Democrats see abortion battle as chance to make gains in Florida

Democrats are seeking to put Republicans in Florida on defense over the issue of abortion.

While winning the Sunshine State will be an uphill climb for Democrats, Vice President Harris’s campaign has increased its presence in Florida amid an effort to legalize the procedure in the state through a ballot initiative that will go before voters in November.

The “Fighting for Reproductive Rights” bus tour launched Tuesday in Palm Beach, former President Trump’s hometown, and will feature Harris surrogates meeting with voters to discuss access to reproductive rights.

Additionally, polls show an increasingly tight race for Florida’s Senate seat, as former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) hammers incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) on abortion rights.

“Florida is undoubtedly more competitive now than it was a couple of months ago,” one Democratic operative said.

Democrats up and down the ballot in Florida have pounced on the issue ever since it was clear that it would be on the ballot this fall.

When Florida’s state Supreme Court ruled a six-week abortion ban approved by the state Legislature could take effect in April, it also allowed for a ballot measure to go before voters in the fall. That measure will allow them to weigh in on whether to protect access to abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy.

Last week, former President Trump made headlines when he said he thought the state’s six-week abortion ban was “too short.” However, the next day, Trump said he will vote against Florida’s Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution. 

“Trump is tying himself to that six-week abortion ban,” the Democratic operative said. “There is no reason why he had to say he was supporting it except for fear on the right.” 

Democrats also point to victories in recent special elections, including a special election in State House District 35 for a seat that was previously held by a Republican. Additionally, Democrats cite last month’s defeats of a number of school board candidates backed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who is appearing on the Harris bus tour, said Tuesday that abortion makes Florida competitive this cycle, pointing to the Mucarsel-Powell race to replace Scott.

“I think you’re going to see Florida in play, and an amendment for [reproductive rights] puts it on the map in a big way,” she told CNN.

Republicans, however, are downplaying the significance of the issue. Trump won Florida by 3 points in 2020, but since then the party has seemingly strengthened their hold on the Sunshine State, sweeping to victory there in the 2022 midterms even as the party fared poorly in other parts of the country.

“They’re just trying to look for electoral votes anyway possible and because of the issue of abortion it’s clear that’s why the Harris campaign is trying that,” said GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, referring to the Harris campaign. “They’re looking at the exact same electoral numbers as the Trump campaign.”

Republicans also note that the economy will ultimately be a larger priority among the state’s most historically reliable voters.

“Gov. DeSantis has made the economy the No. 1 issue for Florida voters. It remains their top concern. Democrats may make some inroads with voters with the abortion issue but it’s going to be an uphill battle for them,” said Dan Eberhart, a Trump donor. “The population has gotten older and more conservative over the last decade. They aren’t going to be able to change the demographics.” 

Still, the Harris campaign is considering Florida an important state, as evident in the more than 80 staff members it has assigned there. More than 40,000 Floridians have reached out to the Harris campaign to volunteer since she launched her presidential bid in July, according to the campaign.

“Harris is putting Florida in play because voters are outright rejecting [Trump’s] and Rick Scott’s backward, toxic policies,” said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins, who was a senior adviser on former Rep. Charlie Crist’s (D-Fla.) unsuccessful 2022 gubernatorial run in Florida.

“Trump and Scott’s extreme positions aren’t just liabilities — they’re political dead weight,” he added.

When President Biden was at the top of the ticket, his campaign announced in April that they were hoping to flip Florida and that the state’s 30 electoral votes were in play.

Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon in June said Florida is not a battleground state, but with Harris now at the top of the ticket, polls have indicated that she’s gaining ground on Trump.

A USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll last month found Harris just 5 points behind Trump among likely Florida voters, 42 percent support to 47 percent, which is just outside the poll’s margin of error. That marks small gains on Trump compared to Biden’s polling in Florida. Just days before dropping out of the race, Biden was trailing Trump by 5.2 percentage points in the state, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s aggregation of polls.

In the Senate race, polls show a similar gap. A Florida Atlantic University poll released last month shows Mucarsel-Powell trailing Scott by 4 points, 47 percent support to 43 percent, among likely voters. The margin of error is 3 points. A separate University of North Florida poll showed a similar gap with a plus or minus 4.6 point margin of error. 

Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign cited both polls in a memo released Tuesday, saying they were “within striking distance” of Scott. 

“With highly popular ballot initiatives for abortion and marijuana on the ballot this November and with a presidential race on the ticket with Scott for the very first time, this election will mark the first time Scott is facing a highly motivated and energized Democratic electorate in Florida,” the memo read.

Democrats are hoping that marijuana on the ballot, along with abortion, could juice the youth vote in November. When Florida’s Supreme Court allowed for the abortion ballot measure, it also opted not to block a ballot initiative that would legalize recreational marijuana use after Republican lawmakers in the state previously rejected the measure.

But Republicans note that Florida voters have a history of voting for liberal ballot measures while backing conservative candidates. In 2020, for example, Trump won the state while the $15 minimum wage measure passed. 

“Obviously both Amendments Three and Four are designed to boost Democratic turnout,” O’Connell noted.

He added: “Everyone is looking for an edge somewhere. The difference is that at this juncture [Florida] is pretty much in the bag for Trump.”