Harris and Trump's first debate showdown: What to watch
Vice President Harris and former President Trump are set to face off in person for the first, and possibly only, time on Tuesday.
Trump engaged in arguably one of the most influential debates in U.S. history in June against President Biden, which triggered a series of events leading to Biden dropping out of the race and Harris’s ascension to the Democratic nomination. But the situation is much different this time, as Harris has benefited from a boost of momentum in many recent polls.
Here are five things to watch for in the debate:
How does Harris’s performance compare to Biden’s?
While expectations were not particularly high for Biden heading into the June debate, he still fell flat as he struggled to push back against Trump and make coherent statements.
Expectations are certainly much higher for Harris on Tuesday, and observers will be watching primarily to see how she meets the moment.
The vice president has often garnered criticism for flip-flopping on issues, a topic that is likely to come up during the debate.
On the other hand, Harris developed her reputation as a hard-hitting interrogator in the Senate, and she has leaned into her experience as a prosecutor as she goes up against a former president who has been convicted on multiple felonies and faces numerous other legal challenges.
But she will still have to contend with an experienced debater in Trump, who is known for a confrontational style that he displayed onstage in 2016 and 2020. She will also have to decide how best to address the many false claims Trump is likely to make during the debate as he frequently does.
How does Trump attack Harris?
The contest has already turned nasty, with Trump often resorting to personal attacks against Harris, even after calls to tone down the angry rhetoric in the wake of the assassination attempt against the former president.
Trump has used inflammatory language criticizing Harris’s intelligence and background.
He also mocked Harris's racial background at a Black journalists convention in July, claiming she “happened to turn Black” a few years earlier. Harris is biracial, having Indian and African American heritage.
He has also said he doesn’t think she is a “very bright person” and went after her physical appearance.
GOP pundits and allies of Trump have called on him to focus more on policy attacks on Harris rather than personal ones, but whether he can stick to that remains to be seen. The strategy runs the risk of further alienating the former president with female voters, a demographic he has consistently struggled with.
How will Harris defend her policy shifts?
One of the biggest potential vulnerabilities for Harris since she launched her presidential run has been her shifting policy stances.
Harris ran more to the left during the Democratic primaries five years ago but has since taken more moderate positions as she has sought to unify the party and appeal to Republicans and independents disaffected with Trump.
Harris in the past declared her support for banning fracking, but her campaign this year has said she does not support a ban. She had also voiced support for a mandatory gun buyback program for military-style firearms, but a Harris campaign official this cycle said she would not back such a program.
Trump has sought to brand Harris as a far-left candidate, calling her “Comrade Kamala” and tying her to some of the positions she took back in 2019.
Harris defended herself during a sit-down interview with CNN last month, saying her “values have not changed.”
But she will likely be put on defense if Trump seeks to define her as too liberal.
How will the microphone rules play out?
One newer change in presidential debate rules has been the muting of a candidate’s microphone when another candidate is speaking. This stemmed from the aftermath of the 2020 debate in which Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden and moderator Chris Wallace.
However, before this debate, Harris advocated for live mics the entire time, while the Trump campaign pushed to keep them muted.
The Harris campaign held out on signing off on the rule until last week, but eventually agreed.
“Donald Trump is surrendering to his advisors who won’t allow him to debate with a live microphone,” Harris wrote on the social platform X. “If his own team doesn’t have confidence in him, the American people definitely can’t.”
The Harris campaign has told CBS it was told microphones may be unmuted if significant discussion occurs; a candidate will receive a warning from the moderator if they interrupt their opponent; and reporters in the room will report notable side statements.
Does the debate change the trajectory of the race?
Heading into the debate, the race for the White House is as close as it's been this century, and could be poised to be one of the tightest races in U.S. history. Harris may still have momentum, but most polls nationally and in the key swing states show her and Trump basically neck and neck.
The forecast from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ gives Harris a 54 percent chance of winning the election, making her just a slight favorite. The closeness of the race was also underscored this weekend with a poll from The New York Times and Siena College showing the race effectively tied.
Debates are unpredictable, and while some in the end are inconsequential, others can change the trajectory of the race. That was most clearly demonstrated in the aftermath of the June debate between Biden and Trump.
A major stumble by either Harris or Trump could have a ripple effect that could change the course of the race less than two months out from Election Day.