4 possible outcomes of the Trump vs. Harris debate

Appropriately, given the general vibe of 2024, former President Donald Trump announced last week that he had agreed to the Sept. 10 presidential debate in a chaotic Truth Social post that took aim at the “Radical Left Democrats” and “ABC FAKE NEWS.”

This was followed up a few days later with an X post from Vice President Kamala Harris taunting Trump over whether the microphones should be unmuted. “If his own team doesn’t have confidence in him, the American people definitely can’t. We are running for President of the United States. Let’s debate in a transparent way—with the microphones on the whole time,” she wrote.

In the end, the ABC debate next week will have the same rules agreed to by the two sides back when a different person was the Democratic candidate — and the mics will remain muted while the other debater is speaking.

But the social media nonsense is just an appetizer ahead of the coming political and cultural feast — the most consequential presidential debate in decades.

Or at least since June.

Yes, the June 27 CNN debate proved to be a game-changer, upending the presidential cycle and the course of history. President Biden performed so poorly that he was nudged, then pushed, to step aside. It took a few weeks, but those 90 minutes were eventually enough to complete the political extraction.

Back in June, I laid out four possible outcomes for the debate between Trump and Biden — including the one that ultimately unfolded.

So here we go again. The participants in the debate have changed by 50 percent, but the stakes remain equally high in what will likely be the only meeting between Trump and Harris. Here are four possible outcomes, and the political fallout that could come from each:

1. A Harris meltdown could shake up the race one last time

It won’t be the sort of mentally unfit moment crystalizing in front of our eyes that finished Biden, but there’s a scenario where Harris appears flustered, entirely out of her depth and simply not ready for prime time. If Trump remains the relatively disciplined debater that he was in June, it would leave the legacy media no choice but to bite the bullet and admit the truth — that Harris failed in a big way, on the biggest stage.

If that happens, don’t completely rule out the possibility that Harris could find herself off the ticket in short order. As I wrote in July when she was rapidly anointed to the top spot, there are legitimate questions about Harris’s role in covering up Biden's cognitive decline. Yes, we’re very late in the game now, but there is still a scenario where she could be swapped off the ticket, and the Democratic National Committee selects the new nominee.

Of course there’s a time crunch relating to the ballots and early voting, but as we’re seeing with RFK Jr. now, this is not a settled issue. Considering the existential fight the Democrats believe they’re facing in a second Trump presidency, don’t dismiss something shocking happening...like DNC star Michelle Obama stepping in, in a race where she has to do zero debates with Trump?

2. Lose-lose is a slight win for Harris

If Harris fails, but Trump also performs poorly — perhaps returning to his worst instincts and habits — then Harris likely walks away from the debate with a slight edge heading into November. Her surrogates — her buddies in the Acela media — would immediately jump into overdrive, and the entire post-debate conversation would turn to the “lies” and “danger” of Trump.

If we’re being honest, the race is really only going to come down to a small number of swing voters in swing states. These still-somehow-persuadable voters will likely cast their ballot either “for Trump” or “against Trump.” Harris can afford to lose a debate — as long as Trump loses too.

3. Win-win gives Trump a November edge

If Harris hits her talking points, and ABC’s hosts don’t force her off of them, she could easily walk away with a “win” declaration from the left and the press. But if Trump performs like he did in June, that will overshadow Harris’s performance in the eyes of voters who matter.

Politico’s Matthew Kaminski wrote this week that Harris’s “secret power” is that “she is whatever you want her to be.” That may be a “secret power” to the D.C. elite, but to American voters who cares about substance over style, being intentionally vague won’t resonate. And it especially won’t if Trump is his best self — self-assured, strong and precise. Harris can’t get away with being everything to everyone, even if her canned lines and scripted answers land well with cable news pundits.

4. Harris thrives, Trump falters — then get ready for chaos

James Carville gave some advice to Harris in the New York Times this week, including how to “goad” Trump into devolving into “personal attacks.” It’s certainly a path we could see, and if Harris follows the playbook her campaign and advisors lay out for her, and Trump flails through petty tantrums, it’s clearly good for the Harris campaign.

But if that happens, and Trump ultimately knows he lost — look out. He’s not going to go down without a fight, and we’ll have ample time for significant wild circumstances to shake up the race. Sept. 10 is still more than two weeks before the first presidential debate took place in 2016 or 2020. We’ve got time for a September surprise before we even reach October surprise range.

In that sense, the only scenario where the debate doesn’t matter much at all might just be if Trump loses big. That would bring about even more insanity to blunt the potential debate fallout.

Political observers will forever remember Biden saying “we beat Medicare” at the June debate. Next week, we could get another touchpoint for the 2024 chaos time capsule.

Steve Krakauer, a NewsNation contributor, is the author of “Uncovered: How the Media Got Cozy with Power, Abandoned Its Principles, and Lost the People” and editor and host of the Fourth Watch newsletter and podcast.