I think that does raise some questions about what, really, the net impact of all this is really going to be.”

“Anytime a candidate drops out and endorses you, it’s going to bring a pretty decent percentage of their supporters in your direction,” he said.

Kennedy’s potential exit and endorsement could be important for Trump in decisive states. The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election manual, found that 45 percent of Kennedy voters in swing states say they’d go for the Republican in a Trump-Harris two-way, while just 26 percent said they’d support Harris. 

The timing will also be key. If he does go through with a campaign suspension on Friday, the announcement will come a day after the Democratic National Convention wraps up in Chicago.

Democratic strategist Doug Wilson, like others in his party, wasn’t as convinced that Kennedy’s support would significantly tip the scales when Harris is marginally ahead. It might make the race “tighter,” but he argued Democrats could make up for it with a stronger turnout plan for Election Day.

“It may give Trump an extra 2 percent, 3 percent in some states, but if we, on the Democratic side, can get our voters out and get them out in high numbers, we can block that,” Wilson said.