Georgia tilts toward Trump, NC too close to call in new poll

Former President Trump maintains a slight edge over Vice President Harris in Georgia, but the race in North Carolina remains too close to call, according to a pair of polls released Monday from Quinnipiac University.

Trump leads Harris by 4 points, 49 percent support to 45 percent, in Georgia among likely voters, while independent candidate Cornel West and third-party candidate Claudia De la Cruz each get 1 percent.

Harris, meanwhile, leads Trump by 3 points, 49 percent support to 46 percent, in North Carolina among likely voters, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein getting 1 percent support. Harris’s 3-point lead remains within the margin of error, making the result statistically insignificant.

In hypothetical two-way match-ups in both states, the race is too close to call. In Georgia, Harris gains 1 point, narrowing Trump’s lead to 3 points. In North Carolina, each candidate gains a point, giving Harris the same 3-point lead.

"With 32 Electoral votes to offer between them, North Carolina and Georgia loom large among the potential pathways to the presidency and neither state offers a clear-cut favorite," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a press release.

Trump maintains similar levels of party support in both states, with 93 percent of Republicans backing him in Georgia, and 94 percent of Republicans backing him in North Carolina.

Harris, meanwhile, has unified Democratic support in North Carolina (99 percent), while independents in the state break clearly for Trump, earning 47 percent support to Harris’s 42 percent.

Harris has 94 percent support in Georgia among Democrats, while independents are split, with 46 percent backing each candidate.

These are the first Quinnipiac polls released during the 2024 election cycle surveying likely voters in Georgia and North Carolina and can therefore not be compared to earlier results.

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average in Georgia, Trump and Harris are exactly tied, with 48.4 percent support each. The polling average in North Carolina has Trump ahead by 0.4 percentage points, with 48.4 percent support to Harris’s 48 percent.

Reached for comment in response to these surveys, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung referred The Hill to election handicapper Nate Silver’s latest forecast, which puts Trump’s chances of winning the election at 64.4 percent and his chances of winning North Carolina at 76 percent and in Georgia at 69 percent.

The Quinnipiac polls were conducted Sept. 4-8, 2024, and included 940 likely voters in North Carolina and 969 likely voters in Georgia. The margin of error for both surveys is 3.2 percentage points.

Updated at 7:44 pm.