TV debate is the BIGGEST risk for Boris Johnson in this election…but he must take it
IT will be the biggest moment of the election so far.
On Tuesday night, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn will go head to head in an ITV debate.
It will be the first time in British electoral history that the two contenders for No10 have debated on TV in this way. In a campaign that’s so far lacked an electrifying moment, it could provide the spark.
This debate is THE BIGGEST RISK that Boris has taken in this election.
There is a reason why none of his predecessors as PM agreed to such an encounter. But Boris’s team calculated that it was worth it.
Why? Because it enables them to frame this election as a choice as to WHO DO YOU WANT to be Prime Minister: Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn.
DEBATE DANGER
Boris has a 22 POINT LEAD on this question and asking it brings 2017 Blues who have gone over to both the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party back into the Tory fold.
Tuesday night’s format — which did not include an invite for Lib Dem chief Jo Swinson — should favour Boris. There will be half an hour on Brexit then half an hour on domestic issues.
Given how convoluted Labour’s Brexit position is, the audience’s patience with Corbyn may well have run out before the debate moves on to domestic policy.
The danger for Boris is that Corbyn uses Tuesday night to establish himself as the only person who can stop Boris from spending Christmas at Chequers.
Right now, the Tories are benefitting from a split opposition. If Corbyn can use Tuesday night to squeeze down the Lib Dem vote then that will make it that much harder for the Tories to win a majority.
Corbyn could also use the debate to force his opponent to defend the cuts of the past nine years.
In this campaign, Boris has been talking more about his record over the past 100 days rather than the Tory one over the past nine years.
If Corbyn can make Boris defend “austerity” he will dent his appeal in the Labour seats where the Tories need to win a majority.
Those helping prepare Boris for the debate expect Corbyn to lean heavily on people’s personal experience of the cuts to try to force him to engage on these questions.
The other risk for Boris is, oddly, his lead on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister.
Viewers will expect him to be better than Corbyn. It is not quite England playing Montenegro, but a narrow victory won’t be seen as hugely impressive.
“You don’t win elections on debates,” one close Boris ally tells me. But as the Tory leader walks on stage on Tuesday night, he will be acutely conscious that you can lose them on debates.
If Boris bests Corbyn on Tuesday, he will still be on course for the majority he needs to break the Brexit logjam.
Yet if he stumbles, then that will give Corbyn the opening he craves.
Nigel has an effin’ problem
NIGEL Farage is not a happy man right now. One confidant of his tells me the Brexit Party leader is: “Angry and swearing a lot.”
Farage has been infuriated by the pressure put on him, including by some of his most established donors, to stand down in this election. He has, reluctantly, pulled his candidates from Tory-held seats.
But this means they are still competing in the Labour-held marginals which will determine the election.
“There will be seats the Brexit Party stops us from winning just by standing,” laments one Tory intimately involved in running the party’s election campaign.
The Tories do, however, hope they can squeeze the Brexit Party down further now Farage has effectively admitted that voting for the Brexit Party might result in no Brexit and a Corbyn government.
They also think that as this fact dawns on more Brexit Party candidates – and it becomes more apparent in various seats that all they can do is stop the Tories winning – more will cease campaigning.
A sensible measure
THE Tory manifesto will contain a commitment to “ban public bodies from imposing their own direct or indirect boycotts, sanctions or disinvestment against a foreign country”.
This will prevent local councils and other bodies from boycotting Israel or having their pension funds divest from it, something that is currently subject to a court case.
Given the one-sided hostility to Israel displayed by various left-wing groups, this is a sensible measure.
We don’t need local authorities trying to run their own foreign policies.
Nov 25 for cautious Tory manifesto
THE Cabinet has been invited to CCHQ this weekend to read the Tory manifesto.
It is very “Land of Hope and Boris” I am told by one of those familiar with its contents. He has told those working on it that he wants lots of hope and positivity in it.
The exact publication date is still to be determined. But I understand that Monday, November 25 is currently pencilled in as the most likely launch date.
The Tory document will be fairly cautious – no one on the Tory side wants to repeat the errors of the 2017 manifesto. By contrast, the Labour manifesto will be full of big, eye-catching offers.
There is mounting Cabinet concern that the Tories have nothing in their manifesto with the cut-through of Labour’s offer of free broadband.
‘NOTHING IN LIFE IS FREE’
Part of Labour’s aim will be to provoke unpopular businesses into getting into an argument with them.
The Tories think Labour’s big offers will be undermined by their lack of economic credibility.
They believe, as one strategist puts it, that voters know that “nothing in life is free” so someone is going to have to foot the bill for this Labour spending binge.
The Tories have been encouraged by the negative reaction from voters in their focus groups to Labour’s plan for a four-day week.
They think this highlights Labour’s vulnerability.
Positive on policies
ISAAC Levido, the Australian drafted in to run the Tory election effort, has given Ministers six rules to obey between now and polling day:
- Unity and discipline are key and must be demonstrated.
- Competence is king and voters can smell it.
- Tone is critical, need hope and positivity.
- Communicate the why not just the what.
- It is the voters not the commentators who are your audience, don’t get stuck in process.
- Election must be framed as a clear choice, must emphasise the consequences of who is going to be PM.
These rules explain why the Tories are so keen to have Boris remain positive while ministers attack Corbyn and his policies.
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I am told he has told colleagues he didn’t realise quite how much work Dilyn, the rescue puppy he and his partner Carrie Symonds have adopted, would be.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.
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