Melbourne Cup 2019: tips and preview for Tuesday’s contest in Australia
IT’S all about Down Under on Tuesday as the race that stops a nation – The Melbourne Cup – takes Australia by storm. As ever it’s a fiercely competitive contest, so here’s a runner-by-runner guide to make it that little bit easier for you. 1. Cross Counter – William Buick/Charlie Appleby Last year’s winner is […]
IT’S all about Down Under on Tuesday as the race that stops a nation – The Melbourne Cup – takes Australia by storm.
As ever it’s a fiercely competitive contest, so here’s a runner-by-runner guide to make it that little bit easier for you.
1. Cross Counter – William Buick/Charlie Appleby
Last year’s winner is back for another crack after running some decent races in the big British Cup contests earlier in the season.
He’s not shown quite the same spark since his Dubai Gold Cup victory back in March but clearly thrives at Flemington and will have been targeted for this.
Any further rain would be a slight concern, though, and it would be some performance to win again with over a stone more on his back.
2. Mer De Glace – Damian Lane/Hisashi Shimizu
Quite brilliant colt from Japan carries the same silks as Cox Plate victor Lys Gracieux – and at this stage it’s difficult to know which horse is better.
Hisashi Shimizu’s contender has won every start bar his debut – and his impressive Caulfield Cup success last time was a career-best by some margin.
He came with a flying run to win from an unpromising position and clearly has bucketloads of talent, so shouldn’t be underestimated even with his big weight.
3. Master Of Reality – Frankie Dettori/Joseph O’Brien
Consistent four-year-old has been there or thereabouts in the big staying races and produced an excellent effort to finish third in the Ascot Gold Cup.
He loves a test of stamina, though, so this speed track may not be ideal, and he has a fair amount of weight to carry – for all that Frankie is a good jockey booking.
4. Mirage Dancer – Ben Melham/Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute, the son of Frankel has shown some fine form in defeat this year and ran a cracker in third behind Mer De Glace in the Caulfield Cup.
That sets him up nicely for this and he can be given a decent chance at a big price if he stays the trip.
5. Southern France – Mark Zahra/Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Another Aussie import having been trained in Ireland with Aidan O’Brien, the progressive four-year-old showed his class with a game win in the Irish St Leger Trial.
He went on to finish third in the real thing, form which would give him a squeak here if he’s kept his level for a new stable.
6. Hunting Horn – Seamie Heffernan/Aidan O’Brien
The first of the Ballydoyle contenders comes into this off the back of an emphatic victory in Group 2 company at Moonee Valley.
He’ll need more here but that was a good effort and he’s always threatened to be top class, so perhaps Australia can see him get there.
His stamina is unproven but if he improves for the trip then he’s in with a shout.
7. Latrobe – James McDonald/Joseph O’Brien
Joseph O’Brien won this two years ago with Rekindling and has a squeak here with his former Irish Derby winner.
A second in the Mackinnnon Stakes last year shows he handles the track well and evidence suggests he’s more than likely to stay.
Needs a bit more on this year’s efforts but O’Brien’s horses tend to flourish abroad and he could run a big race.
8. Mustajeer – Damien Oliver/Kris Lees
Six-year-old was cleverly campaigned in Ireland this year, running decent races in Group company before bolting up off a good mark in the Ebor.
His one run since moving to Australia saw him finish an unlucky sixth in the Caulfield Cup (shuffled back at crucial stage) and had he not gone ten wide he may have given the winner something to think about.
Definitely no forlorn hope with a three-time winner in the saddle.
9. Rostropovich – Dwayne Dunn/David A & B Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Another former Aidan O’Brien inmate, Rostropvich hasn’t shown much since finishing fifth in the race last year and would need a big career-best to take this.
10. Twilight Payment – Hugh Bowman/Joseph O’Brien
Owner Lloyd Williams has launched a massive raid on this race and has employed jockey Hugh Bowman – of Winx fame – to do the business on his six-year-old.
Closely matched with Latrobe, he’d have claims on his best form but may prefer faster ground.
11. Finche – Kerrin McEvoy/Chris Waller
Rangy type gets in off the same weight as when finishing a fine fourth in the race last year.
He’s done enough this season to suggest he’s a better horse, with a good second in the Turbull Stakes followed by a fifth in the Caulfield Cup and he’s likely to be more of a force over this trip.
However, he does keep finding a few too good and could again come unstuck, even accounting for the fact the wizard Kerrin McEvoy is in the plate.
12. Prince Of Arran – Michael Walker/Charlie Fellowes
Talented six-year-old ran a cracker in the race last year, finishing third after taking up the lead inside the final furlong.
