Grand National Festival tips: Aintree 1.45 trends – we help you find the winner of the Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle

MERSEYRAIL HANDICAP HURDLE

Key trends:

• Stick with horses carrying no more than 11st 2lb

• Horses nine or older have a modest record

• Running at Cheltenham last time is a plus

• Nicky Henderson has a good record

WEIGHT has mattered in this race so we can cross out the top top — Mohaayed and Brio Conti who have too much lead in the saddle.

The age trends means we can lose Mister Fizz, Wait For Me and Three Musketeers as they are too old for this race.

At least three runs earlier in the season has been important, which is a negative for Kobrouk, Mount Mews, Project Bluebook and Joke Dancer.

Mont Des Avaloirs, Point Of Principle, Brecon Hill, Tedham, Caltex, Esprit Du Large, Push The Tempo, Admiral Barratry, and Landsman didn’t run at Cheltenham last time.

That leaves us with a shortlist of Canardier, Sternrubin, Knight In Dubai and Doctor Dex who are coming here after the Festival.

We’re left with four standing — Canardier, Sternrubin, Knight In Dubai and Doctor Dex.

Given that most winners of this were rated south of 140 in the official ratings, KNIGHT IN DUBAI gets the nod.

He was midfield in the Coral Cup last time and has a good each-way shout.