Rove: Paxton primary win could deliver Texas Senate seat to Democrats

GOP strategist Karl Rove cautioned that Republicans risk handing Democrats a Senate seat in Texas if they vote for the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton (R), over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the primary next year.

In an interview on Fox News’s “Sunday Night in America,” host Trey Gowdy asked the Republican strategist about the state of the primary race in Texas and whether he thinks President Trump will ultimately decide to throw his support behind one of the candidates.

Rove said he thinks Trump recognizes that it wouldn’t be wise to endorse Paxton, a fierce ally, who is largely seen as a more polarizing figure than Cornyn.

“I think the president’s going to sit and watch,” Rove said. “He understands that it would be problematic if he were to endorse against a sitting Republican senator, particularly one as respected as John Cornyn.”

Rove prefaced his remarks by noting that he’s a “longtime friend" of Cornyn and has known the incumbent senator for decades.

The strategist, in remarks first highlighted by Mediaite, called the race a “gimme” for Republicans if Cornyn takes the nomination, but he raised concerns about the strength of their Democratic opponents against a possible Paxton nomination.

“And if his principal opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, were to be the nominee — given the scandals, and indictments, and guilty pleas, and girlfriends, and mistresses, and jobs traded for mistresses for influence inside the attorney general’s office on issues important to corrupt, indicted real estate guys — that’s not going to be a pleasant opportunity for Republicans to keep that seat," Rove said, mentioning an alleged affair and corruption allegations against Paxton.

“And we may, if Paxton were the nominee, see the first Democratic victory since 1994, statewide, in Texas,” Rove added.

The White House and Paxton’s campaign did not respond to The Hill's request for comment.

Recent polling suggests Cornyn has closed the gap between him and Paxton, ahead of the GOP primary in March 2026. Earlier polling showed Paxton with a commanding lead.

Polling released by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University earlier this month found Paxton at 34 percent support, Cornyn at 33 percent support and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) at 22 percent support.