Democrats build momentum in Texas Senate race

Democrats are seeing new signs they could make inroads in the traditionally deep-red state of Texas this fall.

The party has long faced hurdles in the Lone Star State. Winning the White House race this year still looks like a long shot, and the party has experienced disappointing losses in recent cycles after former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) nearly ousted Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2018. 

But new polling now suggests the party is competitive in Texas, both on the presidential level and in the race between Cruz and Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred, fueling hopes that this could be the year the state finally trends in the party’s direction.

“Anybody that says, ‘It just doesn't happen in Texas’ — it doesn't happen until it does,” pollster Brett Loyd said of the possibility Allred scores an upset in the Senate race.

The contest between Cruz and Allred, whose entry last year shifted Cook Political Report’s rating of the Senate seat from “solid” to “likely” Republican, is one of a small handful that have emerged as unexpectedly competitive in the high-stakes fight for the Senate this fall. 

Cruz fended off a strong Democratic challenge six years ago, when O’Rourke came within 3 points of flipping the seat. O’Rourke’s bid benefited from the broader “blue wave” in the midterm election that year, and some in the state are skeptical that Allred can snag the energy he needs to finish the job this cycle. In 2022, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) defeated O’Rourke’s bid for the governor’s mansion by double digits.

But several recent polls show Cruz struggling to cross the 50-point mark, making the Texas Senate race a potential bright spot for Democrats as they battle to hold their slim majority in the upper chamber.

“If you're Ted Cruz or a Ted Cruz fan, if in the closing months of an election, you're not at 50 percent and you're not closing that margin up towards 50 percent, that's going to be problematic,” Loyd said. 

Two new surveys have found Allred at incumbent Cruz’s heels, within the margin of error. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll this week put Allred just 4 points behind, and a University of Houston/Texas Southern University (UH/TSU) survey late last month found the rivals a mere 2 points apart among likely voters. 

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project (UT) survey last week found Allred further behind, trailing Cruz by 8 points among registered voters. But the pollster noted the Democrat has steadily chipped away at the incumbent’s lead since a December poll put him down 16 points — likely as more Democratic voters become familiar with the Dallas-area lawmaker. 

“You’ve got a Senate race you can win,” said Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), Vice President Harris’s running mate, at a campaign stop in Dallas this week.

Republican former Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) has also stepped in with a surprise endorsement of Allred, hailing him as “a tremendous, serious candidate.” 

Allred’s “momentum to defeat Ted Cruz continues to build,” his campaign said in a statement touting the new polls and Cheney’s backing. The Democrat notably outraised Cruz in the second quarter, though Cruz had a larger war chest. 

Monique Alcala, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, stressed in a statement to The Hill that “enthusiasm is high,” as polling suggests a sizable bump in party excitement in the state since Harris launched her fast-tracked bid. 

“For a Democrat to win statewide Texas, it's a big lift. It's a heavy lift. But Colin Allred has pretty skillfully put himself in a position to be in striking distance here,” said Matt Angle, founder and director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic PAC in the state. 

The Texas race has moved further into the spotlight as Democrats fret over the fate of vulnerable incumbents, like Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana. 

"Even if Tester wins, we're still 50-50 in the Senate," Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) said at a recent panel hosted by The Texas Tribune. “The only way we hold [the] majority is if Allred wins, or if we win in Florida." 

Recent polling has also been promising for Democrats in the Sunshine State, where former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) is running to oust incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). There, the Emerson polls found the Senate race in a dead heat, and showed Trump up 5 points in the presidential race.

The chair of Democrats' Senate campaign arm told The Texas Tribune this week that incumbents are the top priority, but that the group is eyeing both Florida and Texas. 

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia told The Hill in a statement that “Cruz’s unpopularity coupled with the strength of Colin Allred’s campaign makes Texas one of Senate Democrats’ top offensive opportunities."

Austin-based Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser, on the other hand, shrugged off the new Lone Star State numbers. 

“I just find it hard to believe that Trump is going to do significantly worse than he did last time in Texas, and the same for Cruz. I just feel like we're in a better position now with the national political landscape,” Steinhauser said, though he acknowledged that “obviously, it would have been better with Biden on the ticket than Harris.”

Before President Biden dropped out of the race, Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages had him 9 points behind former President Trump in Texas. The new Emerson survey found Trump leading Harris in the state by just 4 points, with 50 percent support to 46 percent. Both the UH/TSU poll and the UT poll found similar results, with the Republican up around 5 points in each. 

Texas is “more in play” for Democrats with Harris leading the ticket than it was under Biden, said Andrew Smith, a political science professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley. But Texas has consistently voted red in White House races since 1980, and Smith and other observers in the state remain highly skeptical that this cycle could see a presidential race flip.  

“The joke is that the future of Texas is Democrat, and it always will be,” Smith said.  

Still, a competitive presidential race could be a boost to Allred and other Texas Democrats down the ballot, said Angle.

“That doesn’t mean that [Harris] will carry Texas … but she is liked by our base voters, and will help turnout, for not just Colin Allred, but for every Democrat who’s running in a competitive environment in Texas,” Angle said.  

Flipping the state might feel far off, said Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright, but Democrats have been getting "closer and closer, and pretty soon closer is going to be close enough." 

The Lone Star State, which boasts a whopping 40 Electoral College votes, went to the Republican candidate by 16 points in 2012 and by 9 points in 2016. Biden narrowed that margin to fewer than 6 points in 2020. 

“It's certainly notable that Texas has been won by Republicans in smaller and smaller and smaller numbers every cycle,” said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. “I don't know if this will be the year the Democrats snatch the crown, but certainly we're hearing that it's very competitive.” 

Reinish said he wouldn’t rule out a late-game investment in Texas if the party continues to see promise and progress in the polls. 

“There has been so much speculation in recent years about demographic and other changes in Texas, and is this going to be the year that it flips?” Reinish said. “We’ll see what happens.” 

Saul Elbein contributed.