Alsobrooks leading Hogan by 9 points in Maryland Senate race: Poll

Democratic candidate Angela Alsobrooks is leading Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan by 9 percentage points in a poll of the Maryland Senate race released Wednesday, less than a month before the election.

Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, is backed by 48 percent of likely voters in the poll from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s Institute of Politics. Hogan had support from 39 percent of voters.

Despite trailing in the poll, Hogan is viewed slightly more favorably than Alsobrooks, 53 percent to 49 percent. Still, the percentage of voters who hold an unfavorable view of Hogan is higher than Alsobrooks's unfavorable numbers, at 42 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

Voters are more familiar with Hogan's record, as only 4 percent of participants said they have no opinion of him, compared to 19 percent who say they have no opinion of Alsobrooks.

While Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 9 points in the Senate race, it's a smaller margin than the 22-point lead held by Democrats in the presidential contest. The poll showed Vice President Harris at 57 percent support, compared to 35 percent for former President Trump.

“The deciding factor will be the percentage of Democrats that Hogan can get to go back into that Hogan coalition” that previously elected him, Mileah Kromer, executive director of the UMBC Institute of Politics, told The Washington Post. “That gap has always existed for him, between Democrats who like him and Democrats who are willing to vote for him.” 

Kromer noted that 14 percent of registered Democrats support Hogan, and drawing support away from Alsobrooks among Democrats will be key to pulling off a victory in the race, which could help determine which party controls the Senate.

About a quarter of those supporting Alsobrooks in the poll, 26 percent, said retaining Democratic control of the Senate was a major reason for backing her, while 84 percent of Hogan backers said they supported him because they like him or the Republican Party.

Alsobrooks has a 9.6 percentage point lead in The Hill and Decision Desk HQ's polling index, based on 12 polls of the race.

The Senate hopefuls will face off at a debate in Baltimore on Thursday broadcast by WBAL.

The UMBC survey was conducted Sept. 23-29 among 863 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.