Probably needs a little more to come out on top this time but he’s got a better draw and nosed home in the Geelong Cup in his prep.
Definitely in with a shout under just a 2lb penalty.
13. Raymond Tusk – Jamie Spencer/Richard Hannon
Intriguing runner for Richard Hannon, having finished a good fourth in the Ebor when last seen.
He didn’t get much of a run that day and will probably need luck again if Spencer does his usual, but he’s certainly not without a chance if the breaks come.
Four-year-old has always been highly regarded by connections and this is his chance to shine.
FLEMINGTON FANCIES Templegate gives his two cents on the Melbourne Cup
14. Downdraft – John Allen/Joseph O’Brien
The fourth runner for Joseph O’Brien gives him his best chance of a winner.
An emphatic scorer in Group 3 company at this track last time out, he should have no problem with the step up in trip and we know he likes soft ground.
He’s a big improver and has claims if able to get a good early position.
15. Magic Wand – Ryan Moore/Aidan O’Brien
It’s slightly surprising Ryan Moore has opted to ride Magic Wand over shorter-priced stablemate Il Paradiso, but the hint could he worth taking.
Aidan O’Brien’s filly has run some massive races in defeat this year, with a second in the Irish Champion Stakes a real stand-out.
Her stamina is a big concern here but connections think she’ll get the trip and she could be a lively outsider if Moore can negotiate a passage from his wide berth.
16. Neufbosc – Luke Nolen/David A & B Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Outsider has plenty to find on his Geelong Cup 9th and is best watched here.
17. Sound – James Winks/Michael Moroney
Another outsider, it would be a massive shock if he won and his 100-1 price-tag says it all.
18. Surprise Baby – Jordan Childs/Paul Preusker
Five-year-old has only had five starts but he’s impressed in all of them.
A victory last time out in the Lexus Bart Cummings was the perfect stepping stone to this race and he certainly has claims off a very nice weight.
He stays two miles and is extremely progressive, but soft ground is an unknown.
The international raiders have started their assault on the spring carnival.
Japanese Mer De Glace produced a superb staying performance to win the Caulfield Cup. pic.twitter.com/9EaX1n7PbH
— 7HorseRacing
(@7horseracing) October 19, 2019
19. Constantinople – Joao Moreira/David A & B Hayes & Tom Dabernig
Yet another former Aidan O’Brien inmate, this one has a real chance.
Second in his final three starts in England (the best his second to Logician), he started off his Australian career with a fine effort in the Caulfield Cup, coming to late to grab fourth behind Mer De Glace.
That was an excellent display on just his first start Down Under and there’s sure to be more to come over this trip – provided he can control his quirks.
20. Il Paradiso – Wayne Lordan/Aidan O’Brien
St Leger also-ran is tried in blinkers here for Aidan O’Brien, and if that ekes out a little improvement then he could go very close.
Since stepped up to staying trips he’s progressed rapidly, winning a Curragh handicap by 14 lengths before running Stradivarius close in the Lonsdale Cup.
That form entitles him to big respect and he’s got globetrotter Wayne Lordan on board, so a big run wouldn’t surprise.
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21. Steel Prince – Brett Prebble/Anthony Freedman
Five-year-old was in decent form earlier in the year but in lesser races than this and he’ll need something special to finish in the frame.
22. The Chosen One – Timothy Clark/Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Beat Prince Of Arran in the Herbert Power in October and has claims on that, but he’s not been as good since and this is his first time at this trip.
23. Vow And Declare – Craig Williams/Danny O’Brien
Consistent four-year-old has very strong claims on his second in the Caulfield Cup last time and if as good over this longer trip, will hold an obvious chance.
His fourth in the Turnbull before that was also a very good run and he is one of the stand-out contenders from the bottom of the weights with Craig Williams in the saddle.
24. Youngstar – Tommy Berry/Chris Waller
Well-drawn five-year-old has been in decent form at Randwick over the past few weeks but this is a far tougher test and victory would be a big surprise.
Verdict
A thrillingly competitive contest in store.
Many of the big players warmed up for this in the Caulfield Cup and, of those, Mer De Glace was by far the most convincing.
He’s a very progressive horse and had to come very wide to make his challenge, so has an obvious chance here.
However, he has a big weight and this trip could test his stamina, so he’s passed over in favour of MUSTAJEER.
Kris Lees’ contender won the Ebor when with Ger Lyons and produced a fine run on his first start Down Under, finishing sixth to Mer De Glace when denied a clear run.
He should have more to come now returned to a staying trip and can collect another big pot.
Of the others, Surprise Baby and Vow And Declare make the most appeal.