Grand National Festival tips: Aintree 4.05 trends – we help you find the winner of the Topham Chase
TOPHAM CHASE
Key trends:
- A good run over the National fences is a plus
- The past five winners ran at Cheltenham
- Look above 141 in the official ratings
- A recent run is important
THE Topham takes in just over a lap of the National course and, like the big race itself, tends to be won by a classier chaser these days.
The trends suggest you want a horse higher than 140 in the official ratings, which cuts out about half of today’s field.
The means Fact Of The Matter, Doitforthevillage, Polidam, Indian Temple, Henryville, Divine Spear, Voix D’Eau, Call It Magic, Dimple, Highland Lodge, Equus Secretus, More Buck’s, Forest Des Aigles, Beau Bay and Kilcrea Vale.
Nine of the past 10 winners had been on a racetrack within a month which rules out Born Survivor and Ballyhill.
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Irish trainers have a poor record so Sub Lieutenant, Cadmium, Peregrine Run and Woods Well have a question mark on that score.
None of the past 10 Topham scorers won on their most recent start which is bad news for San Benedeto.
A run over the National fences is a big pointer to this, so Janika, Adrien Du Pont, Activial and Bigmartre fall short on that score.
Mercian Prince didn’t run at the Cheltenham Festival, so is ruled out.
Trends tip for the Topham Chase
We’re now left with three big-priced runners — Double Shuffle, O O Seven and Flying Angel.
Nicky Henderson has won this race five times, including four since 2006. That gives his O O SEVEN the edge over the other two.
He was out of sorts when pulled up in this race 12 months and is better judged on his excellent fourth in 2017’s renewal where he jumped the fences well.